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The virus seems to be evolving very rapidly, but that is mostly because it has so many potential hosts, billions of unvaccinated people around the world each with millions of cells that the virus can colonize.
I think we can see more variants coming down the path (some probably already circulating but not yet recognized). We might even develop some here in the USA, since we have so many stalwart anti-vaxxers, we have millions of people who are ready and seemingly willing to be the incubators of new strains.
We have had a lot of variants develop in the US, they just never became dominant or wide spread.
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As of July 12, the CDC has reported nearly 5,500 cases in which a fully vaccinated person with Covid-19 was hospitalized or died. Seventy-five percent of those patients were over age 65.
But a breakthrough case didn't necessarily cause the hospitalization or death. Many breakthrough infections are asymptomatic and are found by chance or routine testing among patients who arrive at the hospital for other reasons, such as heart conditions or other medical problems.
In fact, in 1,456, or 28 percent, of the hospitalizations tracked by the CDC, the breakthrough cases were either asymptomatic or didn't play a role in why the patient was hospitalized. Take, for example, an older man who goes to the hospital for a heart attack. He tests positive for Covid-19 but without any symptoms. He still must be hospitalized to receive treatment for the heart attack.
That can also be true for the deaths that have occurred in people with breakthrough infections.
In Delaware, a spokesperson for the state's Division of Public Health said just because residents had died with a diagnosis of Covid-19 "does not mean Covid was the cause of death.
Viruses mutate in every human host infected because that’s what viruses do. Most variants are weak sisters and die off. A few emerge as stronger than the natural infection.
The Delta variant was first identified in India in December, 2020. It quickly spread throughout India, the second most populated and mostly unvaccinated country in the world.
The Delta variant was first detected in the US in March and quickly became the most dominate strain, especially amongst the unvaccinated population.
No vaccine is 100% effective.
The annual flu shot is reformulated every year based on projections of which influenza viruses will be dominate in the local population. Occasionally, it is reformulated mid flu season when projections of strain dominance differs from reality.
I do think covid will be like the flu. It mutates rapidly and there will always be human hosts.
The info on immune escape is very interesting. Worth reading.
The virus seems to be evolving very rapidly, but that is mostly because it has so many potential hosts, billions of unvaccinated people around the world each with millions of cells that the virus can colonize.
I think we can see more variants coming down the path (some probably already circulating but not yet recognized). We might even develop some here in the USA, since we have so many stalwart anti-vaxxers, we have millions of people who are ready and seemingly willing to be the incubators of new strains.
Did I miss something? I didn't read every post. But there is a lot of bad math here.
Since the first vaccines - let's just say January 1st - about 11,000,000 people (USA) got COVID.
Vaccine data says for every 1 VACCINATED person that gets covid, 19 UNvaccinated people will ALSO get covid. That's roughly the ratio. That's what was "promised." That's what we agree to as "good enough."
It means if 65000 vaccinated people got it - x 19 = 1.23 million people without a vaccine should ALSO have got it. But turns out - a whole lot more than that got sick.
Did I miss something? Why is it reported as a "Bad" thing? That seems to be the framing around here. It should be used as definitive data that the vaccine is highly effective.
Did I miss something? I didn't read every post. But there is a lot of bad math here.
Since the first vaccines - let's just say January 1st - about 11,000,000 people (USA) got COVID.
Vaccine data says for every 1 VACCINATED person that gets covid, 19 UNvaccinated people will ALSO get covid. That's roughly the ratio. That's what was "promised." That's what we agree to as "good enough."
It means if 65000 vaccinated people got it - x 19 = 1.23 million people without a vaccine should ALSO have got it. But turns out - a whole lot more than that got sick.
Did I miss something? Why is it reported as a "Bad" thing? That seems to be the framing around here. It should be used as definitive data that the vaccine is highly effective.
I think the point is, vaccinated can catch and spread covid. The idea that if we just get everyone to get the vaccine, covid will go away is not realistic which means people should stop bullying others about their vaccine decisions and accept reality.
Viruses mutate in every human host infected because that’s what viruses do. Most variants are weak sisters and die off. A few emerge as stronger than the natural infection.
The Delta variant was first identified in India in December, 2020. It quickly spread throughout India, the second most populated and mostly unvaccinated country in the world.
The Delta variant was first detected in the US in March and quickly became the most dominate strain, especially amongst the unvaccinated population.
No vaccine is 100% effective.
The annual flu shot is reformulated every year based on projections of which influenza viruses will be dominate in the local population. Occasionally, it is reformulated mid flu season when projections of strain dominance differs from reality.
Particularly coronaviruses.
It is entirely possible that much like the regular seasonal flu variants, COVID will just mutate so quickly that even if you didn't have a lot of willing hosts who wanted to maximize the opportunity for it to mutate it would just do so anyway. Exhibit A, the seasonal flu. While there's lots of people that choose to maximize the opportunity for the seasonal flu to mutate, the vaccines themselves are also just not effective enough that even if you didn't have a large population of anti-vaxxers and lazies (which I'll admit, I'm not great about getting the seasonal flu vaccine - some years I get it, some I don't), you'd just never eradicate the seasonal flu the way mumps, measles, or rubella have. Initially that's just what I expected with COVID based on effectiveness of flu vaccines. Even if everyone was quickly vaccinated, they're only about 40% effective on average. On a particularly good year it's 60%. Masks and social distancing are just a lot more effective than a ~40% effective vaccine that less than half the population bothers to get.
The potential game changer in that was the effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines. 95% effectiveness quite possibly would be enough to eradicate COVID before it had an opportunity to mutate whereas the 66% of J&J likely would not be. But that would depend on how quickly it could be rolled out and, of course, people not choosing to maximize the opportunity of COVID to mutate and just become another variant of seasonal flu we'll be dealing with forever. No guarantees that it could be pushed out fast enough of course. E.g., December 2019 despite China stonewalling everyone had enough information to realize COVID was not from eating infected bat meat. WHO dragging their feet is on WHO and no longer on China from then on. From December 2019 to perhaps around June 2021 is still a long time... a remarkably short time to develop a vaccine and roll it out to the point where everyone who wanted to be vaccinated had an opportunity to be vaccinated, but still a long time. Maybe without China stonewalling, WHO pontificating, and other leaders pretending it was fake news and if everyone got straight to work June 2021 might have been January. That's still quite a long time when you consider how quickly coronaviruses do mutate though. Delta was late 2020 and inoculating the entire US population is one thing while inoculating the entire population of Indian is quite another. They're only at around 6% today. There's certainly a lot of anti-vaxxers in India, but mostly they just don't have the vaccines or the logistics to get them into arms.
The total number of all Covid cases for all 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico reported to date since they started keeping track (18 months) is 624,849. So this means AT MINIMUM vaccine breakthrough cases for slightly over half the states during at last nine months represent over 10% of all cases. That seems pretty high for the alleged pandemic of the unvaccinated.
All these "mild cases" that still end up in the hospital confuse me. Maybe they aren't mild at all and when added to the actual mild cases that stay home the number would be truly alarming.
All these "mild cases" that still end up in the hospital confuse me. Maybe they aren't mild at all and when added to the actual mild cases that stay home the number would be truly alarming.
Partly that's just a place to house them while various mostly ineffective treatments are used and primarily the person just either fights off the infection on their own or doesn't to where they actually need to be in a hospital so they can be kept alive and give them more time to fight off the disease. One of the things that was realized fairly early on was that people won't quarantine. If you leave someone infected with COVID in the home setting, they'll generally infect the household who in turn will go out and infect other people until they start feeling sick. And then of course you just have the people who know they have COVID and just need to go to WalMart for some milk and cereal five times a day anyway. That was just one of the things that public health officials learned. People won't behave responsibly so to the extent there's hospital beds, its best to put them in hospital beds so they stop spreading COVID around.
Are we really going to keep referring to this inoculation as a "vaccination" then? It might be better not to, as the performance of these treatments could very likely taint the reputation of solid and well established vaccines in an unwarranted and unwanted manner.
No, they are vaccines and this variant is going like wildfire. It lowers the risk for hospitalization and death. 99% of Covid deaths are in unvaccinated patients.
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