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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One thing that does seem clear in the Election Day numbers is that the GOP vote came out early but the vote is becoming less Republican (and more indie) over the course of the day.
e.g. in Broward County (the rare FL county where Democrats are winning the Election Day vote)
From 7am to 1030am, the vote was D38/R34/I28 (D +4)
From 1030 to 1230pm, it was D39/R31/I31 (D +8)
From 1230 to 3pm, it was D37/R26/I37 (D +11)
Quote:
From 3pm to 4pm, Broward was D41/R26/I33 (D +15). So this gap keeps growing.
Last edited by JohnBoy64; 11-03-2020 at 02:04 PM..
Reason: update
And what number does this need to be for a Trump win?
It depends. These are the party registrations of the voters voting in Florida. There are three categories, Republican, Democrat and Independent (NPA). The basic assumption is that the Democrats and Republicans vote pretty closely with their party affiliation, which usually tends to be pretty close to right. The Independents tend to break pretty evenly as well. In 2016, they went +1.56% for Hillary.
A lot of the polls have some very heavily skewed assumptions, which is where a lot of these Biden +17 type polls are coming from. So if the assumption of a pollster, say Nate Silver, assumes that 85% of Republicans vote for Trump, 95% of Democrats vote for Biden and the Independents break for Biden by 2-1, then Biden wins. Yay!
But that is not right. They hate Trump and they are projecting their hatred onto the electorate. What they do not seem to realize is that many voters are positively horrified by the lockdowns that the Democrats continue to be eager for, and also their anti-American culture shock agenda, such as their the intolerance of free speech and religion, and also the increasing tendency towards mob tactics and the burning and looting of our cities. They also are appalled by the Democrats willingness to basically re-write out constitution and effectively end the American experiment. I could go on.
The Democrats are not very popular with the people right now. We will find out later what these splits were, but I am guessing that more Democrats vote Republican than vis-versa and that the independents break for Trump, I will not venture a guess how much. Also, the turnout by Republicans is poised to be higher than that of the Democrats, which I am pretty sure the pollsters and the Democrat operatives never imagined was possible.
So, not to be a smart-alek, but for Trump to win, the net, net, net of all these numbers and crossovers and what not needs to be 1 vote more for Trump than Biden for him to win.
The party registration numbers give us a proxy, and for conservatisms sake, it probably makes sense to just assume that all Democrats and Republicans vote for their side and the independents go 50-50. Unless the vote is pretty close, that calculation will probably foretell the winner.
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