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I'm Independent but I myself have been pessimistic about the GOP's success in future elections but, the more I think about it, the more I realize that the GOP might actually have a much easier time securing the 2024 election compared to 2020 or even 2016 to a degree.
Here's why I believe this:
1. With Trump out of the picture, the Biden Administration and Democrats will no longer be able to effectively fall back on TDS or blaming Trump for the nation's issues. It won't resonate with people anymore. A large portion of Biden votes in 2020 were merely anti-Trump votes in the same vein that a large number of Trump votes in 2016 were anti-Clinton votes.
2. If Biden screws up on the economy, foreign affairs, and handling of COVID to name a few, it would prompt even more people to seek out someone perceived as a very different politician than Biden, which will play in the GOP's favor(albeit we should all ideally want these issues and others to be resolved regardless of who is in charge).
3. The Black population is stagnant and rarely going above the 13% mark and Blacks, as a percentage, are the biggest supporters of the Democrat Party followed closely by Jewish Americans. The biggest growth in the U.S. is from Asian and Hispanic immigrants who are more likely to be a wild card politically.
4. Biden already said he won't run again in 2024 and this is unlikely to change due to his age. Harris is far more polarizing than Biden so it's very unlikely that Harris will secure the 2024 election given that she's further left than Hillary and Black on top of that, especially with no TDS to fall back on.
The only real obstacle would be if Trump's "Patriot Party" blows up big and splits the Republican base off, giving Democrats an easy victory. Hopefully, Trump will back off and "pass the torch" so to speak to another GOP candidate(Pence, Cruz, Nikki, Rubio, Rand Paul, etc.) so that his base will rally around that person on top of other types of Republicans, Independents, and Blue Dog Democrats.
But yeah...I was highly pessimistic of the GOP's future initially but, the more I think about it, the more I actually think they'll easily be able to win 2024 as long as nobody completely f*cks it up.
What's your take though? What do you realistically think will be the GOP's success rate in the 2024 election?
Obviously too early to know, but if all the stuff that conservatives claim is going to happen in the next few years the GOP will win in a walk.
However, the conservatives are going to claim those things "happened" whether they do or not. If that's the case it will be close and the conservatives will claim that the Dems cheated again.
The key is unity of the GOP. Trump dictating which candidates by his endorsement and they then win with a claim Trump did it ..... will not bode well if the continued split toward a new Trumpist (Patriot) Party is pushed that I heard at first, the chatter on a turn to promoting Reaganomics and the Reagan-era over the Trump era claiming party control. I thought it was the steer the GOP as a Party off Trump and onto Reagan-style again? Then I find out it is a new separate Party off the GOP movement also?
So still the GOP has some issues with Trump still pushing control and any rejection of Trump means you will NOT get elected as a GOP candidate or votes from most. I would hope overall the Trump-era lessens and naturally moves away from the Trump-era and its baggage and residual negatives, but with Trump not now.... formally fully impeached and finally speaking -- of we have not heard the last of him ..... It seems he is REASSURING his old base he has their back.... keep moving forward with him at their side and perhaps helm again or candidates he endorses alone....
Lot depends on how this Biden-era progresses and seeing Democrats as evil/one world order/ socialist/commies party who want to destroy America and that keeps this FIRE going for Trump in the GOP and Conspiracy Theories continue to fuel it and Trump himself.
So HOPE clearly can be called the desire. Still a lot to be sorted up on how well the GOP can distance from Trump... for years to come be beholding and forced to bow to him by allowing him to even seek office again. Still lots of law-suits in states and NYC against Trump will have to come and pass also.
How well this Biden-era unfolds.... and just all the rhetoric we read on C-D especially the Politics forum that is constantly re-cycled to demonize can become less the focus and fed by Conspiracy Theories. SEEMS LIKELY this will NOT SLOW anytime soon. If Trump finds a new forum to use as Twitter and more News Channels to air his claims? The GOP will either be left to unite under Trump and Trumpist who still see him as their only hope? Or win a move away from Trump that can divide the party or FORCE a unity toward a continued Trump-era force over even a rehashing attempt at a Reagan-era style promoted within the Party in unity over a division also from it.... will fail or split into a new party also?
You'all will have a choice and will play out in the next couple years and ultimately by the 4th one again. If the US continues in more extremes and the current Government seen as illegitimate and we even do not have a Government since the 1800s but a Corporation masking as a Government believed? We as a Nation are in for more problems over hope.
My Hope is division, blame. masked hate. seeing a evil motive is what one Party is all about vs one that is the Righteous one.... and militias or groups claimed to be Patriotic Americans for Freedom, but acting out as Militias? If this festers and grows to force CONTROL over the GOP? We will have major issues yet to come.
I knew going into 2021, the unemployment rate needs to drop fast to pre covid levels or the party in charge will take the hit over it. If the inflation rates spikes, the party in charge will take the hit. If tax rates rise, the party in charge will take the hit.
If they liberals can't at least get marijuana removed from the drug schedule before they lose power their usefulness will be limited. It's the one issue that would make them popular.. granted it would be a one time boost, but I don't know why they don't use it to their advantage. It's the one issue that would win either parties more votes.
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