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Old 09-14-2021, 08:25 AM
 
20,419 posts, read 12,338,684 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo58 View Post
!) I think you mean comorbidities
2) You apparently don't know what that means

If I get infected with Covid-19, and the viral infection causes me to have pneumonia and organ failure, the death certificate will list pneumonia and organ failure as comorbidities. But make no mistake: it was Covid-19 that killed me. The 660,000 death figure is accurate, or probably low.
no you are wrong.

comorbidity isnt the pneumonia that gets you as a result of covid.

Comorbidity is the diabetes heart disease, cancer, immune disease, etc. you had before you got COVID.
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Old 09-14-2021, 08:36 AM
 
18,794 posts, read 8,420,430 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rjshae View Post
The case count is useful for tracking trends, and potential hospitalization rates. The latter determines at what point the medical facilities will be unable to handle the load, which drives a lot of the policy decisions. When your hospitals are full, the mortality rate will rise dramatically. Is it an over-reaction? Well I'm not callous enough to say yes just let them die.
I agree that this has generally been the over riding factor during the Pandemic. Our county is at a 2% death to case rate. But surely there are more cases out there that went unreported. But not hospitalizations and deaths. And those are the real gist of all this.

Covid 19 is 10X worse than Influenza. Influenza we can manage.
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Old 09-14-2021, 09:03 AM
 
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Oooook - this is waaaay old. "which is the figure being used in discussions. "


Which discussions? By who? Where?


My guess is you mean something you saw on your choice of newsite - and not anything from the CDC - where the rate hasn't been that high for 16 months.



The actual death rate is probably something like 0.4 - 0.6% - which takes into account the undiagnosed cases. That was a year ago ON THE CDC WEBSITE. It might be lower now. Note that this applies only to the USA. The rate will be higher - or lower - depending on the demographics of the area you are studying.


Again - please - this is A NON ISSUE - since NO ONE has said the rate is that high for more than a year - certainly not the CDC. If you have a CDC link showing their estimated official death rate of over 1% - please post it.
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Old 09-14-2021, 09:10 AM
 
Location: Southeast US
8,609 posts, read 2,295,733 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo58 View Post
No, I don't think its over reaction. regardless of what the mortality rate is, the fact remains that 660,000 (or 767,000 by your stats) Americans have died in a little over a year. That's 20x a typical flu season. It makes Covid-19 the #1 cause of death in the US.
Covid is not the #1 cause of death. Some on the left tried, and it probably was for a month in 2020, but not on any yearly basis.
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Old 09-14-2021, 09:22 AM
 
Location: Rural Wisconsin
19,649 posts, read 9,192,474 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo58 View Post
No, I don't think its over reaction. regardless of what the mortality rate is, the fact remains that 660,000 (or 767,000 by your stats) Americans have died in a little over a year. That's 20x a typical flu season. It makes Covid-19 the #1 cause of death in the US.
Deaths in the U.S., 2019, according to the CDC. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lea...s-of-death.htm

Heart disease: 659,041
Cancer: 599,601

Accidents (unintentional injuries): 173,040
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 156,979
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 150,005
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,499
Diabetes: 87,647
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 51,565
Influenza and pneumonia: 49,783
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,511

Deaths from COVID in the U.S. in 2020: 375,000, estimated
SOURCE: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm

Now, of course, as has been discussed ad nauseam, NO ONE knows the true number of "COVID deaths" that occurred in 2020. For 2020, the stated number of COVID deaths according to the CDC website was 375,000, which states very clearly that COVID was the THIRD leading cause of death in the U.S. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm and I think and hope the number will be lower for 2021. But, it doesn't take a math genius to figure out that it will almost certainly be lower than deaths caused by heart disease or deaths caused by cancer.

Last edited by katharsis; 09-14-2021 at 09:51 AM..
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Old 09-14-2021, 09:31 AM
 
Location: Southeast US
8,609 posts, read 2,295,733 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rjshae View Post
The case count is useful for tracking trends, and potential hospitalization rates. The latter determines at what point the medical facilities will be unable to handle the load, which drives a lot of the policy decisions. When your hospitals are full, the mortality rate will rise dramatically. Is it an over-reaction? Well I'm not callous enough to say yes just let them die.

I agree with your first part, but not the second.

In theory, the vast vast majority of hospitalizations will occur based on the # of positive tests. That is, the largest % of positive tests are because someone thought they were sick with Covid.

It would be an interesting, though meaningless at this time, exercise to find out how many people checked into the hospital for "other issues" and then they (hospital) discovered they had Covid - that Covid created or exacerbated the health issue.

However, to your second part, it is incorrect to say "full hospitals = dramatic increase in mortality".

We are claiming "the hospitals are full!" now, even though hospitalizations in January were more than 20% higher. There is no associated rise in deaths at a rate greater than the rise in hospitalizations during January nor now. Deaths are NOT rising at one rate when hospitals go from 70 to 80% full than they do from 80-95% full.

From Oct to Jan:

cases rose 6-fold
hospitalizations rose 5-fold

deaths rose 5-fold

By January, we already knew how to treat Covid patients. All that hospitalization and death was because our health officials continued to ignore the brunt on 65+ year olds before the vaccine.

Now, with Delta:

cases rose 13-fold
hospitalizations rose 4-fold

deaths rose 6-fold

Now, 6-fold is higher than 5-fold, so what happened? The unvaccinated old people were still dying pre-Delta (at a rate many multiples of < 50 crowd). And "more contagious Delta" caused them to catch Covid easier. And, we're seeing a lot more hospitalizations among the vaccinated old people.
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Old 09-14-2021, 09:35 AM
 
Location: Southeast US
8,609 posts, read 2,295,733 times
Reputation: 2114
Quote:
Originally Posted by gg View Post
I think it is crazy. They are even proposing a mask mandate indoors in my county even if you are vaccinated!!!

The left is truly going crazy over this, but I honestly think the leftists are happiest if they are being punished and punishing everyone else. They are happiest in their own misery. If you live around a city, it is just horrible!
if they haven't enacted an indoor mask mandate for all (including the vaxxed), consider yourself lucky.

where I am, with an indoor mask mandate for all

we've had more days with 0 deaths than any deaths since Feb 1
our cases are only 70% of the Jan peak
78% of 12+ have 1 dose, 74% are fully-vaxxed
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Old 09-14-2021, 09:41 AM
 
18,794 posts, read 8,420,430 times
Reputation: 4125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyebee Teepee View Post
I agree with your first part, but not the second.

In theory, the vast vast majority of hospitalizations will occur based on the # of positive tests. That is, the largest % of positive tests are because someone thought they were sick with Covid.

It would be an interesting, though meaningless at this time, exercise to find out how many people checked into the hospital for "other issues" and then they (hospital) discovered they had Covid - that Covid created or exacerbated the health issue.

However, to your second part, it is incorrect to say "full hospitals = dramatic increase in mortality".

We are claiming "the hospitals are full!" now, even though hospitalizations in January were more than 20% higher. There is no associated rise in deaths at a rate greater than the rise in hospitalizations during January nor now. Deaths are NOT rising at one rate when hospitals go from 70 to 80% full than they do from 80-95% full.

From Oct to Jan:

cases rose 6-fold
hospitalizations rose 5-fold

deaths rose 5-fold

By January, we already knew how to treat Covid patients. All that hospitalization and death was because our health officials continued to ignore the brunt on 65+ year olds before the vaccine.

Now, with Delta:

cases rose 13-fold
hospitalizations rose 4-fold

deaths rose 6-fold

Now, 6-fold is higher than 5-fold, so what happened? The unvaccinated old people were still dying pre-Delta (at a rate many multiples of < 50 crowd). And "more contagious Delta" caused them to catch Covid easier. And, we're seeing a lot more hospitalizations among the vaccinated old people.
"full hospitals = dramatic increase in mortality" is still pertinent, but nothing like when the Pandemic began. Before we had useful treatments for more serious cases, and before triage became more fluid. Now we have special centers in many areas that take the more serious cases, as transfers are much easier. When these special centers get backed up, downstream will start to deteriorate.
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Old 09-14-2021, 09:46 AM
 
Location: Southeast US
8,609 posts, read 2,295,733 times
Reputation: 2114
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo58 View Post
!) I think you mean comorbidities
2) You apparently don't know what that means

If I get infected with Covid-19, and the viral infection causes me to have pneumonia and organ failure, the death certificate will list pneumonia and organ failure as comorbidities. But make no mistake: it was Covid-19 that killed me. The 660,000 death figure is accurate, or probably low.
you are correct on the first, but wrong on the second.

Co-morbidities is not "other things that went wrong with your body because of Covid"

Co-morbidities is underlying conditions that you had already.

So someone with an organ transplant within the last year was at 1 risk, someone within 4-5 years was another risk - this is the co-morbidity. Someone whose normal organs failed in the hospital as part of their death ... not a co-morbidity.
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Old 09-14-2021, 09:55 AM
 
Location: Southeast US
8,609 posts, read 2,295,733 times
Reputation: 2114
Quote:
Originally Posted by Westerner92 View Post
A disease that has a mortality rate of 0.64% with modern medicine is actually pretty dangerous. For instance, measles has a mortality rate of 0.1-0.2%, but it was known to cause death rates of up to 25% when too many people within a community got it within too short a time. This is due to the societal strain of everyone being sick at once.
Let's assume you are completely correct in the assessment that 0.64% is pretty dangerous.

Why wouldn't that be the figure used, instead of a trumped-up 1.6%?

Even if they wanted to be cautious, and lump 50 year olds with 65+ - since 50 is when most co-morbidities begin, and thus equate their case fatality rates - why aren't we letting them know - "Hey, y'all are 10%!" and then the under 18 and 18-49 get their own rates?

IOW, why the misinformation from our health leaders? Are there more people panicked thinking merely contracting Covid is a horrible thing, or downplaying the effects of Covid?

Among the leaders - the health leaders, the political leaders - it seems clear to be the first. And that misinformation has been swallowed whole by a LOT of people (some portion of the 84% who are < 65) who are vaxxed and at almost 0 risk (less than 0.02% - 1 in 5000 or better) of even contracting Covid, much less requiring hsopitalization.
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