New Study: When will life return to normal? In 7 years at today's vaccine rates (state, federal)
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Its been less than 2 months and 8% of the US is vaccinated. At that rate, 80% in 20 months = heard immunity. Vaccinations are ramping up, new ones coming on line, its accelerating. Your math don't add up.
My state has distributed over 80% of the vaccine on hand but supply is starting to run low and demand is high. We have vaccinated about 15% of the population with at least one shot and what is remaining in the supply is largely spoken for as scheduled 2nd shots or high risk/priority people. We need more vaccine -- fast.
I don't believe 7 years but I didn't believe as many as 80,000 would die either when they first made predictions last spring. We are almost at 500k now and 2.3 million worldwide. We need to get people vaccinated at lightning speed to beat the mutations that are developing. If we don't, 7 years might be more likely.
You might recall (I'm old enough) that there were certain countries where you had to get shots or precautionary medication to go visit. Over time that mostly went away. I can imagine those types of precautions coming back as "normal" as they once were. Look at the precautions we live with for HIV and AIDS and consider it "normal" now.
The "experts" have said that at some point in the future the virus will mutate and lose it's lethal and debilitating qualities and become something like a bad cold.
Perhaps we will get lucky and the virus will burn itself out. But at the current rates of vaccination in the USA, it will take until the end of the year to reach herd immunity in vaccinations. Much of the rest of the world will take years.
Unfortunately, I think we are fooling ourselves if we think this is going to be over time soon. COVID-19 and it's fallout will define the rest of this decade.
Everyone in March 2020 was talking about how we'd only have to shut down society and stop living for a few weeks. Reality is more like a few YEARS.
Perhaps we will get lucky and the virus will burn itself out. But at the current rates of vaccination in the USA, it will take until the end of the year to reach herd immunity in vaccinations. Much of the rest of the world will take years.
Many of you seem to think the goal is total eradication. Even the author of the article.
The goal is to reduce its rate of transmission to a level where no local health system is at risk of being overwhelmed. That's it.
Since not everyone will get vaccinated - it's just silly to guess your timetable on vaccines alone. For one thing, children aren't eligible for the vaccine - so you can be certain The 'Rona will continue to circulate at some level, forever and ever and ever, unless something ELSE changes (new vaccine, mutation, whatever).
The "herd" is just a math model - where we hope it's more likely a contagious person will get better than that they find someone who hasn't had it yet and hasn't had a vaccine. There's no real "immunity." It's a poor choice of words, in some ways.
Meantime - many, many folks have had COVID and do not know it. While many of them will get a vaccine anyway (because they never knew...) - lots of others won't. This is because the most common way to not have symptoms is to be young and healthy - and thus last on the list of vaccine getters anyway. So - the extra 30-50 million folks who had COVID but didn't know it will ALSO play a role in watching the rates plummet, as the contagious people are up against a) Vaccinated people, 2) Previously infected people and 3) Previously infected but didn't know it.
It was always a fine line - we've been growing this thing at 1% a day more or less - a small change in "willing victims" is going to make a huge change overall.
7 years? No way. Again, because regardless of the "rate" - many people will NEVER get vaccinated.
There is probably already an even deadlier virus on the way so things may never return back to "normal". Evil people will stay evil. This is just the beginning of man-made crap being unleashed on the population. In "normal" conditions, people can't control others. You need calamities or the appearance of calamities to control others. I mean come on. they destroyed the economy for a bad flu. LOL!! Imagine what will happen when something on par to Ebola hits with a similar contagion to COVID
It'll be like Stephen King's The Stand.
It doesn't take much for society to begin to collapse and for people to start acting primitive. Something bigger than this virus would tip things over to that side.
Many of you seem to think the goal is total eradication. Even the author of the article.
The goal is to reduce its rate of transmission to a level where no local health system is at risk of being overwhelmed. That's it.
That is not the goal of some very vocal nanny staters.... they want nothing less than permanent masking because they are the types that would take away everyone's freedom if it meant people lived to the maximum possible lifespan... never-mind that after awhile life becomes not worth living under such regimes. In any case there are many cases throughout history where a vocal few percent have managed to gain power which is why it's important for the silent majority to speak up and stick up for themselves. If you don't fight for your rights you are apt to lose them by control freak ninnies who always have their noses in other people's business.
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