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Tomorrow, we will hit 100,000 cases in one day for the first time but the daily deaths will probably plateau around the 1,000 mark (mostly over 70 with preexisting conditions). There is no chance that the U.S. will tolerate another lockdown like we had in March and April after the media endorsed all those protests all summer, so it's herd immunity, vaccine, or bust at this point!
Language matters.
Moscow issued lockdown orders. One needed permission to leave their residence to buy a loaf of bread.
There were no lock downs , anywhere in the US.
The Federal Government issued guidelines for distancing and gathering. The Federal Government’s guidelines asked people to comply with state orders. No two states issued the same orders. Infection rates, population densities, public transportation, the number of arrivals from hot zones in Europe and preference of local populations matter.
While most states issued restrictions over time, no state, county or local government ordered a lockdown.
Most states take a superficial stab at contact tracing of positive cases. No telling how truthful responses are.
Right now, based on responses, SMALL PROTRACTED INDOOR GATHERINGS appear to be the primary source of the current surge.
Such gatherings may be occurring in the home, in a restaurant, a bar or ......
“The United States surpassed its record for single-day reported infections of the coronavirus Thursday, counting more than 88,900 cases, and pushing the total number of infections toward 9 million.
The country also tallied more than 1,000 deaths related to the virus for the second consecutive day. At least 228,000 fatalities have been linked to the virus since February.”
Sounds scary, so we need to stop testing.
Meanwhile the mortality rate for this virus has plummeted all over the world. Which means people under 45 years old have like a 0.05% chance of dying from the virus. Run and hide I say, seriously.... run and hide.
More testing than ever. Daily death toll far below the 2000 a day average during April. I don’t wear a mask seeing that the death toll/% is so low. Less than 1/10th of 1%.
My state has more deaths this year due to car accidents.
Sweet! I will now drive drunk because the death toll from drunk driving accidents is so low. Only about 10K lives per year, which is basically nothing.
Again, herd immunity, remains a myth. There is no certainty about the duration of immunity. Could be weeks or months or years or forever. That tests may show false positives complicates matters.
Viruses mutate because that is what they do.
The formulation of the annual flu shot in the Western Hemisphere varies by year based on the mutations and dominance of viruses in the Southern Hemisphere. About 50% of the US population are inoculated each year.
There is no herd immunity.
Seems to me those inclined to not protect others by wearing a mask and / or avoid protracted indoor gatherings are more likely to use “herd immunity” to rationalize their choices.
Deaths are always a lagging indicator, usually lagging by about 3 weeks.
it's looking like ~10 days now. But use 3 weeks.
If cases started ramping up 7 weeks ago (and they've doubled over that period), then why haven't the deaths continued to increase since 10/1 and why haven't they doubled?
Why has the hospitalization rate declined overall since 9/1? And even when it did increase, it only rose 16% over Sept 1?
This is the strangest disease. At my husband's company every employee, all 3000 of them, have been tested every 2 weeks since June. They have had about 350 positives, of which 90% were totally without symptoms. The ones who did have any symptoms were extremely mild (such as, a bit of a headache and runny nose), but not one person was hospitalized or even saw a doctor for symptoms.
Outside of husband's company, I've known only two people who tested positive with uncomfortable symptoms. They were not hospitalized.
Well, herd immunity does not really exist without a vaccine. And there is no vaccine yet. And once it's available , it will take time to ramp up and to vaccinate any significant fraction of the population. There were no real lockdowns in US in the first place. Lastly, it shouldn't really be about lockdowns at this point , it's smart behavior vs stupid one. Unfortunately, the stupid ruins it for everybody.
Wonder how many extended families will throw caution to the wind and gather at inside tables for Thanksgiving.
I recall such a gathering over Easter by a large extended family in NJ That dinner, followed by card games and desert, took out mom, dad, grandparents, aunts, uncles and hospitalized some under 40 in the following weeks.
I do not understand those who are willing to potentially risk their own lives and the lives of their families to break bread.
Where I am in CT the hospitals are not overwhelmed yet but the numbers are going up every day by a lot. Plus there have been a few outbreaks in nursing homes.
I'm in CT too. Our local hospital is dead. Empty parking lot. They have been going up by 10-20 a day, in a state of 3.5 million.
Total hospitalizations now are 10% of the peak in Spring.
If you listened to local news, you'd think the apocalypse was approaching. Absurd.
This is the strangest disease. At my husband's company every employee, all 3000 of them, have been tested every 2 weeks since June. They have had about 350 positives, of which 90% were totally without symptoms. The ones who did have any symptoms were extremely mild (such as, a bit of a headache and runny nose), but not one person was hospitalized or even saw a doctor for symptoms.
Outside of husband's company, I've known only two people who tested positive with uncomfortable symptoms. They were not hospitalized.
It's hard to understand what's going on.
This happens with flu too. Immune system takes care of it. No symptoms.
Quote:
As many as 50% of infections with normal seasonal flu may be asymptomatic, which may in part be due to pre-existing partial immunity [1]. Asymptomatic patients shed virus and can transmit the disease, but
not at the same rate as symptomatic individuals, which creates an invisible “reservoir” for the virus.
We don't obsessively test healthy people for the flu, though.
Also the 32ct+ tests are so sensitive, they could be picking up dead virus.
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