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Old 02-23-2021, 09:29 AM
 
Location: Seattle
5,117 posts, read 2,159,880 times
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So in summary, Parisians are lovers and not fighters? Nothing to see here folks....
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Old 02-23-2021, 09:36 AM
 
Location: Southwest Suburbs
4,593 posts, read 9,191,133 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
This is a long post, but there is lots of data that needs to be shown to back up my thread title. I'll break it up into a couple seperate posts.

We have been told time and time again by some conservatives on this forum how great places like North Dakota are. Among other reasons, we are told one reason why places like ND are so great is because they have rock-bottom murder rates. This is attributed to their being low-population-density states run by rock-solid conservatives, and that they have very low populations of .... ermmm ... "democrats." And otherwise ... "liberals."

The problem with that thesis is that elsewhere in the developed world, there are cities which represent everything these conservatives loathe whose homicide rates are even lower than North Dakota!

Paris, France, is one such city. It is a large, crowded, multi-cultural, ultra-liberal city. According to conservative rhetoric on this forum, it should be a murderous, destitute and generally miserable place. So let's see if it is!

We'll start with Paris' murder rate. To get the latest data on murder rates in various places in France, go to the following link. It's in French, but I'll explain how to get the data. Or, your browser might have a translator you can use:

Data.gouv.fr - homicides by Police Nationale department

The title of the link says 2012 but when you either download the spreadsheet ("Télécharger") or view the table viewer ("Prévisualiser"), the most recent data is for 2020. The spreadsheet actually has all data from 2012-2020. To see data for Paris you have to download the spreadsheet. It is organized according to how police responsibilities in France are organized, which I won't go into. To see 2020 data for Paris, at the bottom of the spreadsheet click on the "Services PN 2020" tab. Each column at the top contains the official number of every French Départment. Départments are administrative regions which are equivalent of somewhere between a county and a state in the US. The Départment code for Paris is 75, and Paris happens to have its own Départment which is coincident with the Paris city limits. The first 3 rows beneath the headers (that is, rows 4-6) contain different kinds of homicides. Thus, to get the # of homicides for Paris, add up all the numbers in the first 3 rows beneath the headers in all of the "75" columns (of which there are a few dozen of).

Doing that gives you 33 murders for 2020.
Repeating those steps for 2019 gives you 47 homicides.
2018 had 46 homicides.
2017 had 33 homicides.

That should be a good recent sample.

The estimated 2018 population of Paris was 2,175,601 (source). Paris' population isn't changing much these days so we can safely use the same figure for the other recent years:

Thus, for 2018, the murder rate in Paris was 2.11 murders/100K people.
2020 gives us a murder rate of 1.51 murders/100K people.
With just one more murder in 2019 the murder rate would be about the same as 2018.
2017 would be the same as 2020 since it had the same # of murders.

For comparison, in 2018 the homicide rate in North Dakota was 2.5 murders/100K people.

Yes, that is correct: Ultra-liberal, crowded, multi-cultural Paris, France - population 2.1 million - has, even in its worst 2 years in the last 4 years, a lower murder rate than conservative, republican North Dakota - with 762,000 spread out in wide-open spaces.

According to conservative propaganda, this should not be possible. But there it is.
Cool stats.

But you know, this won't matter to many if there aren't many black people in Paris proper. How black is Paris city proper?
From what I know, the non-white populations( including North Africans) are in the surrounding suburbs. These places are poorer and contains the worst slums in the region. Paris itself has small( <50 sq. miles) city limits, which I think fuels the higher cost of living. But even with that taken in consideration, I doubt the rate would be a whole lot exponentially higher. Maybe about as high as North Dakota at worst.
Quote:
Originally Posted by UrbanQuest View Post
Not all of Paris. Most cities in the world have wealthier cores. The US and it’s white flight is the outlier.
American cities have wealthier cores within the core city itself. Chicago perhaps exemplify this the best. Downtown Chicago + core neighborhoods along the northern lake shore and northwest( Lincoln Park, Wicker Park, etc.) are thriving and a totally different animal than the often poorer(and decaying) neighborhoods that exist at greater distances away from downtown. The highest density areas are the most vibrant and generating relatively low violent crime rates. The north side( large swaths being highly multicultural or multiracial) had murder rate of 4 or 5/100k in 2020, compared to around 45/100k on the south/southwest side and 89/100k( one district topped a rate of 130/100k) for a considerable section of the west side. The tale of two( or three) cities is real.

Last edited by Chicagoland60426; 02-23-2021 at 09:48 AM..
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Old 02-23-2021, 09:40 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,862 posts, read 9,518,220 times
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^
I addressed the demographic issues in this post here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Lastly, we'll look at the demographics of Paris.

In France it is taboo to officially record somebody's race and their religion. So, if two Muslims from Somalia have a kid born in Paris, that kid is simply recorded as being "French." It is only when you're born somewhere else that you can be recorded as something different.

As a result of that, we can look at foreign-born percentages of people in Paris, and realize that only gives us a partial picture of how multicultural the city is.

From my link above, 20% of the city's population were immigrants - and I note that's old data from 2006. The percentage nowadays is almost certainly higher.

You can get an anecdotal taste of how multicultural the city is by viewing one of the many "walking Paris" videos you can find on Youtube.

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Old 02-23-2021, 09:55 AM
 
Location: Pacific Beach/San Diego
4,750 posts, read 3,564,736 times
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Six whole pages and lovescrowds is nowhere to be seen??? Someone alert him quickly - - this is his type of post!
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Old 02-23-2021, 10:13 AM
 
11,630 posts, read 12,691,000 times
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Unlike American cities, the immigrants predominantly live in the suburbs. Is this a statistic for within Paris city limits or the Paris metro area?

French prisons make American prisons look like country clubs. Regular citizens do not have guns, but everyday police are armed to the wazoo.
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Old 02-23-2021, 10:52 AM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
20,862 posts, read 9,518,220 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coney View Post
Unlike American cities, the immigrants predominantly live in the suburbs. Is this a statistic for within Paris city limits or the Paris metro area?
This is within the Paris city limits. I was actually thinking of doing the same exercise for the two Departments north of Paris, which is where a lot of immigrants live. I did see one statistic for one of them (which I don't feel like looking for right now), and murder rates are very low there, too. Maybe tonight I'll do those.

Quote:
French prisons make American prisons look like country clubs. Regular citizens do not have guns, but everyday police are armed to the wazoo.
According to various things I've read, local police in France do not usually carry weapons (though, sometimes they do), but the national police do. I think Paris is patrolled by a mixture of the two.
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Old 02-23-2021, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Midwest City, Oklahoma
14,848 posts, read 8,202,687 times
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1) The murder rate in European countries is generally much lower than in America.
2) Liberalism has nothing to do with murder rates.
3) Are the murder rates higher or lower in the more "multicultural" parts of the city?
4) Were crime rates lower before it became more multicultural? If it becomes more multicultural should we expect crime rates to go up or down?
5) Paris, much like other international cities, is basically a two-tiered city. Rich whites and poor non-whites living almost completely separately. With a large police presence to maintain order. Paris has about 30,000 cops for 6.4 million people. New York City has 36,000 police for about 8.4 million people. So New York City has about 4.28 police per 1,000 residents. While Paris has 4.69 police per 1,000 residents. Paris has a greater police presence than any major American city.
6) The people who live in North Dakota would HATE living in Paris. Paris is a playground for rich people, and hell on Earth for lightly-melanated non-rich people.
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Old 02-23-2021, 01:28 PM
 
Location: Pacific Beach/San Diego
4,750 posts, read 3,564,736 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Redshadowz View Post
1)
6) The people who live in North Dakota would HATE living in Paris. Paris is a playground for rich people, and hell on Earth for lightly-melanated non-rich people.
And people who like to live in California would HATE living in North Dakota. That hasn't stopped one poster in particular to post about it ceaselessly.
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Old 02-23-2021, 02:49 PM
 
Location: Katy,Texas
6,470 posts, read 4,066,378 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
This is within the Paris city limits. I was actually thinking of doing the same exercise for the two Departments north of Paris, which is where a lot of immigrants live. I did see one statistic for one of them (which I don't feel like looking for right now), and murder rates are very low there, too. Maybe tonight I'll do those.


According to various things I've read, local police in France do not usually carry weapons (though, sometimes they do), but the national police do. I think Paris is patrolled by a mixture of the two.
1. People like to characterize Paris as a city with a rich core and poor suburbs, this is factually not true. First of all, nearly all of Paris's Western suburbs are super-rich to upper middle class. With a few poorer communities sprinkled in, especially NW like Cergy/Mantes-la-Jolie. North Paris is the poorest part of Paris, but it's really just Seine-Saint Denis, and a few communities in Val'd Oise, even in Seine-Saint Denis it's western parts (directly north of Paris) are the worst of the worst, as well as a few central(NE of Paris) parts. Eastern portion of Seine-Saint Denis isn't too bad, and overall Eastern Paris is middle class. Not as rich as the Western portion but nowhere as poor as the northern one either. SE of Paris is mostly upper-middle class but it's a smaller area. Directly South of Paris has several questionable areas but it's nowhere as bad as the northern suburbs. overall South is middle class with SW being wealthy, and SE being upper-middle class to some extent.

2. Paris itself is seen as all around bougie but the NE arrondissements of the city are still poorer than the Western portions of the city. Although nowhere as bad as any of the suburbs directly North and a bit NE, and not even as bad as some of the Southern towns or NW towns that are nearly as poor but far less concentrated. The poorest suburb of Paris is actually Grigny in the South.

3. As you can see the suburbs of Paris are far more complicated than, suburbs bad, city good. Even North bad West good the rest "meh". Even if you make those generalizations, the South by itself has all the above in income range/safety while the East is more equal from an income perspective across the board, so while their both in the middle, theirs's nuance there.
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Old 02-23-2021, 03:04 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley, CA
13,561 posts, read 10,348,473 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TristramShandy View Post
Six whole pages and lovescrowds is nowhere to be seen??? Someone alert him quickly - - this is his type of post!
Exactly. It's a nice rejoinder to him.
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