I'm so proud of Ohio (regular, Barack Obama, March, Denver)

[Tess_Vantassel]

Ohio is a socially conservative state. As long as democrats are pushing bull**** like critical race theory, Equity, gun control, and the green new deal, Ohio will remain out of reach for them.

Tim Ryan just barely squeaked by last election in a district that is gerrymandered to be a democratic stronghold. Last election He couldn’t even win his own home hometown, There is no way he’ll win a the senate race in 2022, especially after all the insanely disastrous bills Biden and the far left are pushing through.

Sherrod brown wins because people still think he’s a moderate, and people believe he cares because he grandstands a lot. People are easily fooled! Sherrod puts his party over his constituents time and time again. But Unlike Tim Ryan, Sherrod Brown knows how to play the game.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by Tess_Vantassel

Ohio is a socially conservative state. As long as democrats are pushing bull**** like critical race theory, Equity, gun control, and the green new deal, Ohio will remain out of reach for them.

DO people like you actually believe this ?

Tim Ryan just barely squeaked by last election in a district that is gerrymandered to be a democratic stronghold

No it wasnt, the old 17th, was gerrymandered to be a sinkhole for Democratic votes, thats where Tim Ryan was originally elected. The 13th, however was created to split Democratic votes, and Tim Ryan has simply held on.

Last election He couldn’t even win his own home hometown,

He won Warren. I think you mean he couldnt win his home county,

[Ohiogirl81]

Originally Posted by Tess_Vantassel

Tim Ryan just barely squeaked by last election in a district that is gerrymandered to be a democratic stronghold.

Seriously? Have you been following Ohio politics for the past 2 decades? Ryan's district was drawn to dilute the Democratic vote, as just about every other Congressional district in Ohio has been drawn. There's a reason the city of Cincinnati is split in half, for instance. Take a look at the 9th District, and the districts that border it, and tell me those districts weren't drawn to benefit Republicans.

Sherrod brown wins because people still think he’s a moderate, and people believe he cares because he grandstands a lot. People are easily fooled! Sherrod puts his party over his constituents time and time again.

a) Sherrod Brown is a moderate, but to Republicans who have gone so far off the deep right end he looks like a wild eyed radical.
b) Projecting?
c) Got any examples? I'm not seeing it.

[Storm King]

Georgia is not gaining an electoral vote, however NC Florida Arizona and Texas are.

Georgia will be become a much bluer state than Arizona. There are more swing moderates in the latter that could come back the GOP, however Atlanta is growing at rocket fuel and attracting a much more diverse and Dem leaning crowd.

Texas is trending blue, and could flip as early as 2024, although I think it will go blue for the first Democratic President after the next Republican incumbent president. Whether that is 2028, 2032, or later. The thing is that the southwest isn't going to go blue mainly due to hispanics but rather suburbanites which will take some time.

Florida is a red leaning state, but Dems can win it still. Biden could even win it in 2024, it votes for incumbent Presidents. Bill Clinton lost it in 1992 but won it in 1996. Democrats need to claw back ground in South Florida though. If Miami-Dade is anywhere close to single digits, then Republicans are winning Florida.

Ohio and Iowa are trending Republican, and I think its time for Dems to pull the plug on Iowa. State is too white and rural to become a Dem state again in the near future. Ohio can still be contested because Senator Brown is up for re-election in 2024, but even that too is trending red.

North Carolina is an interesting one. It was a solid red state on the presidential level until 2008 when Obama flipped it. Since then it has voted R again, but by much smaller margins than before. Unlike Georgia there is a smaller black population and nothing like Atlanta. Additionally, the rural parts of the state are trending more GOP while in Georgia they are nearly maxed out.

Future swing states I could see are Utah, Kansas, and Alaska.
Biden was only 10 pts away in Alaska, and the state is starting to trend Dem. Kansas has suburban Johnson county growing rapidly and Trump just won it by 14 compared to 20 in 2016. Utah also is very educated but only votes R due to LDS. As the future generation is less LDS it will trend blue.

[Boss1234]

Originally Posted by Doncicmavsfan

Bush 1? Wow — you’re going back to the 80s? A different world.

From a pre 2016 election perspective — Trump was NOT the guy that would put the blue wall in play. All the polls had him down big...which was of no surprise considering past results for republicans in those state.

Regardless, as I originally said — FL, OH and IA look to be moving comfortably red. The swing states are now PA, MI, WI, NC, NV, GA and AZ.

This opens the board significantly for republicans.

Prior to Trump republicans were going in feeling somewhat comfortable they had ~177 electoral votes with their best chance of winning (polls confirmed) being to **run the table** on swing states by winning FL, OH, IA, NC, AZ, NV and CO or VA. They had to win them ALL. Dems just needed ONE. Awesome for them.

This is basically the path Bush II took in 2000 and 2004 — which now seems impossible.

I would even say it's safe to also say that NC is now a reliably red state. NC went red in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
Republicans don't need all the swing states. An R could win Ohio, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Texas, and Michigan and still win the election.

[Boss1234]

Originally Posted by Storm King

Georgia is not gaining an electoral vote, however NC Florida Arizona and Texas are.

Georgia will be become a much bluer state than Arizona. There are more swing moderates in the latter that could come back the GOP, however Atlanta is growing at rocket fuel and attracting a much more diverse and Dem leaning crowd.

Texas is trending blue, and could flip as early as 2024, although I think it will go blue for the first Democratic President after the next Republican incumbent president. Whether that is 2028, 2032, or later. The thing is that the southwest isn't going to go blue mainly due to hispanics but rather suburbanites which will take some time.

Florida is a red leaning state, but Dems can win it still. Biden could even win it in 2024, it votes for incumbent Presidents. Bill Clinton lost it in 1992 but won it in 1996. Democrats need to claw back ground in South Florida though. If Miami-Dade is anywhere close to single digits, then Republicans are winning Florida.

Ohio and Iowa are trending Republican, and I think its time for Dems to pull the plug on Iowa. State is too white and rural to become a Dem state again in the near future. Ohio can still be contested because Senator Brown is up for re-election in 2024, but even that too is trending red.

North Carolina is an interesting one. It was a solid red state on the presidential level until 2008 when Obama flipped it. Since then it has voted R again, but by much smaller margins than before. Unlike Georgia there is a smaller black population and nothing like Atlanta. Additionally, the rural parts of the state are trending more GOP while in Georgia they are nearly maxed out.

Future swing states I could see are Utah, Kansas, and Alaska.
Biden was only 10 pts away in Alaska, and the state is starting to trend Dem. Kansas has suburban Johnson county growing rapidly and Trump just won it by 14 compared to 20 in 2016. Utah also is very educated but only votes R due to LDS. As the future generation is less LDS it will trend blue.

I think Georgia went blue because of mail in voters who are way less likely to vote in normal elections. Don't get your hopes up.

With all the illegals entering Texas and allowing them to vote, yes, Texas will turn blue shortly.

Florida has a lot of older white retirees who are conservative and cuban Americans who are conservative because they come from communism and as we know Socialism= Communism. They don't want a repeat of Cuba.

Iowa like you said is too white and rural for the Dems to win. Ohio is very White Working Class Rust Belt. They don't care about these organizations like ANTIFA, BLM, etc. They want jobs.

North Carolina I consider red as it has gone red last three elections.

I disagree that Kansas and Alaska could become swing states. Kansas is similar to Iowa. A high white working class population. And also Kansas votes like 70% R and 30% D. That'd take a lot to flip Kansas. I also don't think Alaska will turn blue.

[mrpeatie]

Originally Posted by Boss1234

I think Georgia went blue because of mail in voters who are way less likely to vote in normal elections. Don't get your hopes up.

With all the illegals entering Texas and allowing them to vote, yes, Texas will turn blue shortly.

Florida has a lot of older white retirees who are conservative and cuban Americans who are conservative because they come from communism and as we know Socialism= Communism. They don't want a repeat of Cuba.

Iowa like you said is too white and rural for the Dems to win. Ohio is very White Working Class Rust Belt. They don't care about these organizations like ANTIFA, BLM, etc. They want jobs.

North Carolina I consider red as it has gone red last three elections.

I disagree that Kansas and Alaska could become swing states. Kansas is similar to Iowa. A high white working class population. And also Kansas votes like 70% R and 30% D. That'd take a lot to flip Kansas. I also don't think Alaska will turn blue.

Kansas went 56-41. So not the 70-30 split but it would take a generation to tilt that deficit.

Georgia is moving away from Rs at the same pace Ohio slipped away from Dems. The major growth center is Atlanta and draws huge numbers of college grads and minorities. The under 18 population is also majoirty minority in the state. By mid decade elections should start at either no party tilt or Democratic candidates being favored.

NC was literally a point state at the Predidential level and Rs & Ds split the state offices. Again- the growth is coming from large metros and suburbs. Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham in particular are exploding and drawing the typed of voters who have been slipping away from Republicans in the last 3 major elections. But in terms of results over the past 4 years it is the most evenly divided state in the country. Pa was the same tilt D as NC was R on the Presidential line but they have not elected any Rs statewide since 2016.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by Storm King

Georgia is not gaining an electoral vote, however NC Florida Arizona and Texas are.

Georgia will be become a much bluer state than Arizona. There are more swing moderates in the latter that could come back the GOP, however Atlanta is growing at rocket fuel and attracting a much more diverse and Dem leaning crowd.

The way the Apportionment is calculated doesnt really make sense.
https://www.census.gov/topics/public...computing.html

I get it, but if we actually did this by population and not this "S" method, every state below Hawaii in population would only have 1 seat.

North Carolina is an interesting one. It was a solid red state on the presidential level until 2008 when Obama flipped it. Since then it has voted R again, but by much smaller margins than before. Unlike Georgia there is a smaller black population and nothing like Atlanta. Additionally, the rural parts of the state are trending more GOP while in Georgia they are nearly maxed out.

Metro Atlanta is about 57% of Georgia's population, only 8 other metros come close to that (cross the 50% mark)

Chicago, Albuquerque, Denver, Boston, Portland, Las Vegas, Providence and Phoenix

But North Carolina has only stayed in Republican hands because Wake, Guilford, Forsyth and Mecklenburg still only vote for Dems at 56% and 67%.

when/if those shift to being 70-30 , it would be the end of Republicans.

[Boss1234]

Originally Posted by mrpeatie

Kansas went 56-41. So not the 70-30 split but it would take a generation to tilt that deficit.

Georgia is moving away from Rs at the same pace Ohio slipped away from Dems. The major growth center is Atlanta and draws huge numbers of college grads and minorities. The under 18 population is also majoirty minority in the state. By mid decade elections should start at either no party tilt or Democratic candidates being favored.

NC was literally a point state at the Predidential level and Rs & Ds split the state offices. Again- the growth is coming from large metros and suburbs. Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham in particular are exploding and drawing the typed of voters who have been slipping away from Republicans in the last 3 major elections. But in terms of results over the past 4 years it is the most evenly divided state in the country. Pa was the same tilt D as NC was R on the Presidential line but they have not elected any Rs statewide since 2016.

Apparently Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte haven't been enough to flip NC these past three times. I consider NC more a red state. The last time it went blue was for Obama.in 2008. That's 13 years.

[mrpeatie]

Originally Posted by Boss1234

Apparently Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte haven't been enough to flip NC these past three times. I consider NC more a red state. The last time it went blue was for Obama.in 2008. That's 13 years.

Dude- you are arguing that a state decided by 1.2 percent that currently has members of both parties elected to statewide office in the most recent election is a 'red state.' It is literally the definition of a purple or swing state. The significance of Raleigh/the research triangle and Charlotte is that they are fueling most of the state's growth and that is where existing suburban voters have been tilting away from Republicans. Its a state that could flip from growth alone since the 2020 margin was 70k votes and the state gains about 100-120k people most years. That's 1% population increase per year.

In four years Wisconsin will be the hardest hold for Democrats and NC the likeliest gain if both states continue their population trends and Demographics.