Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 24 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,560 posts, read 16,548,014 times
Reputation: 6042
Advertisements
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doncicmavsfan
Perhaps people will start moving to OH, PA, MI and WI once they become solidly red states like GA, NC, SC, FL, TN and TX? Yes, most of those have become more blue, but that’s a result of the people who started pouring in years ago when the states were more red.
In modern history only on TWO occasions have any of these 6 fast growing states went blue nationally:
2008 NC went blue (49.7% Obama vs 49.38% McCain) and followed it up by going red in 2012, 2016 and 2020.
1. Obama won Florida twice
2. No one is moving to the conservative areas any of those states.
Quote:
2020 GA went blue (49.47% Biden vs 49.24% Trump) but we have no frame of reference to put the 2020 election in perspective.
You cant make this argument and then say "trump broke the blue wall and now they are all swing states"
2. No one is moving to the conservative areas any of those states.
Where did you get that data?
Quote:
You cant make this argument and then say "trump broke the blue wall and now they are all swing states"
Why not? If I’m labeling states like NC and GA as swing states — why wouldn’t I do the same for WI, MI and PA? In this very thread we have people arguing they have been swing states for decades prior to Trump winning them in 2016.
Your link doesnt actually provide information and based on how they define California, it seems they are applying issues based spending to one side and not the other.
For example, Florida had a vote on the minimum wage, it seems to be assigning pro $15 spending to Dems, but not anti $15 to Republicans.
This was written on 10/13/20 and says Biden’s campaign had spent 600 million compared to 400 million for Trump.
Quote:
Here's a state-by-state breakdown of where the campaigns and outside groups are on the airwaves:
Florida: $257.5 million
Biden and allies: $154.1 million ($82.3 million from campaign)
Trump and allies: $103.4 million ($67.7 million from campaign)
Quote:
None of your links say that. He pledged 100M to florida, but spent it in multiple states.
Regardless, we know a portion of it went to Florida. Florida was the state he originally announced all of it would be going to...probably to influence the priorities of Trump’s campaign.
Quote:
Your link is from 2019 seeing as many people on that list arent even governors anymore.
Not too easy finding a poll specifically conducted to assess the popularity of multiple governors.
Here is a March 2nd poll that has Whitmer at 49% favorable/44% unfavorable:
I find it funny you could google this, but not a single approval rating from 2020 or 2021. LOL
Like the two polls above — it’s pretty difficult to make any comparison unless you have the same pollster doing multiple states at the same time. Not that easy as approval polls for governors are pretty sparse.
Quote:
they are both sitting at like 53%
What poll?
Quote:
My point is that 10 points in Michigan isnt as much as 5 points in Florida, but I guess that went over your head.
Maybe so — I’m not sure what point you’re making.
just throwing my $.02 in, but I have a little different opinion going forward...
Safe Reds (will always be red) - 32 EV's (2024 map)
Oklahoma
West Virginia
North Dakota
South Dakota
Idaho
Alabama
Wyoming
Almost Safe Reds (would require a massive change in population to turn Blue) - 50 EV's
Arkansas
Mississippi
Louisiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Nebraska
Tennessee
Solid Reds (could theoretically turn Blue if population changes pick up the pace in a few decades, or have been trending red for a while now) - 39 EV;s
Missouri - should be joining the next category next cycle. Not enough blue voters in STL and KC
Indiana - in the same boat as Missouri. Each had a Dem senator who lost in 2018 (McCaskill and Donnelly)
Alaska - Murkowski's election will be interesting... A good moderate Dem might be able to take it if she gets attacked too much...
South Carolina - growth is starting to make things interesting, but Dems need more results here
Utah - same thing with SC. Dems need results, and they currently don't have a single one in the delegation in Washington
Competitive Reds (either trending red or trending blue but with a red tilt currently, still in play for Dems) - 23 EV's
Iowa - also starting to trend more red. GOP won two House seats in '20 and defended Ernst, but both are still close...
Ohio - starting to trend red. '22 Senate race will tell us a lot
Swing Reds (either trending blue at a solid clip or close states where Reds are still winning) - 104 EV's
Florida - GOPers are still winning, but its close. Trump's approach with South FL voters wont work every time
Texas - without Texas, GOPers would have to win the entire blue wall to have a chance at the WH
North Carolina - Charlotte suburbs got a lot bluer since '16, specifically Cabarrus and Union. IF the GOP loses those two its over
Georgia - it went blue and it has two Dem senators but 2020 seemed maybe a little too good to be true
Swing Blues (either trending red at a solid clip or close states where Dems are winning currently) - 56 EV's
Arizona - With the rate of migration from Cali AZ is trending blue pretty fast. Maricopa went +6 more Dem between '16 and '20
Wisconsin - Trump got these states into flip territory. His message won't work every time, but credit to him I suppose...
Pennsylvania - see WI
Michigan - see WI
Competitive Blues (either trending blue or trending red but with a blue advantage, in play for GOP) - 19 EV's
New Hampshire - '22 Senate race between Hassan and possibly Sununu will be razor close
Minnesota - GOP needs to make inroads in the Twin Cities for a flip here. '20 set them back a bit
Nevada - same with MN, but GOP needs to do better in Vegas...
Solid Blues (could theoretically turn Red if population changes pick up the pace in a few decades, or have trended blue for a while now) - 27 EV's
Virginia - been trending blue. NOVA has a big influence... and they just legalized weed.
Colorado - Gardner had no chance this past cycle. could jump into the next tier in a couple more cycles
Maine - Collins' kind of conservatism is the only good option in the playbook for GOPers right now...
Almost Safe Blues (would require a massive population change to turn Red) - 13 EV's
New Mexico
Oregon
Safe Blues (will always be blue) - 171 EV's
New York
California
Illinois
Delaware
Washington
Vermont
Connecticut
Rhode Island
New Jersey
Maryland
Hawaii
Massachusetts
DC
Even with Ohio, FL, and Iowa trending red at the moment, Arizona, NC, Texas, and Georgia are trending blue. It doesn't take a wizard to know what is more important to the GOP vote. With AZ and GA going blue, that's 28 EV's that shifted from red to blue. The three blue wall states total 44 EV's. So yes, if those 3 can go red, that's great. The issue is, they haven't gone red yet. and 2020 put off that event for probably at least another cycle or two. AND Republicans are having issues in Texas and NC. Florida and Ohio going red helps, but the GOP is in a pretty tough spot even with those two states...
Minnesota and Maine should be in the same tier. What saves Maine is that the GOP at least makes an effort to nominate palatable conservatives. If anything it should be a tier friendlier to Rs since it will still elect them. Minnesota is only getting bluer as the Twin Cities grow and rural areas decline. I actually read an interesting article theorizing that young Midwesterners/young plains state grads moving to the Twin Cities were making the state more blue and pulling the adjacent states (including Wi) away from Dems.
NC is basically a purple state- it is the last R state holding on but has gone Dem for half the state offices. I believe only two candidates cleared more than a two percent win (the D Governor and R Lt Governor.) Trump made major inroads in the SE corner of the state but Dems are swinging the suburbs. It is also a high growth state. In 2024 Ohio will be worth 17 votes while Ga and NC will be worth 16. Equally important the Ga and NC combo would be the equivalent of Florida which is more R tilting than either at the moment.
Minnesota and Maine should be in the same tier. What saves Maine is that the GOP at least makes an effort to nominate palatable conservatives. If anything it should be a tier friendlier to Rs since it will still elect them. Minnesota is only getting bluer as the Twin Cities grow and rural areas decline. I actually read an interesting article theorizing that young Midwesterners/young plains state grads moving to the Twin Cities were making the state more blue and pulling the adjacent states (including Wi) away from Dems.
NC is basically a purple state- it is the last R state holding on but has gone Dem for half the state offices. I believe only two candidates cleared more than a two percent win (the D Governor and R Lt Governor.) Trump made major inroads in the SE corner of the state but Dems are swinging the suburbs. It is also a high growth state. In 2024 Ohio will be worth 17 votes while Ga and NC will be worth 16. Equally important the Ga and NC combo would be the equivalent of Florida which is more R tilting than either at the moment.
You're right, Southeast NC swung for Trump. Robeson ended up going for him by 19 points, he flipped Scotland, he improved in Richmond, and he made up ground in Anson, as well as Bladen and Columbus. He only lost in Cumberland, Hoke, and New Hanover, and outside of those two only Brunswick County got bluer. I guess it offsets a little bit where the Republicans are losing in the burbs...
With MN I guess I was just thinking about 2016 where that got pretty narrow. Hillary only got 46.5% of the vote, and Trump was within 1.5%. Trump got beat badly in the MSP suburbs... Looking at it now I probably would group it in that tier...
Even with Ohio, FL, and Iowa trending red at the moment, Arizona, NC, Texas, and Georgia are trending blue. It doesn't take a wizard to know what is more important to the GOP vote. With AZ and GA going blue, that's 28 EV's that shifted from red to blue. The three blue wall states total 44 EV's. So yes, if those 3 can go red, that's great. The issue is, they haven't gone red yet. and 2020 put off that event for probably at least another cycle or two. AND Republicans are having issues in Texas and NC. Florida and Ohio going red helps, but the GOP is in a pretty tough spot even with those two states...
Really appreciate the detailed analysis, but Montana is missing. Obviously a red-leaning state, but one which has demonstrated more flexibility than many others. It may gain a 2nd district with the upcoming reapportionment and the western part of the state is sometimes competitive.
2. No one is moving to the conservative areas any of those states.
Look at conservative and affordable western Michigan. Grand Rapids is growing and attracting young college educated professionals who can’t afford Chicago. Part of the reason Michigan is turning blue.
Really appreciate the detailed analysis, but Montana is missing. Obviously a red-leaning state, but one which has demonstrated more flexibility than many others. It may gain a 2nd district with the upcoming reapportionment and the western part of the state is sometimes competitive.
oof. I knew I was missing one of them. I'd probably place it in the Solid Reds tier. I think it having a Dem senator (who is rather popular) helps them there, and yea some of the Western Montana cities can be competitive. People seem to be more open to other parties, something you won't see in Tennessee or Louisiana... Solid Reds probably next to Alaska is where I'd have it...
just throwing my $.02 in, but I have a little different opinion going forward...
Safe Reds (will always be red) - 32 EV's (2024 map)
Oklahoma
West Virginia
North Dakota
South Dakota
Idaho
Alabama
Wyoming
Almost Safe Reds (would require a massive change in population to turn Blue) - 50 EV's
Arkansas
Mississippi
Louisiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Nebraska
Tennessee
Solid Reds (could theoretically turn Blue if population changes pick up the pace in a few decades, or have been trending red for a while now) - 39 EV;s
Missouri - should be joining the next category next cycle. Not enough blue voters in STL and KC
Indiana - in the same boat as Missouri. Each had a Dem senator who lost in 2018 (McCaskill and Donnelly)
Alaska - Murkowski's election will be interesting... A good moderate Dem might be able to take it if she gets attacked too much...
South Carolina - growth is starting to make things interesting, but Dems need more results here
Utah - same thing with SC. Dems need results, and they currently don't have a single one in the delegation in Washington
Competitive Reds (either trending red or trending blue but with a red tilt currently, still in play for Dems) - 23 EV's
Iowa - also starting to trend more red. GOP won two House seats in '20 and defended Ernst, but both are still close...
Ohio - starting to trend red. '22 Senate race will tell us a lot
Swing Reds (either trending blue at a solid clip or close states where Reds are still winning) - 104 EV's
Florida - GOPers are still winning, but its close. Trump's approach with South FL voters wont work every time
Texas - without Texas, GOPers would have to win the entire blue wall to have a chance at the WH
North Carolina - Charlotte suburbs got a lot bluer since '16, specifically Cabarrus and Union. IF the GOP loses those two its over
Georgia - it went blue and it has two Dem senators but 2020 seemed maybe a little too good to be true
Swing Blues (either trending red at a solid clip or close states where Dems are winning currently) - 56 EV's
Arizona - With the rate of migration from Cali AZ is trending blue pretty fast. Maricopa went +6 more Dem between '16 and '20
Wisconsin - Trump got these states into flip territory. His message won't work every time, but credit to him I suppose...
Pennsylvania - see WI
Michigan - see WI
Competitive Blues (either trending blue or trending red but with a blue advantage, in play for GOP) - 19 EV's
New Hampshire - '22 Senate race between Hassan and possibly Sununu will be razor close
Minnesota - GOP needs to make inroads in the Twin Cities for a flip here. '20 set them back a bit
Nevada - same with MN, but GOP needs to do better in Vegas...
Solid Blues (could theoretically turn Red if population changes pick up the pace in a few decades, or have trended blue for a while now) - 27 EV's
Virginia - been trending blue. NOVA has a big influence... and they just legalized weed.
Colorado - Gardner had no chance this past cycle. could jump into the next tier in a couple more cycles
Maine - Collins' kind of conservatism is the only good option in the playbook for GOPers right now...
Almost Safe Blues (would require a massive population change to turn Red) - 13 EV's
New Mexico
Oregon
Safe Blues (will always be blue) - 171 EV's
New York
California
Illinois
Delaware
Washington
Vermont
Connecticut
Rhode Island
New Jersey
Maryland
Hawaii
Massachusetts
DC
Even with Ohio, FL, and Iowa trending red at the moment, Arizona, NC, Texas, and Georgia are trending blue. It doesn't take a wizard to know what is more important to the GOP vote. With AZ and GA going blue, that's 28 EV's that shifted from red to blue. The three blue wall states total 44 EV's. So yes, if those 3 can go red, that's great. The issue is, they haven't gone red yet. and 2020 put off that event for probably at least another cycle or two. AND Republicans are having issues in Texas and NC. Florida and Ohio going red helps, but the GOP is in a pretty tough spot even with those two states...
If FL, OH and IA are indeed going red as I believe, it essentially sounds like PA, WI, MI, NV, AZ, GA and NC are the swing states that will likely decide the election in 2024. We can talk all day about which way certain states are moving but those states have shown to be right in the middle enough to go either way right now.
With the above mentioned states being swing states, the GOP starts with around 220 electoral votes. Winning NC and GA for example would put them at 252. This means a win in PA would be enough...or NV/AZ...or WI/NV....or MI/NV, etc.
This is a MUCH better position than the path they were trying to take with McCain and Romney....essentially having to win ALL swing states that were considered competitive.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Obviously a red-leaning state, but one which has demonstrated more flexibility than many others. It may gain a 2nd district with the upcoming reapportionment and the western part of the state is sometimes competitive.
