Quote:
Originally Posted by KevKitchen
This is going to be a smash in the mouth to the Democrats in Arizona. They can't possibly get the Indians to vote without being able to harvest ballots. Most Indians live on reservations and they don't have postal service or even a street address. That's why the Democrats pick up their ballots and take them to town. If the Democrats don't figure out a workaround, they are dead dead dead in Arizona.
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The Native communities have been voting 90 years and 2020 was the only year with these extraordinary circumstances. They will figure it out.
Everyone is freaking out about nothing as if voting has never been restricted before and Democrats never won elections before.
Here's a hint to you people - this is why Biden won Arizona and the country and his predecessors did not -
Arizona, vote of "college graduates"
2004: 26% of electorate, Bush +8. Overall vote Bush +10
2008: 29% of electorate, McCain +12. Overall vote McCain +9
[we don't have exit polls for Arizona 2012 unfortunately, but it was probably similar as 2008 since the overall result was Romney +9]
2016: 36% of electorate, Trump +10. Overall vote Trump +4
2020: 41% of electorate, Biden +7. Overall vote Biden +<1
That was the difference. It was not minorities. Arizona has been very consistent since 2008 with a 74-75% white, 25-26% non-white electorate, and Biden won EXACTLY the same share of non-whites in Arizona 2020 as Hillary Clinton did in 2016. The difference was the college graduates, both growing in share and getting less Republican.
College graduates are not handing over their ballots to random ballot harverstors and they generally are the kind of people who have their IDs up to date and know how to google what precinct they are in.
I'll say again - Democrats are wrong that suppression is why they don't win races. Democrats don't win races where people don't vote for Democrats and/or turnout of Democratic-leaning constituencies is garbage (ie: the same thing). There has always been some amount of voter suppression and Democrats won elections in those contexts. Republicans are wrong that the 2020 vote was fraudulent. They lost fair and square among the swing voters. If you look at the exit polls across the board in every state - Biden won because he did better than Hillary among
WHITE voters - Biden 41%, Hillary 37%; the Democrats have to get at least 39.5% of whites to win. Trump actually did slightly better among minorities than he did in 2016, you see that show up in the margins of urban districts with lots of minorities where Biden slightly underperformed Hillary. So that meant the over/under Biden needed among whites was probably 40-40.5%. He barely got what he needed.
If you want the specific demographic Trump got killed with - it was white men with college degrees. if you want to get more specific, college educated white men under age 50. In 2016 Trump won white men with college degrees by 14 points. In 2020, only by 3, while most other demographics performed similarly to 2016.
That was the difference. No one was "harvesting" the ballots of college educated white men.
This case is going to be irrelevant to which party wins or loses upcoming elections.