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Location: Free State of Florida, Support our police
5,860 posts, read 3,297,839 times
Reputation: 9146
Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon
You have a point.
2016 Florida Early and By Mail Voting
Republicans 2,533,362
Democrats 2,629,812
Net Advantage Democrats +96,450
Result: Trump +112,911
This is because independent and unaffiliated voters tend to go Republican plus Republicans vote in person more.
2020 Florida Early and By Mail Voting
Republicans 2,970,131
Democrats 3,131,493
Net Advantage Democrats +161,362
Result???
This suggest Democrats "might" be slightly outperforming 2016. Republicans can of course hope that they win the independent and unaffiliated voters again and of course they need to win the voting on election day votes. It is possible that Democrats are voting earlier than normal and have less votes on election day.
You are totally wrong. The reason being is that early voting is not over. Trump is winning Florida. My real concern is the rust belt. I have my doubts now about those states. We shall see. I predicted Trump. Now I can't say that with confidence at all. In fact I would be leaning towards a Biden win.
The big problem for Republicans in florida are Puerto Rican Transplants from Puerto Rico and a slew of Jewish and Puerto Rican retirees from the northeast. These thee blocs can tip the scale for Florida to become democrat.
Florida is going to be close. If you gave me even odds.....id probably take it and bet on Biden. 60% odds a biden win I think. 40% chance Trump takes it. For Biden losing Florida wouldn't mean losing the election. But for Trump winning it would put him back into being slightly competitive. By contrast we can look at Texas-Its got the same odds of Biden winning Texas as Trump has of winning Florida. And if Trump were to lose Texas-its all over. Done.
Looking forward to seeing how this goes. Hopefully we will know the answer in a few weeks as everything gets counted up. Some we will know on election night, but I suspect given how closely things are polling....we wont know the winner for at least a week.
Its obvious that nobody has any idea since there are a lot of no party votes in the mix. Unless someone has insight into which way those are breaking, this speculation is pointless.
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