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Polls should not even exist, we dont need a magic 8 ball which I am sure persuades many to vote certain ways based on the probably outcome. Mail in ballots should not be allowed either unless there is an extenuating circumstance. Stop being lazy and get you a** to the polls on election day and vote. As for the states counting the ballots, it should be the military or some other Govt agency that can be held accountable.
I really do think Donald Trump breaks the polls when he is on the ballot. Obviously there were some issues in 2016 and now 2020 but the 2018 polls weren't bad. In 2024 assuming that there isn't a Trump on the ballot or someone equally polarizing it will be fascinating to see how they shake out.
I do have to say though Republicans really don't have any room to complain about the polls. A common theme I read on this board is that when Trump voters get called they lie about who they are voting for. If you aren't going to be truthful then how can you expect the polls to be right?
Biden is ahead 2.6% right now and that is growing as more of CA/NY/etc comes in which count slowly.
Ok. I've been looking at RCP, which puts Biden at a 2.4% popular vote lead so far. I'm curious to know where the outstanding votes are in California (they are about 75% counted), but something tells me that they aren't in primarily blue areas of the state as such a trend would mean that Biden won California by an outstanding margin (even greater than his 2/1 win last time around), which would seem to go against some of the other trends nationwide where Trump support has actually increased in number (when many were predicting it would decrease tremendously on the way to a Democrat blue wave). NY is almost 100% counted per RCP.
I have to agree with you, especially since we had a few pollsters that were able to get it right. After screwing up royally in 2016, you should have thought that the other pollsters would have followed the lead of some of their peers that were more on the ball, to include Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc. Those pollsters--then and now--were much closer than many of the other pollsters were saw then and now.
Trafalger was still far off. Trump did not lead the popular vote. USC Dornslife will probably be closest when they said Biden would be at a 5 point lead after accounting for 'shy Trump voters.' But at this point we still need all the vote counted to see where it actually falls. Those 2-3 point leads look fine on paper but pretty much take days to solidify while votes are counted. Trump will have much better numbers than 2016 but Biden basically will go higher than Clinton everywhere except Florida- and he probably had as many actual votes as her there.
I fail to see how the poll results, and MSM coverage, benefited the Democrats and Biden.
If anything, it hurt Biden and other Democrats running. The MSM/results of polls energized the Trump fan base to show up and vote to counter what the media was portraying, while for Biden's base, they knew from 2016, it wasn't trustworthy and nothing could be took for granted.
Trafalger was still far off. Trump did not lead the popular vote. USC Dornslife will probably be closest when they said Biden would be at a 5 point lead after accounting for 'shy Trump voters.' But at this point we still need all the vote counted to see where it actually falls. Those 2-3 point leads look fine on paper but pretty much take days to solidify while votes are counted. Trump will have much better numbers than 2016 but Biden basically will go higher than Clinton everywhere except Florida- and he probably had as many actual votes as her there.
I haven't seen a Trafalgar national poll, so can't comment on that. I'm referring more so to Trafalgar state polls, which seemed to be much more accurate than the rest generally speaking, even in states where Donald Trump will likely lose.
I fail to see how the MSM coverage/poll results benefited the Democrats/Biden.
If anything, it hurt Biden and other Democrats running. The MSM/results of polls energized the Trump fan base, while for Biden's base, they knew from 2016, it wasn't trust-worthy.
The base was never the question for Trump. We know he can get his base out and they don't trust the media, the polls, etc. They will crawl through a war zone to vote for him.
The problem is the malleable softer voters in the middle. Those that aren't part of Trump's hardcore base, but that can be swing voters depending on the year.
I can guarantee that many of those people were influenced by the polling peer pressure. "Wow, so many people think Trump is terrible. He's going to lose anyway. I guess I like many of his policies but there must be something bad about him if he's going to lose in a landslide and I'm a bad person if I vote for him."
I fail to see how the poll results, and MSM coverage, benefited the Democrats and Biden.
If anything, it hurt Biden and other Democrats running. The MSM/results of polls energized the Trump fan base to show up and vote to counter what the media was portraying, while for Biden's base, they knew from 2016, it wasn't trustworthy and nothing could be took for granted.
Finally! A rational and intelligent response! I only say that because I wrote the same thing on another thread.
The base was never the question for Trump. We know he can get his base out and they don't trust the media, the polls, etc. They will crawl through a war zone to vote for him.
The problem is the malleable softer voters in the middle. Those that aren't part of Trump's hardcore base, but that can be swing voters depending on the year.
I can guarantee that many of those people were influenced by the polling peer pressure. "Wow, so many people think Trump is terrible. He's going to lose anyway. I guess I like many of his policies but there must be something bad about him if he's going to lose in a landslide and I'm a bad person if I vote for him."
Lever pulled for Biden.
Trump benefited with some malleable softer voters as well. Look at the targeted ads (of socialism) that ran in the Miami tv market as an example.
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