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Here is a map of early voter turnout as compared to O'Rourke's run in 2018 and his increase over Clinton margins 2016. My final conclusions....Texas is actually going to be very close
Nothing funnier than Dems thinking that had a chance in Texas.
It wasn't close lol
But it’s getting closer with every election.
As recently as 2004 Dubya won Texas by more than Kerry won California. In 2020 Trump carried Texas by 600,000 while he lost California by 5 million. The Republicans haven’t won the national popular vote since.
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Originally Posted by Bureaucat
But it’s getting closer with every election.
As recently as 2004 Dubya won Texas by more than Kerry won California. In 2020 Trump carried Texas by 600,000 while he lost California by 5 million. The Republicans haven’t won the national popular vote since.
Republican candidates for President won by the following over time.
2000: 21.32%
2004: 22.87%
2008: 11.8%
2012: 15.78%
2016: 9%
2020: 5.8%
And on top of that, Cruz beat Beto by less than 3%!! Hell, in ordinary times, he should have beaten Beto by at least low 10s, and he could only get 2.8???
Texas may well go blue in 2024, and a definite swing-state by 2028.
Nothing funnier than Dems thinking that had a chance in Texas.
It wasn't close lol
Texas is only 2 points more Republican than Florida. It is now a five point state and trending away from Rs quickly. It was a 16 point R state in '12, 9 point R in '16, and down to 5 point R in '20.
What makes it more notable is that the minors coming into voting age are demographically much less likely to vote R, the state is attracting a lot of recent college grads who are less likely to vote R, and their are huge numbers of people moving to Texas mid career from Dem leaning cities and states. If it keeps shifting 3.5% every Presidential cycle, the state would go blue in 2028. That of course depends on the D/R candidates not being particularly well suited or poorly suited to the state. But by the 2030 Governors race, Texas will likely be blue. The significance is Dems could lose Wisconsin, Michigan, an Pa combined if Texas fell into their column.
I suspect in the long run TX and FL could switch places, with FL becoming the main fortress in the R column, and TX becoming the largest swing state up for grabs. Demographically, TX looks very similar to CA on paper. Low turnout among hispanic voters is the only thing keeping it red at this point.
Florida has/is increasing it's republican voters 'substantially'. The was a 350K registered democrat advantage in 2016 now it's less than 150K. Independents still decide Florida.
Florida has/is increasing it's republican voters 'substantially'. The was a 350K registered democrat advantage in 2016 now it's less than 150K. Independents still decide Florida.
Florida will prove interesting. I think it is a very consistent but small R lean. Two things really helped Rs in 2020- Trump was very popular among portions of the electorate that do not always turn out and Democrats had ceased voter registration drives and in person campaigning due to Covid.
In some ways Texas and Florida are opposite sides of the same coin. Texas has influxes of West coasters and young voters who are moving it D while Florida has huge influxes of Northern and Midwestern retirees who help it mover more R than existing/previous stats would predict.
Florida has/is increasing it's republican voters 'substantially'. The was a 350K registered democrat advantage in 2016 now it's less than 150K. Independents still decide Florida.
And when all of those retirees pass away......?
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