I know one thing after witnessing this spectacle, the US can't win a war against China.
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I used to think the US had tremendous military strength, bases everywhere across the world, incredible technology and general competence. I figured it would easily defeat the Chinese whose government relies on oppression, censorship, coercion, and technology theft.
But seeing how our government at all levels has (mis)handled the coronavirus pandemic, the BLM protests, the general divisions at all levels of our society, and now today's spectacle, I honestly don't think we can win a war against China if it were to happen this year much less 10 years from now. At least not a conventional one.
China has 4 times our population and massive industrial capacity (the first point makes it unique from all our previous wars). Their population has incredible unity compared to our state of disunion. All the prognostications of China's eminent collapse haven't panned out for 2 decades now. They are as strong and as rich as ever. Covid has against all odds made them even stronger. They passed their stress test. We have failed ours.
This was my most poignant epiphany while watching the protestors today in Capitol Hill.
China keeps its citizens in line because China is a communist country and a dictatorship. Unless that is what you want here. Now we are to admire China's violence on its citizens?
I used to think the US had tremendous military strength, bases everywhere across the world, incredible technology and general competence. I figured it would easily defeat the Chinese whose government relies on oppression, censorship, coercion, and technology theft.
But seeing how our government at all levels has (mis)handled the coronavirus pandemic, the BLM protests, the general divisions at all levels of our society, and now today's spectacle, I honestly don't think we can win a war against China if it were to happen this year much less 10 years from now. At least not a conventional one.
China has 4 times our population and massive industrial capacity (the first point makes it unique from all our previous wars). Their population has incredible unity compared to our state of disunion. All the prognostications of China's eminent collapse haven't panned out for 2 decades now. They are as strong and as rich as ever. Covid has against all odds made them even stronger. They passed their stress test. We have failed ours.
This was my most poignant epiphany while watching the protestors today in Capitol Hill.
Wait, you don't think we can beat them with our "service based" industry ?!
China doesn't have to strike us.. They simply wait until we're most vulnerable... Like a year requiring $5.5T in incremental treasuries being issued to support deficit spending. They wait until we really need it then they dump all their US treasury holdings and dollar denominated assets at the same time.
The US will be forced to print money to satisfy it's deficit spending and not defaulting on debt. The debt gets downgraded thus interest rates go up and we see significant market crashes / stagflation. Based upon our total national debt and the infestation of credit in almost all markets you will see the entire economy grind to a halt and be purely cash basis.
This all will happen at our own hands and not a single bomb needs be dropped nor bullet needs be fired.
Most likely sea and air, and, island territories. The Chinese will move to take over the islands of Hawaii by force and move towards Northern California and Washinton state next. The latter being the shipping lanes they will need to control commerce and supplys.
Logistically improbably. Near impossible without nukes....
There would be no war with China because it would be in neither nation's best interests. For one thing, that kind of a war could become nuclear. No one wants to see that anywhere in the world. That's a big reason the USA and the USSR never engaged in a hot war.
China and it's people certainly wouldn't want that type of war. So many families only have one child, and they would not want to risk losing their one and only child for little/no gain. China's prosperity over the past few decades has also been largely a result of their trade with the USA. Why would they want to destroy their largest trading partner? Most people in China would rather see smoother ties with the USA, not a war.
As for the USA, too much manufacturing has been bled out of the country. The logistics of fighting a conventional war with a large nation with a much larger population would be challenging, to say the least. I don't think such a war would be supported by the people of this nation either. Most people don't hate China, though some hate their system of government, communism, etc. But China is a country on the other side of the globe. It's not our problem, and shouldn't be our concern. USA is far better served worrying about and fixing our problems over here.
I certainly wouldn't say the USA couldn't win though. But what would have to be done to win such a war would be ugly and undesirable for the world, including the USA and it's population.
We had no problem winning. It's the occupation and long term costs of these wars that's the problem.
We never won a thing. Broke two countries and not one drop of oil and had to pay to and try fix them.
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