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Old 11-02-2020, 05:48 PM
 
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What will you be looking at to see if a discernible trend is developing that would offer indications for how things are likely to trend in other states that are yet to announce their results?

For example, would the margin of victory compared to the RCP average be any type of indicator? I don't think the demographic reporting will be available immediately to get some idea as to black and Hispanic voting trends.

Exit polling was completely off in 2016 I believe.

What other pointers are there for how how the voting is trending?
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Old 11-02-2020, 05:50 PM
 
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I think we should be wary of trends, and be wary of anyone trying to call it early.

One analyst was saying that it may look early like a Dem win, but that may shift to Rep as the count continues.
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Old 11-02-2020, 05:57 PM
 
Location: Anderson, IN
6,855 posts, read 2,824,169 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uhuru View Post
What will you be looking at to see if a discernible trend is developing that would offer indications for how things are likely to trend in other states that are yet to announce their results?

For example, would the margin of victory compared to the RCP average be any type of indicator? I don't think the demographic reporting will be available immediately to get some idea as to black and Hispanic voting trends.

Exit polling was completely off in 2016 I believe.

What other pointers are there for how how the voting is trending?

Well, I'll be playing an election night drinking game so I'll be looking at my breathalyzer frequently so I don't go too far. Depending on the bobbleheads...talking heads...I mean talking heads on the TV I may have to call the game early so I don't drink myself to death.
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Old 11-02-2020, 05:58 PM
 
62,621 posts, read 28,812,502 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uhuru View Post
What will you be looking at to see if a discernible trend is developing that would offer indications for how things are likely to trend in other states that are yet to announce their results?

For example, would the margin of victory compared to the RCP average be any type of indicator? I don't think the demographic reporting will be available immediately to get some idea as to black and Hispanic voting trends.

Exit polling was completely off in 2016 I believe.

What other pointers are there for how how the voting is trending?
Why does one's racial group have to be brought into this? I'm sick of identity politics. We are all Americans, period!
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Old 11-02-2020, 06:02 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Oldglory View Post
Why does one's racial group have to be brought into this? I'm sick of identity politics. We are all Americans, period!
There have been several polls that suggest increased support from blacks and Hispanics for Trump. If that in fact materializes, it might suggest that would occur in other swing states which, in turn, could impact the results.
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Old 11-02-2020, 06:03 PM
 
Location: Santa Monica
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In the East polls close at...

Virginia: 7 pm EST
Georgia: 7 pm EST
Ohio: 7:30 pm EST
North Carolina: 7:30 pm EST
Pennsylvania: 8 pm EST

Florida is 7 pm EST except for the panhandle (which is a Republican stronghold) at 8 pm EST

Those 6 states are 111 EC votes. Biden desperately needs at least 70% of those electoral votes (77) to have a shot.
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Old 11-02-2020, 06:14 PM
 
622 posts, read 407,835 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by No_Recess View Post
In the East polls close at...

Virginia: 7 pm EST
Georgia: 7 pm EST
Ohio: 7:30 pm EST
North Carolina: 7:30 pm EST
Pennsylvania: 8 pm EST

Florida is 7 pm EST except for the panhandle (which is a Republican stronghold) at 8 pm EST

Those 6 states are 111 EC votes. Biden desperately needs at least 70% of those electoral votes (77) to have a shot.
Virginia is going to go blue and PA we will not know the final result until a couple of days after election night.
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Old 11-02-2020, 06:30 PM
 
622 posts, read 407,835 times
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Originally Posted by Aville239 View Post
No, he doesn't. Biden wins without FL, OH or PA but he will still likely get 2 or 3 of them. If Biden gets PA or FL early, Trump has no path to victory.
This map is very revealing. Biden can lose every state shown as a toss up and if he wins two of the blue wall states and AZ, he wins.
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Old 11-02-2020, 06:37 PM
 
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Biden can also win if Texas flips. So Id watch Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania. While Biden can win without them, if he takes any of them its probably over with except the whining.



As for early indications? Thats a tough one. Id look at the in person voting vs's the mail in ballots to get some clarity on whats going on. And of course watch how much the polls were off. If its pretty close, then Trumps done. If its as far off as it was in 2016? Trumps still lost. If its higher then even that record poor year...then he might win. But in the end it really will come down to a few states.
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Old 11-02-2020, 06:38 PM
 
19,394 posts, read 6,455,263 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uhuru View Post
There have been several polls that suggest increased support from blacks and Hispanics for Trump. If that in fact materializes, it might suggest that would occur in other swing states which, in turn, could impact the results.
Yes, it could prove critical. If 10% of black voters go for Trump, that could swing the election - particularly PA and FL. Similar for Hispanics in FL - could swing the election.

How ironic if the minority groups that Dems feel “entitled” to end up being the ones who hand the election to President Trump.
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