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The graphs from all previous flu seasons. Compare them visually to the graphs from most states for corona.
Provide links, please. I provided one comparing flu seasons by year.
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Sure they can, but do you really think they're testing for both? Someone calls up their doctor and gives their symptoms, do you really think they order a test for both? NO! Most likely they call up the local health department, say "we got another corona case" and call it done. If someone goes and gets tested for corona do you think they also get tested for flu? NO! The problem is the PCR tests are WAY over sensitive and they're testing for a virus that's basically endemic to the world so OF COURSE they're going to find cases of it and not flu!
Yes, they test for both, because the treatments are different. It is even possible to look for both with one test.
The significance of high sensitivity is mainly relevant to asymptomatic people who are tested as contacts or screening (say for employers that require it). They may have very low amounts of virus present, will not get sick, and may not be able to transmit the virus.
Someone who has a positive test and symptoms and physical findings and lab results consistent with COVID-19 has COVID-19.
Also, it is possible to be coinfected with both viruses.
Doctors are not as stupid as you think they are.
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Yea, because they're all being counted as corona!
Nope. Laboratory diagnosed influenza.
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Prove that it was that specific virus that made their organs fail.
The virus has been found in those organs at autopsy.
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Do you understand that to a mask there is no difference between the two viruses? They're both in the same size range, a mask that's as good at trapping influenza is just as good at trapping corona.
It has to do with the differences in transmission dynamics. Influenza is less infectious and does not have the asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic characteristics that the coronavirus does. It's not just masks, it is masks + social distancing + hand hygiene.
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The viruses do not care about politics. The number of new coronavirus (not flu, my mistake) case diagnoses has been fluctuating all along, primarily driven by human behavior.
Then explain why it's being found in so many asymptomatic people?
It is found in asymptomatic people because that is the way the infection is. Why it acts that way is not yet understood.
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Which is part of its problem, the current method they're using for the PCR tests amplifies the genetic material WAY too much! I've taken to calling it the La Croix of tests since it can detect a hint of a hint of tiny piece of a virus.
The question of sensitivity is not a problem if the person being tested has symptoms. The question is whether it picks up tiny amounts of virus in asymptomatic people that will not cause illness in the person tested and virus that is not infectious.
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But how do we know that? At no other time in history have we EVER engaged in such a systematic mass-testing regime open to everyone. Even during previous flu seasons, I don't know of anyone that went to the doctor with "flu-like symptoms" and got tested. But now any Tom, Dick or Jane can roll up to a parking lot full of orange cones and get tested. I wish that just one governor somewhere would have ordered that all corona testing sites also had to test for influenza and whatever else can be tested for, with no option to only get a test for one.
If people are not sick it is not possible to test for every possible cause of respiratory illness. The cost would be astronomical. Doctors do test for flu. There are rapid tests that can be done in the office. It takes clinical judgement to know what to test for.
As a data analyst in healthcare, this comparison really bothers me. Not only is there no mass testing for anything else, but the testing is skewed, that's why I roll my eyes every time the news starts kvetching about the "positivity rate." Given the people being tested are going to be symptomatic people, or people in jobs that are around a lot of people, OF COURSE YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A HIGH POSITIVITY RATE! If the testing was truly random, that would be one thing, but it's not, it's already heavily biased toward people likely to be infected, by anything!
The mass testing is because of the severe morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 and an attempt to map the extent of spread of the disease, which is important in the attempt to control the pandemic.
Yes, the testing is biased toward those of higher risk. If you are going fishing you choose a pond that you know may have fish in it.
We already know the transmission dynamics for influenza because it has been studied in the past, even going so far as to deliberately infect people with it.
Since 60 million folks were infected w/Swine flu in about a year I’m guessing this virus (which also spreads via respiratory droplets but seems even more transmissible) is MUCH over 60 million at this point.
And yes, our wild and unprecedented asymptomatic testing (California alone has run 43 million tests) has yielded all sorts of statistics.(One wonders what our swine flu number would have been with a similar testing rate).
This is the most scrutinized virus in history with microscopic daily coverage scoreboard style. But yes if any disease, virus, germ got this kind of coverage the world would've shut down decades ago.
And with all those tests and data to analyze why is a state like California withholding data. What is being covered up, are they protecting a particular demographic, test and treatment quality, counter measure effectness what are they covering up.
We are NEVER going back to the 2019 normal. Likewise we never went back to the 1938 "normal". Never went back to the 1928 "normal". Never went back to the 1917 "normal". Never went back to the 1663 "normal". Never went back to the 1516 "normal". Never went back to the 1347 "normal". Major events change how things happen.
My "normal" is 1998. But the TSA isn't going away any time soon. We aren't getting our rights back from the Patriot act.
For those not versed in history: 1938, pre WW2. 1928, pre depression. 1917, pre spanish flu. 1663, pre Great Plague of London. 1516, Luther's 95 theses. 1347, pre Black Death.
TSA affects a person maybe once or twice a year
Making masks and social distancing permanent will go against the way humans naturally behave in everyday life
Good luck with that. Everyone, everywhere is waiting patiently for life to go back to normal. If somebody wants to tell Americans that's never going to happen, the revolt against that authoritarian regime will be massive, violent and absolutely unstoppable.
It's all about how you frame things. It seems like some folks just WANT to be angry.
Of course things will never, in 2021, go back to how they were before 2020. That is true even without COVID ever happening.
My belief is that as the vaccine gains wider distribution, more things will open back up. More big events will be possible, and more things will trend back to some form of normal.
But my best guess (not for or against, just what I think will happen) is that something as big as COVID will change our culture forever.
- Masks may or may not be required, but will always be seen differently than before
- People will be more aware of the spread of viruses. They can't unlearn what they already know.
- Big events may have new requirements. Like it or not, it will probably happen
- Things like Int'l travel will never be the same.
These are just what I think. So yeah, with the vaccine, we can return to a "new normal", and things can stabilize, and we can get back to doing most of the things we used to do. But will it ever return to the Normal we had in 2019? I don't think so. It's just another headline to attract readers and clicks.
FWIW, I had tickets to see the Rolling Stones last July. As someone in my 50's, I was never really interested in seeing them in a stadium, but finally decided to check that off my list. The concert was not cancelled, it was postponed (Ticketmaster 'code-talk' for not giving a refund yet.) Who knows what it might look like, but I am so hopeful they find a way to have this concert in 2021. Seeing the Stones will be great, but even more, just the ability to gather in a crowd of 70k+ will be a return to some kind of normal. I don't expect it to be exactly like it would have pre-COVID.
Oh dear. so many negative Nellies here. All about me and that awful wear a mask mandate. I'm crying for you right now. Not!
Look. This bug is serious, we all know that. We all know that we are in this mess because of Trump's botched Ciovid response that ultimately cost him the presidency.
This is not going away over night, it's out of control. We all could stop this in weeks if we did the right thing and invested in N95 masks. Why don't we?
You want to cry about this nightmare, yet not do anything about it? That makes you a Covidiot.
I enjoy the fact that my husband and I have not even had a cold in over a year now. I feel plenty safe wearing that N95 and a surgical mask over that in public. I'm quite used to wearing them now. It's like second nature.
I found N95's in California. If you want my source PM me and I will share it with you. Go get them!
It will take months to develop herd immunity with vaccines. The world needs to be vaccinated. That is not an easy task nor something that will happen in months.
Until we have this bug under control we have to do the right thing. It's that simple, yet convince the morons. That's way harder than wearing a mask.
We are NEVER going back to the 2019 normal. Likewise we never went back to the 1938 "normal". Never went back to the 1928 "normal". Never went back to the 1917 "normal". Never went back to the 1663 "normal". Never went back to the 1516 "normal". Never went back to the 1347 "normal". Major events change how things happen.
My "normal" is 1998. But the TSA isn't going away any time soon. We aren't getting our rights back from the Patriot act.
Like someone else mentioned upthread, the average American is slightly inconvenienced 3-4 times a year due to the PATRIOT Act.
The fundamentals on how the average American interacts with other human beings every single day, especially in-person, has been fundamentally changed due to the COVID restrictions.
I plan on along with millions of others to never take off my mask in crowded public areas, as it could also help prevent the flu and the cold. I also think we should keep some social distancing. We aren't going back to normal, it is going to be a new normal, those are two very different things.
It's all about how you frame things. It seems like some folks just WANT to be angry.
Of course things will never, in 2021, go back to how they were before 2020. That is true even without COVID ever happening.
My belief is that as the vaccine gains wider distribution, more things will open back up. More big events will be possible, and more things will trend back to some form of normal.
But my best guess (not for or against, just what I think will happen) is that something as big as COVID will change our culture forever.
- Masks may or may not be required, but will always be seen differently than before
- People will be more aware of the spread of viruses. They can't unlearn what they already know.
- Big events may have new requirements. Like it or not, it will probably happen
- Things like Int'l travel will never be the same.
These are just what I think. So yeah, with the vaccine, we can return to a "new normal", and things can stabilize, and we can get back to doing most of the things we used to do. But will it ever return to the Normal we had in 2019? I don't think so. It's just another headline to attract readers and clicks.
FWIW, I had tickets to see the Rolling Stones last July. As someone in my 50's, I was never really interested in seeing them in a stadium, but finally decided to check that off my list. The concert was not cancelled, it was postponed (Ticketmaster 'code-talk' for not giving a refund yet.) Who knows what it might look like, but I am so hopeful they find a way to have this concert in 2021. Seeing the Stones will be great, but even more, just the ability to gather in a crowd of 70k+ will be a return to some kind of normal. I don't expect it to be exactly like it would have pre-COVID.
Oh yes I’m shocked that people are angry when their entire lives have been disrupted, that millions lost their jobs, that loads of businesses have closed, That there kids can’t go back to school, that young adults all have to go to zoom university, that most leisure activities are not available, that gyms and other sporting activities are closed or restricted so much that it almost makes no sense to go, that their stress and mental health is taking a toll. That the goal posts keep moving and now you have some people saying things will Never go back to normal. I’m shocked
I plan on along with millions of others to never take off my mask in crowded public areas, as it could also help prevent the flu and the cold. I also think we should keep some social distancing. We aren't going back to normal, it is going to be a new normal, those are two very different things.
and that’s awesome. I fully support your right to do that if you so choose.
I plan on along with millions of others to never take off my mask in crowded public areas, as it could also help prevent the flu and the cold. I also think we should keep some social distancing. We aren't going back to normal, it is going to be a new normal, those are two very different things.
That phrase needs to be shelved. And no way will I continue to wear a mask if I don’t need to. Nor will I avoid crowds. You want to abolish festivals, markets, concerts forever? Give me a break. You don’t like crowds, then don’t go.
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