Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I've made no claim about vaccine effectiveness. I'm simply saying, if officials claim "99% of the deaths are in the unvaccinated," and then you find a sample of 70-some or 80-some deaths where it was not 99%, but more like 60%, that's a large enough sample to show the claim was bogus. It's a large enough sample to show the odds of the next death in that population being in an unvaccinated person are much, much less than 99%.
It's not "incorrect" to use a binomial distribution here. It's very simplistic, yes, but it's not incorrect. If you've failed 32 out of your last 82 tests, you can't say "generally, I pass 99% of my tests, that was just random variation." It's not possible for that to be random variation. And if you say "generally, I pass 75% of my tests" and that's actually true, then you might fail three of your next five, but I guarantee you that you will not fail 32 of your next 82.
All I'm saying is that in Massachusetts, nowhere near 99% of deaths are in the unvaccinated right now. I wouldn't harp on this if not for the people that are arguing "well, that 99% number might still be sort of accurate, this is just a small sample." It's not at all a small sample, statistically speaking. And it's every death in the state for the past week, so there's nothing unrepresentative about it. You know that. Most people here know that.
If someone is saying that 99% of deaths are in unvaccinated then I agree that is likely not a correct statement unless they are talking about some niche group or adding other caveats.
To the point that you are addressing the odds of observing 60% with n=80 or whatever making the odds of it being 99% almost impossible then you are correct.
To have a fair conversation about all of this we would have to VERY specificially outline what group we are discussing.
Lots of dishonesty around the topic, you could vaxx 100% of the people in a state and someone would start a thread about how ALL of the deaths in the state were people that were vaccinated!
Yet over 500 children have already died from Covid, as young as 2 months. Are you willing to accept personal responsibility for the death of a child? And how many children have to die before you are willing to admit that everyone,
every
one
needs to be vaccinated?
Oh please no one is buying what you are selling.
The science and facts are just not there.
But I am betting Pfizer is paying handsomely for your spamming message boards with the scare tactics.
Last edited by Arya Stark; 09-21-2021 at 02:11 PM..
For how dishonest and horrible the anti-vaxxers have been with their arguments it's a miracle I haven't gotten jabbed because of how insane they are.
All this stuff backfires but they don't seem to get that. Like I said people can do what they want. If it was the case that the entire world was vaccinated and only the anti vaxx people in America were keeping the virus spreading I might think differently. But what were are doing here has little effect long term. Even though Biden and Fauci try to claim otherwise.
More than 4,500 fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts tested positive for the coronavirus last week, a daily average of about 650 people as the rate of breakthrough infections ticked back up amid the delta variant.
The count of 4,568 breakthrough cases was up from 3,919 breakthrough infections in the previous week and 4,415 cases during the week before that.
Breakthrough cases in Massachusetts are making up about 35% of the state’s overall cases. People who are unvaccinated are at a higher risk for infection and a severe case.
My guess is that this is spiking because of the colder weather and everyone going back to school and work. Honestly I think it is the rarity now for people not to be at work.
What is it that you are not buying? That over 500 kids 18 and under have died from Covid? You can verify that pretty easily.
That the kids are at increased risk because of unvaxxed people? Again, easy for your to verify.
All I have is Science and Facts, but you choose to ignore them. Who's paying you?
And just for the record, I got the Moderna jabs as did my SO. My son got the J&J jab. Why would Pfizer pay me?
That 500 isn't quite small enough for me to care. If it were smaller, like the number of unarmed black men killed by cops, I would be enraged. I would be burning buildings down. That's how this works, right? The more incredibly rare something is, the more emotion we put into pretending to stop it?
Since Anti-Vaxers are opposed to science and facts, let's try another angle.
They say that God protects drunks and fools. But, apparently if you are too stupid to get the vaccine that has been provided for you free of charge then you are on your own. I would guess that he is pretty pissed off that you all spread COVID to little kids.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
