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I see where you're coming from. But, again, Dems didn't win in GA due to the strength of the black vote, alone, but rather also due to a better showing among white voters than they get elsewhere in the deep south.
Trump won 73% of the white vote in South Carolina--lower than in MS but higher than in Georgia--but black voters are also a smaller percentage of the electorate in South Carolina vs Georgia.
All that is true. I'm not denying that. I'm also not denying that GA was closer to tipping over for Dems than any other Bible belt state.
But by putting a state in play, you also target groups you ignored in the past, including White voters. The combination of siphoning off some White voters and mobilizing a lot of Black voters is what would flip those states. It's not a guarantee that it'll work, but it is a viable strategy now.
Sounds like you welcome a one party system and communism. America is lost...
Not the Ds fault that the GOP doesn't even try to get minority voters any more. they gave up and are now focussed on deterring them from voting. Even a dolt could figure out what's wrong with that strategy.
Employment figures are generally going to be set at a baseline number for all. It's moving them beyond that baseline number/percentage that is noteworthy.
You still can't give Trump credit for the 91% of eligible Black workers who were already employed when Trump took office. If someone wants to use u/e #s, then he gets credit for the delta, not total.
I love the optimism and what Abrams has done to mobilize the voters in GA, but I wouldn't get to far ahead of yourself. It took a record turnout from the dems, a pandemic, and a president fighting his own party for the Dems to sneak by. In more normal times it's hard to see the dems winning both seats.
Maybe. But don't forget that California was once a pretty Republican state. Pete Wilson, an R governor, was the beginning of the end for that - because he tried to quash the Hispanic vote.
What's been normal for years is not necessarily what will be normal five years from now.
All that is true. I'm not denying that. I'm also not denying that GA was closer to tipping over for Dems than any other Bible belt state.
But by putting a state in play, you also target groups you ignored in the past, including White voters. The combination of siphoning off some White voters and mobilizing a lot of Black voters is what would flip those states. It's not a guarantee that it'll work, but it is a viable strategy now.
I just caution that appealing to white voters isn't what helped Dems with white voters in Georgia. A "new" kind of white voter (for the state anyway)--the liberal transplant to Atlanta--just increased their numbers in the state, but they were always going to vote Democrat. I have yet to see evidence that conservative whites somehow flipped over in higher numbers to vote for Democrats in Georgia. Also, keep in mind that these campaigns--especially Warnock's who followed Stacey Abram's lead--didn't really target white voters anyway, but worked on increasing a growing black electorate. Together with white transplants who were naturally going to vote Democrat anyway and who generally vote in higher numbers than black voters, they were able to narrow things and win.
Simply put, it would be weird that conservative white voters were flipping in one part of the Deep South but not in other parts
I just caution that appealing to white voters isn't what helped Dems with white voters in Georgia. A "new" kind of white voter (for the state anyway)--the liberal transplant to Atlanta--just increased their numbers in the state, but they were always going to vote Democrat. I have yet to see evidence that conservative whites somehow flipped over in higher numbers to vote for Democrats in Georgia. Also, keep in mind that these campaigns--especially Warnock's who followed Stacey Abram's lead--didn't really target white voters anyway, but worked on increasing a growing black electorate. Together with white transplants who were naturally going to vote Democrat anyway and who generally vote in higher numbers than black voters, they were able to narrow things and win.
Simply put, it would be weird that conservative white voters were flipping in one part of the Deep South but not in other parts
But by all accounts, it wasn't conservatives who flipped. It's moderate suburban whites. Who would probably still vote for a moderate R if they are presented with one. But if Trump supporters succeed in their efforts to primary "treasonous" Rs - they won't get that opportunity for a while. And by then, they may not be all that interested in the GOP anymore.
I just caution that appealing to white voters isn't what helped Dems with white voters in Georgia. A "new" kind of white voter (for the state anyway)--the liberal transplant to Atlanta--just increased their numbers in the state, but they were always going to vote Democrat. I have yet to see evidence that conservative whites somehow flipped over in higher numbers to vote for Democrats in Georgia. Also, keep in mind that these campaigns--especially Warnock's who followed Stacey Abram's lead--didn't really target white voters anyway, but worked on increasing a growing black electorate. Together with white transplants who were naturally going to vote Democrat anyway and who generally vote in higher numbers than black voters, they were able to narrow things and win.
Simply put, it would be weird that conservative white voters were flipping in one part of the Deep South but not in other parts
We don't need to target the Gohmert style Republican to siphon White votes. Moderate Republicans who thought we didn't need the Trump tax cuts, who don't think "globalism" is a sin, who don't want Obamacare repealed are ripe for the picking.
That's not even including the traditional blue collar worker who wants OT pay and min wage increase.
If the GOP runs out of touch, pro-rich elitist like they did in GA, there's a lot Republicans who can be picked off.
But by all accounts, it wasn't conservatives who flipped. It's moderate suburban whites. Who would probably still vote for a moderate R if they are presented with one. But if Trump supporters succeed in their efforts to primary "treasonous" Rs - they won't get that opportunity for a while. And by then, they may not be all that interested in the GOP anymore.
See, I hear talking points to that effect, but haven't seen hard evidence to support it. Perdue is still a moderate Republican, as is Loeffler, especially as far as Georgia goes.
But we don't even see moderate suburban whites flipping in these other states, which again begs the question for me of--if this theory is accurate--why is the same thing not happening in other parts of the Deep South? Are moderate, suburban whites so different in Georgia than they are in Louisiana, South Carolina, and Mississippi? Republicans did not struggle in the suburbs everywhere.
Note, there is also the point that Georgia--since the Republicans started to take control at the state level for the first time since Reconstruction in the early 2000s (the way you hear some talk about things, you'd think that Georgia has been a GOP stronghold for many, many decades), statewide elections in Georgia with a few exceptions have generally been fairly close. Note, Georgia elected it's first GOP governor in over 130 years in only in 2002. And while former Senator Johnny Ikason had decently comfortable victories, the same cannot generally be said for other Republicans running for statewide election in Georgia.
Hell, even John McCain only won 52% of the presidential election vote in Georgia, while Romney won 53% of the vote. Again, Republicans have generally not been winning blowout elections in Georgia, especially once the share of the black vote has increased overtime.
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