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Old 11-05-2020, 07:43 AM
 
6,293 posts, read 2,855,026 times
Reputation: 7210

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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGoodTheBadTheUgly View Post
Biden was up 10 points, 15 points, 17 points..etc...Trump had no chance it was going to be a blood bath..

What little creditability these morons had it’s all gone...they’re eating crow this morning!
Who is paying them? And WHY? I could throw darts at a board and make better predictions that they did.
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Old 11-05-2020, 07:48 AM
 
Location: Bel Air, California
23,769 posts, read 28,950,682 times
Reputation: 37326
OP, you'll always have this thread to cling to through the deluge of your tears.
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Old 11-05-2020, 07:50 AM
 
Location: STL area
2,125 posts, read 1,385,959 times
Reputation: 3994
It went the same way as the big red wave I saw predicted all over the place...
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Old 11-05-2020, 07:53 AM
 
Location: Richmond, VA
838 posts, read 552,161 times
Reputation: 2818
Is this really what you are hanging your hat on? Is it possible that the forecasts were right but there was a push for Republicans to go out and vote which narrowed the gap?

Unless you agree with others that say Republicans decided not to vote because all hope was supposedly lost. I guess 'fake news' only matters when it is convenient. The fake news made me abstain - waaahhhaahh.
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Old 11-05-2020, 02:08 PM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
30,707 posts, read 79,581,771 times
Reputation: 39445
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShanIAmVA View Post
Do you even know how ridiculous this reads? Are you saying you think Trump supporters stayed home and didn't vote for a man that appeared to be down in the polls?

Wow, what a great way to support your candidate.
This has been discussed as a fact for decades. If people think their candidate has no chance, they will not bother to vote. Also people who are not sure, want to be part of the winning team, so they tend to vote for the person they perceive is most likely to win. Seems dumb, but it happens. Thus, it is always beneficial to create the appearance that the other candidate has no chance. This is why there was a big push to prohibit announcing outcomes of Eastern States before the Western states voting ended. The push died probably because the presidential election is consistently decided by a few states in the mid-west.



This is why the right is so upset about AP calling Arizona for Biden so early and with such little reporting (and in fact, well before many of purportedly more liberal biased news sources called it), but leaving Florida sitting as contested for hours and then suddenly calling it for Trump even though nothing had changed. (Why didn't they call it earlier?). I think there is another state Republicans are complaining was left sitting too long when the win was obvious, but I do not remember which one it was. Note - I do no not really buy into the scandal over this, but I am using it as an example of the fact that the impact of people believing their candidate cannot win is well known. That is the basis of the Republican claim that this was biased action and election influencing by the AP.


However the poll games can backfire at least to some extent. With me it did in 2016. I really disliked both candidates and was not going to vote for a president that year. However when the polls said Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide, I did no want her to think she had a national referendum, so I decided to do my part to lessen that landslide. It could not hurt since Trump was not going to win, I could not end up having to accept responsibility for having helped elect him. Well - Oooops. And I live in Michigan which was critical to his win and where he won by few thousand votes. Yup, I certainly do have to own up to responsibility for having helped elect him, but it was entirely because the poll reporting was false.


In the end I did not feel bad about it. I like some of his policies even if he remained as despicable as I believed him to be. I also like having a more conservative supreme court - a lot. I really dislike when the supreme court tries to step outside their role and be policy makers. But that is beside the point. The fact is, yes, polls can impact voting.
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Old 11-05-2020, 03:39 PM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
30,707 posts, read 79,581,771 times
Reputation: 39445
Quote:
Originally Posted by hellopity View Post
MI will not be close. Wayne Co only reporting 68%.
Michigan remains close even at 99% reporting. No longer too close to call, but still very close. I do not think it woudl have been close if the governor had not been such a bungling powermonger/control freak. I do not think James would have done so well either.
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Old 11-05-2020, 03:40 PM
 
Location: Arizona
6,081 posts, read 2,683,854 times
Reputation: 5839
We didn't need a blue wave a drop in the pond has sent Donnie packing
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Old 11-05-2020, 03:49 PM
 
Location: East Lansing, MI
28,355 posts, read 16,317,241 times
Reputation: 10467
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens View Post
Michigan remains close even at 99% reporting. No longer too close to call, but still very close. I do not think it woudl have been close if the governor had not been such a bungling powermonger/control freak. I do not think James would have done so well either.
~150K votes isn't really "close", IMO.
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Old 11-05-2020, 04:04 PM
 
34,274 posts, read 19,312,630 times
Reputation: 17256
I think I qualify as one of the left wingers, and I posted about it so I will give this topic a shot.

Historical data says that when voting numbers go up Democrats do better. But i think that isnt really applying as much. Historically the Republicans have been really good at getting more folks to the ballots. This time they REALLY did a far better ground job then anytime they have ever done so. Also I think most people underestimated just how little covid would matter to Republicans. A pretty effective bit of propaganda at the time, that is now starting to really fall apart as cases explode. But thats now, not a week ago.

But also....Trump had a 10% chance of winning. Thats...not 0. And most folks thought if he lost it would be a bigger loss because of that. The right wing folks lying to polling companies didn't help. I think I assumed that dishonesty was more limited to people here then to the general Republicans answering polling questions. Apparently not.

And...Devoys sabotage of the mail vote added to it as well, although not as much as some folks imply I think.

Still looks like a Biden win, but its a nail biter. I expected a day to wait for results. So....many things are as expected, but most thought they would be resolved faster. A couple surprises.

Last edited by greywar; 11-05-2020 at 05:21 PM..
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Old 11-05-2020, 11:47 PM
 
Location: Rural Wisconsin
19,649 posts, read 9,192,474 times
Reputation: 38048
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShanIAmVA View Post
Do you even know how ridiculous this reads? Are you saying you think Trump supporters stayed home and didn't vote for a man that appeared to be down in the polls?

Wow, what a great way to support your candidate.
Over the years, I have read MANY posts from liberals in red states and conservatives in blue states who say they don't bother to vote because it would be pointless.

It is not much of a stretch to extend that to someone living in Wisconsin, for example, who saw media report after media report saying that "all" the polls have Biden with at least a 10-point lead. If someone thinks that it is useless for them to express their opinion, then I don't think it is a stretch to think that they won't make the effort, no matter how small.

Personally, I don't think that way, as I vote just to express my opinion, even if I know that I am in the minority -- but, again, MANY people don't think like that.
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