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After the events of this week, there is a precisely 0% chance Manchin will be switching to R. The R party needs help before it goes into a death spiral, they are extremely unattractive to the moderate majority right now.
The "moderate majority" doesn't support socialist medicine (many were indeed victimized by Obamacare), government run health, economically devastating overregulation against steel, oil, gas, coal, etc), unfair trade agreements designed to place other countries in a dominant position over us and to redistribute American jobs and wealth abroad. Most of also don't support gun control or want open borders with unrestricted immigration, or to reward illegal aliens for their crimes. The "moderate majority" at least wants American citizens and America's national interests to come before foreign ones.
It seems to me that if the conservative party is imploding, and I was a well-known moderately conservative Senator with a reputation for being independent, being independent would be sitting in the cat bird's seat for the next 4 years ahead.
Lots and lots of options for an independent if the guy has higher aspirations.l If not, then he's just fine as he is; his voters thought so.
Manchin is a potential swing vote but he is not the only one. Both of Arizona's senators are dem but are not going to be backing any "socialist" ideas. Kinda like Collins and Murkowski are not social conservatives. Maybe I am getting too hopeful but I think there is going to be more bipartisan cooperation in the Senate than we have seen in many years. The pols got a hard lesson in where this division is leading us with the failures of covid and the insurrection.
-voted for Obamacare multiple times
-voted against the 2017 Trump Tax cuts
-voted against Trump's border wall construction
-voted to convict and remove Trump from office
-etc
So while it's true he's a conservative D, he's clearly well to the left of the Trumpian space Mitch has been operating in, and any idea he would join Mitch is really absurd.
Exactly. When push comes to shove - he will go along to get along.
We know how vile Democrats are to those who won’t submit to the leftist narrative, and Manchin will be up against the worst of them if he doesn’t vote to pack the Court, pack the Senate, fund the Green New Wasteful Deal, give more special privileges to blacks, and so forth. I see two possibilities:
1) Manchin, already coming from a conservative state and whose policies do not align with the radical left progressives who have hijacked the party, will be under fire for not submitting and will thus switch his party affiliation to R, or.....
2) There will be enough reasonable Democrats opposed to radical leftism and will form a sub-group within the Senate to block the crazy anti-American hatefest and Manchin will remain a D.
Heck there are questions on whether Biden himself or Pelosi herself supports those things. I think you vastly overestimate the amount of power the progressive wing has on financial issues. If I was a betting man I would be willing to personally bet you over $9,000 that 49 out of 50 Democrats will not agree on the Green Deal or to Pack the Court between now and 2022 or even now and 2024.
Exactly. When push comes to shove - he will go along to get along.
He won't vote for a green new deal, he has appropriately said we don't need to send out another $2k check. He won't vote to pack the supreme court, he won't vote to end the filibuster. All things the left wants. The Bernie/AOC agenda is dead thank goodness.
We know how vile Democrats are to those who won’t submit to the leftist narrative, and Manchin will be up against the worst of them if he doesn’t vote to pack the Court, pack the Senate, fund the Green New Wasteful Deal, give more special privileges to blacks, and so forth. I see two possibilities:
1) Manchin, already coming from a conservative state and whose policies do not align with the radical left progressives who have hijacked the party, will be under fire for not submitting and will thus switch his party affiliation to R, or.....
2) There will be enough reasonable Democrats opposed to radical leftism and will form a sub-group within the Senate to block the crazy anti-American hatefest and Manchin will remain a D.
Democrats don't storm the Capitol during an attempt to overthrow our government. I don't think anyone, aside from the Trump base, who really want that "Republican" stigma attached to them right now. So no, he won't be turning R anytime soon.
After the events of this week, there is a precisely 0% chance Manchin will be switching to R. The R party needs help before it goes into a death spiral, they are extremely unattractive to the moderate majority right now.
Good point. What is "R" going to stand for now? They appear to be anything but moderate. The historical positions of conservatism have been replaced by an embrace of totalitarianism and unconscionable political expediency. Manchin has far more leeway to pursue and assert his positions in the Democratic party than in the Trump party of today.
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