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HR 1 is the key to what elections will be like in 2022 and beyond.
If the Democrats get their way, the election will be decided by whoever has the most registrations. The days of people not voting will not matter anymore. Just print empty ballots and have them ready to equal the number of registered Democratic voters.
I’m hoping Republicans will fight this bill, and even if they lose and Biden signs off on it, challenge it in the Supreme Court. I’m gonna assume that if McConnell wants the Bill killed by SCOTUS, the judges will listen to him.
Of course, I thought they were going to do that in 2020, but I was dead wrong as Roberts punted.
There are a couple of very interesting trends related to Florida.
The Dems trying to campaign remotely was a giant bust for them. People in the state warned of this before the election. The question is how much going back to in person helps them in 2 or 4 years.
Similarly, Republicans were much more aggressive with registration drives between 2018 and 2020 and specifically through the pandemic. Can Ds match that effort.
The final one is that Florida is the only state where the number of old white folks increases- but could peeling 10-20k older voters from multiple midwestern states solidify Florida while tilting their previous states Dem? If you look at Wisconsin, its entirely possible for a Dem margin of victory to be equivalent to the number of voters moving elsewhere. You also have to wonder if that helps Dems in upstate NY congressional races.
After covid is forgotten, Florida Republicans will still be challenged to hold the party line on climate change while the ground gets wetter and the drinking water gets saltier. That is also an opportunity to become the party that is serious about environmental action and take a big slice of green voters from the Dems.
Florida has closed primaries, so I think that has something to do with it. My parents are moderate D but want to switch to R just because they have not liked the more recent candidates nominated on the R side. I also lived in a very R district and would have switched had I stayed there for any of the major elections. Registering one way doesn’t mean you will actually vote that way in the general elections.
Young working professionals have been migrating to Florida for the past year because they can work remotely due to the pandemic. Such workers have been leaving big metro areas where they had to live before due to their job/office location. Once they switched to remote work, they were able to move to the location of their choice.
These voters are most likely to be suburban and urban type voters.
HR 1 is the key to what elections will be like in 2022 and beyond.
If the Democrats get their way, the election will be decided by whoever has the most registrations. The days of people not voting will not matter anymore. Just print empty ballots and have them ready to equal the number of registered Democratic voters.
I’m hoping Republicans will fight this bill, and even if they lose and Biden signs off on it, challenge it in the Supreme Court. I’m gonna assume that if McConnell wants the Bill killed by SCOTUS, the judges will listen to him.
Of course, I thought they were going to do that in 2020, but I was dead wrong as Roberts punted.
In order for the SCOTUS to "kill" the bill, it first has to be enacted into law, then someone with standing has to challenge it. In order to have standing, someone has to show that they were personally harmed by the law. Usually they have to challenge it in district court, then appeals court before it goes to SCOTUS. So you see, if this bill becomes law it will be a long time if ever before it is killed.
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