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you know why the current variant is labeled delta?
The alpha variant was identified in Sept 2020
The beta variant in May 2020
Gamma in November 2020
Delta in October 2020
The alpha variant caused the UK outbreak last fall
The beta variant caused the South African outbreak last December
The gamma caused the Brazilian outbreak last December
Delta caused the Indian outbreak last fall
I am not. Google "binomial distribution" and learn -- there are even calculators where you can model this problem.
If someone dies in Massachusetts right now and I offer you 3:1 odds that he was vaccinated, do you take it?
I'm not arguing vaccination, people go do what you want. At this point, I say open stuff up and let people deal with it.
That said, here is an opportunity for people to learn something about statistics.
In order for statistical modeling like that to work you need random variables.
They are not randomly vaccinating people, the people getting vaccinated are predominantly those that are more at risk.
For example, we put everyone into 2 groups, over 40 or with health issues in one and everyone else in the other. If we vaccinate the first group but not the second I don't think anyone would be that surprised to see more Covid deaths in the first group as the second group is unlikely to die from covid regardless. The second group, despite help from the vaccine is going to have 90 year olds in poor health, 60 year olds with lung cancer, 70 year olds with end stage COPD and that's people that are so vulnerable that vaccination is likely moot.
To do proper calculations you would need to see statistics from vaxxed\unvaxxed similar co-horts or at least adjust for it.
In short, this thread is using some statistical distributions and terms but is doing so incorrectly.
Again, I'm not some vax or mask mandate person, just helping discuss the stats.
P.S. If people are still confused here go find someone you trust that really knows stats, degree in it, works with it etc. and have them explain it to you in person.
Our government tried to cover it up when they made the data no longer transparent.
See, the US was NOT special in that breakthrough cases were "extremely rare".
Why did they do that ?
Why completely obliterate any trust left ?
And why still push for mRNA shots in everyone's arm ?
To make it look like Biden is doing something. As long as he can pretend that is only because of the unvaccinated that the virus is still infecting people, it let's him and his administration off the hook.
OK, then tell us what the logical, common sense position is on natural immunity for people who got COVID before, which the science is now showing is much better than vaccine immunity. Funny how pro-vaxxers whine about "following the science" but then desperately try ignoring the science when it doesn't follow their narrative and obsession about vaccine mandates and control. BTW we're vaccinated ourselves but wouldn't force this on anyone. Especially low-risk people or people who got COVID before and now, the science says, are immune. The whole rest of the world recognizes natural immunity as better than vaccine immunity, everywhere in Europe, South America, Asia, even China refuse vaccine mandates and says if you got COVID, you're immune. They consider risk for different populations-- if you're young and not obese, you're at low risk for COVID, and the vaccines fail to stop the spread anyway. After a few months, they don't even stop hospitalization-- most of Israel's hospital and ICU patients are now fully vaccinated, and Israel has among the worst rates in the world. It's only the United States, Canada and Australia that persist in being this stupid about it and requiring vaccination only, and the USA is stuck with this stupidity for now though the courts are starting to reverse it. Conservative Americans are leaving America in droves because of this, esp. those with kids, we've now become more authoritarian than even the CCP are.
Agree completely getting covid naturally provides better immunity
It's absurd the "follow the science" people won't acknowledge it.
With thag said the op posting his "gotcha" data which shows the vaccinated are still way less likely to be hospitalized than unvaccinated thinking it says the opposite is hilarious
With thag said the op posting his "gotcha" data which shows the vaccinated are still way less likely to be hospitalized than unvaccinated thinking it says the opposite is hilarious
How does these vaxxes help avoid hospitalization. How does a vax partially work. Is it like a union employee will only work part-time?.
To top off many vaxxed had the virus known or unknown so are the vaxxes or prior infections/natural immunity actually doing the work.
But since not testing for antibodies prior to vaxxing don't have a very important detail.
To keep things in perspective, in a week 82 deaths (from or with Covid-19, vaccinated or unvaccinated) in a State where on average, 1,127 people die weekly (all causes) according to the most recent available Massachusetts Government data - Link: 2017 MA Gov Death Data
And for this we were locked down, restricted, subjected to fear campaigns, small businesses lost or severely impacted and mandates that one would have to risk their livelihood if non-compliant.
We have 8 months of data since the vaccine became available, picking out one week in one state is obviously anti-vaxer material in the endless search to discredit the vaccine.
I am not. Google "binomial distribution" and learn -- there are even calculators where you can model this problem.
If someone dies in Massachusetts right now and I offer you 3:1 odds that he was vaccinated, do you take it?
I studied binomial distributions in grad school about a thousand years ago, and you know you are selectively picking a data set that matches your biases. My Shih Tzu can do that.
And I trust that you have figured out that, once everyone is vaxxed (even you), then any covid death will be a fully vaxxed person. Does that mean that we should not get vaxxed, even though the death rate amoung the vaxxed is waaaay lower than the unvaxxed? If the only tool we have is "only" 95% or 99% effective, does that mean to you that we shouldn't use it?
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