Let’s look at world history and let’s be honest...

[Listener2307]

Originally Posted by arr430

First, the fertility rate is not a natutar predictor, it is a survey of voluntary human behavior, and it might have changed yesterday.

I mentioned Vegas and UAE as a response to a post saying entire nations could completely unpopulated. Were going into our fourth decade of trying everything imaginable to eliminate Iraq, but have barely made a dent.

Population of Iraq has nothing to do with world population.
If you think the world fertility rate went from 2.4 to 4.0 yesterday you would be alone in your beliefs. No one else on earth believes that. The fertility rate has been sinking for many, many years. The reasons for this are well known and have not changed since yesterday at noon - except perhaps making it even more advantageous for women to have fewer children.

[arr430]

Another point: Global custom has made it nearly impossible to move from one country to another. Only one person out of several hundred has any hope of changing citizenship during their lifetime. Population dynamics occurs within national boundaries. This will have a severe damping effect on any global shifts. With few exceptions, each country gets what it's got. The majority of UAE's population will eventually be sent back to Sri Lanka or Ethiopia. Forty countries still have rates of over 4.0. They aren't going to suddenly become Norwegians and stop having babies.

Most of the world's dramatic decline is due to one country -- China -- reducing their rate to Sweden's level. Which shows that a single directing authority can simply turn the "trend" around if it chooses to.