Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
They are not randomly vaccinating people, the people getting vaccinated are predominantly those that are more at risk.
This is just not true.
Over 75% of adults in the U.S. are now vaccinated. You think all of these people are predominantly at risk?
The riskiest may large swaths of the unvaccinated populations in the rural south -- who may be obese, diabetic, sedentary, etc. -- and elsewhere who are refusing the jab.
I'm not arguing vaccination, people go do what you want. At this point, I say open stuff up and let people deal with it.
That said, here is an opportunity for people to learn something about statistics.
In order for statistical modeling like that to work you need random variables.
They are not randomly vaccinating people, the people getting vaccinated are predominantly those that are more at risk.
For example, we put everyone into 2 groups, over 40 or with health issues in one and everyone else in the other. If we vaccinate the first group but not the second I don't think anyone would be that surprised to see more Covid deaths in the first group as the second group is unlikely to die from covid regardless. The second group, despite help from the vaccine is going to have 90 year olds in poor health, 60 year olds with lung cancer, 70 year olds with end stage COPD and that's people that are so vulnerable that vaccination is likely moot.
To do proper calculations you would need to see statistics from vaxxed\unvaxxed similar co-horts or at least adjust for it.
In short, this thread is using some statistical distributions and terms but is doing so incorrectly.
Again, I'm not some vax or mask mandate person, just helping discuss the stats.
P.S. If people are still confused here go find someone you trust that really knows stats, degree in it, works with it etc. and have them explain it to you in person.
This ^
Failing to do that was one of the reasons (among many) for the faulty interpretations of Israel's data.
Agree completely getting covid naturally provides better immunity
It's absurd the "follow the science" people won't acknowledge it.
With thag said the op posting his "gotcha" data which shows the vaccinated are still way less likely to be hospitalized than unvaccinated thinking it says the opposite is hilarious
our local "Covid expert doctor" who works at the largest university hospital system today just can't help himself.
"Population of 310MM*, and if just 10% don't get their vaccine, that's a lot of people to get sick and spread it".
I suppose his 310MM now ignores all under 5, but includes all over 5 - even though the vaccine hasn't been approved for the 5-12 yet.
More importantly, despite 9-ish months of 'like all viruses, contracting it provides some level of immunity, usually strong immunity except for the old and immune-compromised' .... he never mentioned immunity, and thus he is but a government actor pushing the ONE message - "If you ain't vaxxed, you don't count!"
I'm not arguing vaccination, people go do what you want. At this point, I say open stuff up and let people deal with it.
That said, here is an opportunity for people to learn something about statistics.
In order for statistical modeling like that to work you need random variables.
They are not randomly vaccinating people, the people getting vaccinated are predominantly those that are more at risk.
For example, we put everyone into 2 groups, over 40 or with health issues in one and everyone else in the other. If we vaccinate the first group but not the second I don't think anyone would be that surprised to see more Covid deaths in the first group as the second group is unlikely to die from covid regardless. The second group, despite help from the vaccine is going to have 90 year olds in poor health, 60 year olds with lung cancer, 70 year olds with end stage COPD and that's people that are so vulnerable that vaccination is likely moot.
To do proper calculations you would need to see statistics from vaxxed\unvaxxed similar co-horts or at least adjust for it.
In short, this thread is using some statistical distributions and terms but is doing so incorrectly.
Again, I'm not some vax or mask mandate person, just helping discuss the stats.
P.S. If people are still confused here go find someone you trust that really knows stats, degree in it, works with it etc. and have them explain it to you in person.
I've made no claim about vaccine effectiveness. I'm simply saying, if officials claim "99% of the deaths are in the unvaccinated," and then you find a sample of 70-some or 80-some deaths where it was not 99%, but more like 60%, that's a large enough sample to show the claim was bogus. It's a large enough sample to show the odds of the next death in that population being in an unvaccinated person are much, much less than 99%.
It's not "incorrect" to use a binomial distribution here. It's very simplistic, yes, but it's not incorrect. If you've failed 32 out of your last 82 tests, you can't say "generally, I pass 99% of my tests, that was just random variation." It's not possible for that to be random variation. And if you say "generally, I pass 75% of my tests" and that's actually true, then you might fail three of your next five, but I guarantee you that you will not fail 32 of your next 82.
All I'm saying is that in Massachusetts, nowhere near 99% of deaths are in the unvaccinated right now. I wouldn't harp on this if not for the people that are arguing "well, that 99% number might still be sort of accurate, this is just a small sample." It's not at all a small sample, statistically speaking. And it's every death in the state for the past week, so there's nothing unrepresentative about it. You know that. Most people here know that.
Last edited by tribecavsbrowns; 09-21-2021 at 09:32 AM..
A moment of thought will show you - percentage-wise, the number of deaths amongst the vaccinated will only rise.
Taken to extremes - if 100% of us were vaccinated - then ALL deaths are among vaccinated people - and so at that point, you'd be able to say:
ALL COVID deaths are caused by vaccinations.
It doesn't work like that. Ya see how silly that is? The is entire thread is based on that logic.
My personal interest in this is as follows:
I had Covid, so by any real accounting have better protection than the vaxxed. I don’t need, or appreciate, the governmental force. If the vax pushers would back the heck off, you would see a lot of us shut up and go on with our lives.
My kids may or may not have had Covid. To date, the very minor risk of vaccine-induced myocarditis is several times larger than the very minor risk of them being hospitalized due to Covid. I don’t need, or appreciate, the government, a pediatrician, or a school trying to force the vax on them. Nothing they can say or do will make me vaccinated my otherwise fully vaccinated children.
I get a very perverse sense of satisfaction when the vaccine is shown to be less effective than previously thought. I fully admit that’s wrong, but the vax pushers have pushed so hard, denigrated, berated, name-called and threatened for so long now. I can’t substitute teach (which I don’t need, but enjoyed.) And why? For what reason? I’m less likely to infect any of the kids than the vaccinated teachers are.
I love how the jab Nazis are pretending that they didn't smugly tell everyone, just a few months ago, that they were 'protected' now that they had the jab.
I well remember these arguments, because I linked for all of you, all 3 'vaccine' makers papers, in which every single one of them said 'may' not 'would'. And you all argued with me - you argued the very fact that the makers were telling you it did not necessarily protect you.
Now, here's this report showing 194 who were 'vaccinated', died.
The jab Nazis of a few months ago would have said that was not possible, but now they're saying, 'but, but, but....'
Here's another thing: Your chances of 'dying' without the 'vaccine' have not changed since the very start. Every age group has an above 94% chance of survival. That hasn't changed. If someone is fat, old, fat and old, or has other health problems already, they are the ones who need to use more caution in their lives. But everyone else who is healthy? Leave them the hell alone.
You know what does change? The efficacy of the so called 'vaccine'. If you got your jab back in January, February, or even March, you're not anymore 'protected' than an unvaccinated person. And soon, everyone who got one will be no better than those who didn't get the jab, because it doesn't last.
So all of your bullying, hateful statements, wishing death on people, laughing about people who have died, and cheering for passports, forced 'vaccinations' by employers, etc - you're all about to be in the exact same position as those who did not get the 'vaccination', with the exception of, we didn't fall for it.
The evidence of what the jab pushers were saying is right here on City Data. You can't delete it, the forum doesn't let you.
Anyone, and everyone, can see exactly what you all said, and compare that to the garbage you're saying now, without even an acknowledgment that you were WRONG!
The easy answer for this is that the VAST MAJORITY of adults in Massachusetts are already vaccinated. They have a very high vaccination rate.
In addition the number of vaccinated in people over 70 is about 90%.
The vast majority of the people that are going to die of Covid are elderly and infirm and the VAST majority of that population has been vaccinated.
But it is terrible that people thought they were home free with the vaccination and turns out they are not. I hope the medical authorities will stop pretending there aren't effective treatments.
The easy answer for this is that the VAST MAJORITY of adults in Massachusetts are already vaccinated. They have a very high vaccination rate.
In addition the number of vaccinated in people over 70 is about 90%.
The vast majority of the people that are going to die of Covid are elderly and infirm and the VAST majority of that population has been vaccinated.
But it is terrible that people thought they were home free with the vaccination and turns out they are not. I hope the medical authorities will stop pretending there aren't effective treatments.
Yet over 500 children have already died from Covid, as young as 2 months. Are you willing to accept personal responsibility for the death of a child? And how many children have to die before you are willing to admit that everyone,
every
one
needs to be vaccinated?
All I know is, if Trump were still POTUS and people were having these reactions to the “Trump vaccine”, the media and the left would be screaming from the rooftops about Trump was killing people.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
