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you speak as if you believe the fed has any control over long term rates. hint: they don't.
there will be a hyperinflationary event in the US in my lifetime.
I love when people speak with absolute certainty about things that have not happened.
The Fed has all the control they need over interest rates. Paul Volcker proved this. Raising rates temporarily kills the economy, but it halts inflation.
But we are living in a dystopian present right now
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cape Cod Todd
What happens to a household that is divided and bankrupt? The defaulted occupants will find themselves escorted out onto the street.
The Feds have been running us into the ground for years and they just keep spending while more and more people are taking more and paying less. What else can be expected but a collapse of everything?
There will of course be the Haves that carry on their posh lives but for most of us we will be living in one of those dystopian sci fi movies
Oh well what can we do?
Over the holidays, I have been relegated to watching old sci-fi movies from the 60's and 70's. Low budget second features. City scenes usually shot at night on the cheap, in the movies, showing dirty city dwellers living on the street among their hovels, you know, what Los Angeles looks like today. I watched an Internet podcast shot by a senior in his golden age demonstrating how to fry up 3 chicken and pork hotdogs (79 cents @ pack of eight), 1/3 of an Idaho spud, and part of an onion in a skillet for his dinner.
No worries. We will all be dead from climate change or disease before then anyways.
You know, it looked just as bleak for Germany after WWI and they found a way to recover and even come close to taking over the world. The future is not written and highly unpredictable.
WWII Germany wasn’t full of overweight, lazy, low functioning people addicted to social media.
I watched an Internet podcast shot by a senior in his golden age demonstrating how to fry up 3 chicken and pork hotdogs (79 cents @ pack of eight), 1/3 of an Idaho spud, and part of an onion in a skillet for his dinner.
Wake up!
Thats a improvement. Growing up my mom was poor as heck, we just did hot dogs chopped, and potatoes chopped all grilled up. Thats vastly better then my childhood. We didnt add onions.
You're literally describing a normal diet for those who have very little in one of the richest countrys in the world.
Gold I have a the least of...I have the most silver followed by palladium, platinum, and rhodium, with gold last. Doing pretty well with the PGMs already.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blahblahyoutoo
metals are better than fiat, but will anyone trade you food for it?
food, water, shelter and the ability the defend those 3 come first, whether that is a cache of arms or a community that bands together. I prefer the latter.
If it comes to this I'll just off myself, or take what I want using my weapons, or form a militia using my weapons to get me in... I'm holed up in a top floor apartment with one means of entry which helps. It's the houses people will be going after in such a situation. I don't think society will completely collapse. More likely major inflation as the piggies pump and pump some more under the guise of stimulating monetary velocity and "growth" and trying to bale out and save everyone from everything, make sure we never have a recession again, and basically trying to play God using neverending stimulus and negative rates. The federal reserve will become the bond market, and support the stock and real estate markets.
There will be no need for taxes.... Inflation will be the tax, and everyone will pay. The trick is finding investments that outperform the inflation, and of course paying capital gains tax when you sell which adds insult to injury.
Gold I have a the least of...I have the most silver followed by palladium, platinum, and rhodium, with gold last. Doing pretty well with the PGMs already.
Of all the ones you listed, the only one I might view as a concern is cryptocurrency. The rest are more about local forces, and economics. While there arent zero other choices thats nothing new. Its just that the other choices suck.
If we get removed as the preferred choice, THATS when our currency will be more vulnerable to inflation, and that doesnt mean hyper inflation. So again, I dont think a hyper inflation concern is very likely. But I ALSO dont think its impossible-just unlikely.
But the national debt here is taking more and more of our money to maintain. In some ways its a lot like a credit card, the more you owe, the less you can do as the interest payments hurt. When its a internal loan like with social security funds, thats not as bad as it sounds as that interest is paying for something useful-aka social security. But when its going to just make folks wealthy-especially overseas investors, thats when its a bad thing. So we have both good, and bad debt to sort through. And even too much "good" debt-ie it serves a us purpose, can be bad if it overburdens the country.
I don't see it as an IF scenario, speaking about us losing WRC status.
I see it as a chain of events scenario where we print the USD to oblivion (as we currently are), and inflation takes hold as us unproductive members of society, i.e. the unemployed, chase more staple goods.
typical buyers of our treasuries see the writing on the wall, stop purchasing, which leads to higher interest rates, which leads to the fed purchasing more debt, which leads to more inflation - i.e. a death spiral.
I don't see it as an IF scenario, speaking about us losing WRC status.
I see it as a chain of events scenario where we print the USD to oblivion (as we currently are), and inflation takes hold as us unproductive members of society, i.e. the unemployed, chase more staple goods.
typical buyers of our treasuries see the writing on the wall, stop purchasing, which leads to higher interest rates, which leads to the fed purchasing more debt, which leads to more inflation - i.e. the death spiral.
Which Ive heard the same old arguments about it for 30 years. I just dont find it convincing to be honest. We would have to get vastly more into debt, and keep increasing our inequality. Inflation makes debts go away. Which is a natural brake on a lot of things.
And the reality is the united state is more productive now then anytime in the recent past, trying to blame thing on people being lazy and unproductive doesn't fly. Covid may slow us some, but it wont change reality-we are VASTLY more productive. The issue is that most of the benefits for the last 50 years now have accrued at the top. But our overall productivity isnt at risk in any real way.
Don't buy that now....the time to buy was when it was $1000-1500. It's a platinum group metal found in catalytic converters in small amounts...it's one of the most scarce elements with commercial application on the planet. A small fraction is mined compared to platinum and palladium. Now if crypto tards wanted to invest in something of actual scarcity, they could corner the market in these three metals pretty easily. Too bad they chase digital money that uses lots of electricity (I also own bitcoin)
It's currently around $25,000 per ounce, a record high. It could hit $50,000 to $100,000 but it's risky at these prices....as is bitcoin. Flip a coin. There aren't many cheap investments left...even the secondary investments have been pumped up. Maybe silver and platinum are ok deals here...and cherry picking certain stocks. I'm skeptical heart's deflationary collapse will happen but that probably means it will.
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But we are living in a dystopian present right now
