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We're kind of at war. During wartime, people make sacrifices. A lot of people are broke but ideally people would still be careful.
The vaccine will be here in only a few months, or likely sooner for medical workers. While the "herd immunity" strategy might have been potentially reasonable a few months ago, that's no longer the case. A vaccine is superior to that route in every possible way. In addition to the obvious issue that it would reduce deaths, every time the coronavirus spreads it has a chance to mutate. A vaccine could destroy it in one's body before it has much of a chance to mutate.
The fewer chances it has to mutate, of course, the more easily it will be to be destroyed by a single vaccine, or, of course, even if it does take more than 1 vaccine to destroy most of it it, the less it mutates now the fewer viruses will be floating around potentially mutating to require another vaccine.
This could indeed be something that sticks around, in different mutated forms for many decades, but obviously, the less it spreads now, the fewer chances the newer mutations have to become something difficult to deal with.
And yeah...viruses will oftentimes grow weaker and less symptomatic on their own in order to spread more stealthily...but the coronavirus currently has a much higher death rate than the flu, and the number of cases is going up more quickly now, as people are getting tired of dealing with this stuff.
When looking at the number of cases that have resolved so far, not including the number of people currently with it, there's been about a 3% death rate. Seven-and-a-half million people have gotten it and either recovered or died. About 262,000 people have died. That's about a 3%.death rate. It's probably closer to 2% given the vast number of people with it who will survive.
The actually death rate will almost certainly be lower, I'm assuming. The total coronavirus cases, including people who currently have it, is apparently about twelve-and-a-half million, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
and also a large percentage of cases will be asymptomatic.
24 studies report that the proportion of asymptomatic individuals among individuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 ranged from:
20%–75% for the general population.
2%–50% for contacts of known cases.
45%–100% of obstetric patients presenting to hospitals.
42%–66.7% of nursing home residents; 0%–50% of nursing home staff.
50%–87.8% in congregate settings such as temporary homeless shelter.
2% of retail workers (single study). https://www.cdc.gov/library/covid19/...0known%20cases.
Even if the death rate is 1%, that's still 3.3 million people who could die without a vaccine. A million people could quite easily die from this. I figure maybe 400,000 people are just going to no matter what is done, but another 600,000 people could survive...with a vaccine.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), said a coronavirus vaccine may be available to high-risk Americans by the end of December or early January. https://www.biospace.com/article/fau...e-by-december/
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert who has guided the U.S. through the pandemic, projected Americans could expect their first doses of an approved coronavirus vaccine as early as April. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ke/3764262001/
I agree and it's why I sent my die hard Democrat family a letter begging them to stop virtue signally what to do and start doing the right thing. They constantly socialize without masks and with no distance, with people coming and going between homes in different states. They talk a good game, but never do what they preach. I fear the bigger holiday gatherings will do them in. I am refusing to partake. I have not seen anyone since March and won't until at least June 2021.
I agree with your point that a vaccine is superior - and that people should be very careful. After that though...
CDC estimates overall death rate at about 0.65% - there is no reason to not use that number.
If it's "kind of" accurate - it means (with 250K+ dead) - that about 10% of the country has already been infected. It's not very many.
Could 750K die? Of course. 3.3M? Highly unlikely. That's because the death rate is not uniformly sorted among the age groups - and the group 80+ is 10x the rate of, well, everybody else. Skipping the details, and accounting for ALL the "old" people in the USA, and assuming the CDC rate is accurate - about 1.2M would be the very max, right now.
Seems like we could hit that in 3 or 4 more years. By then, of course, we will have "made" some more "old" people, and 5% of them will die too, so the grand total would rise, always, rise and rise. That part, at least, will never change.
But without some kind of dramatic shift in the demographics - 1.2M (USA) is about the max. Eh, maybe 1.4 or 1.1 or something, but...close enough. 3.3M is too high.
How hard is to social distance? They can keep their multiple rushed vaccines that was rushed through development, rushed through FDA approval (an FDA that trump destroyed much of mind you). No idea what’s in any of them and zero studies of the long term damage they will cause and for a virus that was NEVER isolated. I’ll never take one.
The rest of the suckers are free to be hamsters however. Let me know how it turns out for you guys
How hard is to social distance? They can keep their multiple rushed vaccines that was rushed through development, rushed through FDA approval (an FDA that trump destroyed much of mind you). No idea what’s in any of them and zero studies of the long term damage they will cause and for a virus that was NEVER isolated. I’ll never take one.
The rest of the suckers are free to be hamsters however. Let me know how it turns out for you guys
Of course the virus has been isolated. What on earth makes you deny that?
How it turns out will be fewer infections and deaths among those who are vaccinated.
How hard is to social distance? They can keep their multiple rushed vaccines that was rushed through development, rushed through FDA approval (an FDA that trump destroyed much of mind you). No idea what’s in any of them and zero studies of the long term damage they will cause and for a virus that was NEVER isolated. I’ll never take one.
The rest of the suckers are free to be hamsters however. Let me know how it turns out for you guys
The CDC estimates that there's a 0.65 percent average chance of someone actually DYING from the virus and you're worried about the vaccine? Furthermore, if you're worried about non-mortality related side effects of the virus for the young, my sister's boyfriend won second place in a Jiu-Jitsu tournament. He's giant and ripped and an extroardinarily healthy 34 year old. He had a very minor case of it that hardly bothered him at all. He lost his sense of smelly, mostly, a few months ago and still hasn't gotten it back since...so we already know the virus itself has dangerous side-effects. If there is no vaccine, social-distancing can keep the hospitals from flooding, but it won't lead to any fewer people getting the virus.
And if that's not enough for you, the medical workers are probably going to be vaccinated before everybody else, so you may well have a few months after that happens to read up upon any un-anticipated side-effects.
Here's supposedly how it'll work:
The vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer utilize a new technology, known as mRNA, which introduces a genetic code the body can use to make its own viral protein to induce an immune response. AstraZeneca’s vaccine uses a nonreplicating chimpanzee adenovirus to deliver a SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to stimulate an immune response, and Johnson & Johnson’s one-dose vaccine is made from a genetically modified adenovirus. https://www.aarp.org/health/conditio...-research.html
I agree with your point that a vaccine is superior - and that people should be very careful. After that though...
CDC estimates overall death rate at about 0.65% - there is no reason to not use that number.
If it's "kind of" accurate - it means (with 250K+ dead) - that about 10% of the country has already been infected. It's not very many.
Could 750K die? Of course. 3.3M? Highly unlikely. That's because the death rate is not uniformly sorted among the age groups - and the group 80+ is 10x the rate of, well, everybody else. Skipping the details, and accounting for ALL the "old" people in the USA, and assuming the CDC rate is accurate - about 1.2M would be the very max, right now.
Seems like we could hit that in 3 or 4 more years. By then, of course, we will have "made" some more "old" people, and 5% of them will die too, so the grand total would rise, always, rise and rise. That part, at least, will never change.
But without some kind of dramatic shift in the demographics - 1.2M (USA) is about the max. Eh, maybe 1.4 or 1.1 or something, but...close enough. 3.3M is too high.
.65% of 330 million people (about the number of people in the U.S.) would be about 2 million. The thing is, without a vaccine people will very swiftly get tired of social distancing and such, and it'll begin to spread exponentially, which probably means flooded hospitals and an increased mortality rate.
There's a CDC model here show quite a few potential models...and some of them go, just short of strait up. The death rate and spread is going to largely depend on how people react to this before a vaccine comes out. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...2012%2C%202020.
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Now, after enough time herd immunity, even without a vaccine, would render enough people immune for the virus to no longer have enough hosts to spread(if it doesn't mutate). Nobody seems to know exactly what percentage of the population that would require. General numbers seem to be something over 50%. I see the number 70% casually tossed around too, here and there. I have no idea how accurate that is.
Given that Coronavirus has spread all over the world though...eventually it's probably going to hit everybody, I'd assume...so I'm not sure why the amount of people needed to get Coronavirus wouldn't need to be somewhere close to 100% for it to be driven completely out of society.
Therefore, 0.65% of 328 million people would be 2,132,000 deaths (without that number being reduced because I don't know why 100% of the population wouldn't end up getting it eventually with no vaccine, even if it takes a few years) and I added on another half or so to account for it possibly sweeping through society a second time before before it mutates into something fairly harmless (as diseases often do) and to account for hospital-flooding.
Admittedly, that's not rooted in any studies I could find so much as worst-case scenario guesswork.
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Furthermore, remember, my statement about the 3.3 million or so involved if no vaccine was taken by people. If that's the case, we're going to rely on herd immunity, which means giving the virus many more chances to mutate, and spread around the world and come back again after people's resistance has worn off...meaning the casualty rate could potentially, (depending largely on how fast it mutates) go through society again in a second wave.
Between flooding hospitals if people get tired of dealing with this, and increased mutation chances, and it being in our society longer from lack of a vaccine...I don't see 3.3 million deaths as particularly unreasonable if there were no vaccine...although it's hard to say how the virus would behave. These would be long term prospects that we'd just kind of have to guess about.
Also...I know people with heart conditions that are totally avoiding contact with anyone now. They're not going to keep that up forever. Movie theaters are closed down. That's not going to last forever. Same thing with people avoiding vacations/schools advocating social distancing, etc. I would guess that over time the percentage of people who are most at-risk who get covid would go up, rather than down.
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With a vaccine in sight, the outcome is going to appear a lot closer to relating to what we've seen so far, I'd think. You can convince people to social distance if you can tell them there will be an end to it in the future that's more or less within sight.
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I am looking at the worst-case scenario, but my emphasis is on encouraging people to take the vaccine because without that I don't see any options besides a worst-case scenario. Every single optimistic outcome I can think of depends on lots of people taking the vaccine.
I agree and it's why I sent my die hard Democrat family a letter begging them to stop virtue signally what to do and start doing the right thing. They constantly socialize without masks and with no distance, with people coming and going between homes in different states. They talk a good game, but never do what they preach. I fear the bigger holiday gatherings will do them in. I am refusing to partake. I have not seen anyone since March and won't until at least June 2021.
I've seen people...just in low numbers, and my job and lifestyle involves seeing very few people. I live in a fairly isolated spot too. Thanksgiving, we'll have about seven people together. Christmas will probably involve five. I have gone on a fishing day with a couple other people, and seen a few people in small numbers for amusement. The only thing I've done that I've felt kind of guilty about was going to eat at Texas Roadhouse with some relatives, which, while they did have glass between the seats and the servers were wearing masks, and you were supposed to have a mask to initially get inside...once inside that place was a nightmare. It was crowded. Nobody was wearing masks. I was eating my food right beside the walkways that lots of mask-less people were walking by. I didn't know it would be that bad though.
Nobody I know got it then though. When it did spread through people I know was a few months ago when, after a very long time of relative isolation, I had a brief dinner with a few relatives...I think it was 10 people...and three people got it.
So, you're walking the walk and I'm talking the talk more than you are. I'm still being cautious though. Frequent hand-washing after meeting people and such, especially after touching new money.
I know a very conservative couple, one of whom has a heart condition, who are hardly even going outside...so yeah, social distancing and hand-washing and masks is not just just a democrat/liberal thing.
If you are old (76.9 years old on average) and if you are sick (2.6 comorbidities on average), then you need to protect yourself.
If you are younger and 100% healthy and you don’t come in contact with older, sicker people, just live your life.
I’ve been living my life since March, I no longer care about this nonsense. But I always wear a mask, no reason to cause a scene no matter how dumb it all is.
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