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All three of those states have split party control (Democratic Governor, Republican legislature). None have veto-proof super majorities either. And this would also assume that rank and file Republicans would all vote to overturn the will of the people.
So let's imagine that somehow, these lawsuits succeeded and WI, MI and PA did not certify their vote. And then the only option left is to appoint Electors. But the state can't do that because the Governors would veto any attempt to overturn the election... what happens next?
This is where there IS a constitutional crisis. And it doesn't yet involve the House of Representative where Biden will not prevail.
The part of the Constitution that discusses the Electoral College says that the winner needs a majority of the Electors to be declared President. If WI, MI and PA don't send Electors, the winner doesn't need 270 Electors anymore. There wouldn't be 538 Electors. They would be 492. The winner then needs 247 Electors to win. Trump has 232. He'd still come up short and Biden would win.
However... this part of the Constitution was never really tested. The closest we came was the Election of 1876 when some states did not certify results to send Electors. However, to avoid a Constitutional crisis, they compromised. They gave the win to the Republican (Hayes) in exchange for what was essentially the end of Reconstruction (federal troops removed from readmitted Southern states).
The thing is, the part about do you need 270 Electors to win or just a majority of sent Electors might seem pretty clear if you read the Constitution, but you know that it will go up to the Supreme Court. A Supreme Court that has three Trump appointees and a 6-3 majority. If they re-interpret the Constitution to claim you need 270 Electors and not just the majority of Electors sent... then it would go the House.
We don't know the results of every House district yet, and this does matter. The incoming House would select the President based on state delegations. CA gets 1 vote. And WY gets 1 vote. Each state, just 1 vote, based on a majority of the delegation. You need 26 state delegations to win. Depending on how it fleshes out, if enough states have even delegations, Trump might only get to 25. In that case, the House cannot decide the winner.
Move over to the Senate, the Senate would select the VP. Again, there are multiple constitutional crises on the horizon there. First, from what I remember reading a month ago, Pence doesn't get a tiebreaking vote as President of the Senate. This vote is done without him. So, someone needs 51 votes. If Republicans win at least 1 GA seat, they'd elect Pence as the VP. The Constitution isn't all that clear about what happens next. I'm not a legal scholar, but what I read in there is that Pence would be Acting President until a President is either selected by the House or a special election is held in 2021 for the Office of President again. There is some language in there that is pretty specific about that scenario. The VP takes over for the President if he resigns or is otherwise incapacitated, but NOT if the office is vacant. The VP is Acting President until the position is filled.
Now, if the Democrats win both GA seats, we have no VP (likely 50-50 split). For fun, let's say one Republican broke ranks and selected Harris as the VP. Then there'd be a fight over whether she is a naturally born citizen or not. But, that won't happen. With a 50-50 split in the Senate, no VP and no President. If that happens, the Speaker of the House becomes either President (4 years) or Acting President (until special election) - again, the Constitution isn't all that clear.
Keep in mind, anything in the Constitution that is "not all that clear" is a tilt to Trump. The primary job of the Judiciary (SCOTUS) is to interpret the Constitution. So, in ANY of those scenarios laid out in that wall of text, Trump has an advantage.
Thank you for this good analysis. One part I disagree with is about the Governors vetoing the appointment of Electors. The Constitution gives states the authority to determine electors according to whatever the legislatures decide. It doesn't seem to grant the Governors any say in the process.
The part about the majority of electors is what I have identified as a potential Constitutional crisis. Because it is not clear whether one needs a majority of 538, or a majority of however many electoral votes were cast. That question could go to the Supreme Court. Believe it or not, I still have faith the SCOTUS would rule based on the intent of the framers and not on partisanship.
I doubt that Dems will win both GA senate seats; they will be lucky to get even one of them. So I don't see any prospect of a GOP President and Democrat Vice-president (by the way there is no question that Harris is a natural-born citizen).
Trumpers, if your end goal is to have Trump as the next president, it will never happen. So what exactly is the point of carrying on with these lawsuits?
At the least it's to make sure you don't try it again.
The election belongs to the American people. We have chosen President Donald J Trump by a landslide. The evidence present to the courts will prove it. Joey didn't win so there is nothing to steal. Propaganda does not work on informed people.
To amend the United States Information and Educational Exchange Act of 1948 to authorize the domestic dissemination of information and material about the United States intended primarily for foreign audiences, and for other purposes.
The invader in the WH barry signed this amendment to this bill into law.
RUN like he*l from the tv. Don't look back. You are being propagandized. You'll thank me for this advice in a few days when your head clears, your outlook becomes stabilized and you realize you are your own person.
The signed affidavits are from eyewitnesses. This is not an attempt to steal the election, it is an attempt to reverse the stealing of the election. And it’s not a Constitutional crisis for the Constitution to be followed.
Qanon eyewitnesses? There have to be enough of them, and they have to be credible. Ghoiliani getting someone to repeat his lies isn't sufficient. And so far, courts haven't given in.
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