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Old 04-22-2021, 12:30 PM
 
18,804 posts, read 8,462,725 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AKA Bubbleup View Post
My understanding is that case counts are as important as hospitalizations and deaths as it's part of the calculation to measure or at least estimate treatment capacity.

If the infection rate were say 99% and it didn't overwhelm hospitals and morgues says as much as a 1% infection rate causing a complete and utter catastrophe in the health care industry.
It is still useful if done in a consistent manner, as a short term future hospital needs predictor.

IF we did more thorough case identification and contact tracing, then it could be much more useful and important.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021...s-success.html
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Old 04-22-2021, 12:34 PM
 
18,804 posts, read 8,462,725 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AKA Bubbleup View Post
I'm not an expert in making vaccines but it stands to reason that one could isolate the covid antibodies from the donations and use them as a base for a more traditional vaccine (Instead of mRNA experimental gene therapy).
Isolating antibodies can and has been done, and then given to more recently infected patients with some success.

The mRNA's are more specific and are better than that. As a result our bodies only create antibodies against the spike protein. And yet the vaccines are very effective. Less types of new antibodies and then less chance of future untoward side effects. Theoretically.
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Old 04-22-2021, 01:16 PM
 
8,115 posts, read 3,663,787 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AKA Bubbleup View Post
I'm not an expert in making vaccines but it stands to reason that one could isolate the covid antibodies from the donations and use them as a base for a more traditional vaccine (Instead of mRNA experimental gene therapy).
There is no gene therapy with mRNA vaccines.
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Old 04-22-2021, 01:23 PM
 
Location: Orange County, CA
2,367 posts, read 908,280 times
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It is undertested not underreported. The only accusations I've heard of overreporting is that of cause of death, not of cases. Maybe you heard different?
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Old 04-22-2021, 01:25 PM
 
36,498 posts, read 30,827,524 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by notnamed View Post
I'm referring to those that say the cumulative number of cases is exaggerated, even though it is at merely 9.9% of population over one year in.
I dont recall people saying the cumulative number of positive tests were overreported.
Maybe the covid deaths and I did hear some saying they believed there were a lot of false positives.
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Old 04-22-2021, 01:36 PM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
25,118 posts, read 16,198,148 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by notnamed View Post
Yeah, the real rate is likely at least double.

But a common refrain when comparing our stats to other countries is that our number of cases is exaggerated/made up/etc for political purposes. This is clearly not the case.
we test at a sensitivity most other places don't.

Also, as noted "cases" really doesn't matter.

or, let's look at cases/MM compared to tests/MM (you could also just do cases/tests).


The US, vilified, is at 7.52% positivity. Our deaths/test is at 1.35%
Germany, who's done fantastically well, is at 5.98% positivity. Their deaths/test = 1.51%

Is a 1.54% positivity that much worse than one of the very best comparable nations? That's for you to decide.
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Old 04-22-2021, 01:37 PM
 
858 posts, read 680,223 times
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Per the CDD 21,909 Americans died from influenza between 2019 and 2020.
Also per the CDC, 566,494 Americans died from Covid-19 in the last 12 months.

I am not sure why we are still doubting the severity of Covid-19, or the resistance to wearing a mask or getting vaccinated but we Americans clearly either have a death wish or a majority of us are stone cold stupid. Now that everyone who wants a vaccination can get one, and those that are concerned are wearing masks, and those most at risk have either survived after contracting the virus or are no longer with us, maybe its okay that the conspiracy believing non-science believing nut cases all try as hard as they can to thin the herd and win that Darwin Award.
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Old 04-22-2021, 01:39 PM
 
Location: Raleigh NC
25,118 posts, read 16,198,148 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by notnamed View Post
Yeah, the real rate is likely at least double.

But a common refrain when comparing our stats to other countries is that our number of cases is exaggerated/made up/etc for political purposes. This is clearly not the case.
I've not heard that. Do you have examples?

I know many say the DEATHS are exaggerated, as being "died with Covid" not "died from Covid". It's a really inane argument, if we could just agree the number is somewhere BETWEEN 50K and 550K. But indeed, for political purposes by many, the only acceptable # was the total, and all attributed to 1 person/party.
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Old 04-23-2021, 08:06 AM
 
4,022 posts, read 1,872,571 times
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Right - all of that - and the number of deaths, when considered at 0.6 - 0.8% death rate, or so - with 500K+ dead -
adds up to something more than 50 million, or, roughly twice the reported cases.


The indication of "under-reported" cases is backed up from several different angles.


This is why - at the moment, still - not as many vaccines as you think have been delivered. Up to half of all vaccines administered so far may have been given to someone who already had it. (Half is a total guess - but once we passed 100M vaccines, the max is roughly half.) It means you the REAL dent in the numbers (falling, from the vaccine) is ahead of us, and sometime soon. But there was no reason yet to expect it behind us.
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Old 04-23-2021, 09:21 AM
 
Location: Durham NC
5,135 posts, read 3,747,404 times
Reputation: 3683
No one gets the flu any more. My adult son actually contracted Covid. Bad flu is how he described it. Tested half dozen times two false positives.
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