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The Republican Legislature passed new maps in accordance with the deadline imposed by the State Supreme Court after the previous one was thrown out. The new maps have nine districts that Trump won and five in which Biden won. Five of the districts appear to be fairly competitive. Now it goes back to the State Supreme Court and the decision will likely be next week. The new maps would likely be 9 GOP and 5 Dem in most circumstances, though could possibly be 1n 11-3 GOP map in GOP wave years and a 8-6 Dem map in Dem wave years.
The previous map was thrown out in part due to how it split Greensboro, and the new map does the same. Not only does it split Greensboro, but pushes it out into rural areas, and pushes the three main cities from the Triad into three separate districts that push well outside the Triad region.
New Maps have been passed in the state of Rhode Island. The maps show little in the way of change to the previous ones. Under both the new and old lines, both districts were won by Biden and by similar margins (1 safe, 1 strong)
New Safe Trump
TX-38
New Lean Trump
MT-01
New Safe Biden
TX-37
New Strong Biden
OR-06
New Tilt Biden
CO-08
Safe Biden to Strong Biden
AZ-04 (renamed from AZ-09)
CA-09
CO-07
NM-1
NM-3
*TX-28 and TX-34 were two potentially marginal seats the Dems had that the GOP made safe. This was done in order to make TX-15 a bit weaker for the Dems and make a host of surrounding marginal GOP districts safer
How districts are categorized are based on 2020 Presidential #'s. To avoid having a mile long post I'm only listing the districts that are new, were eliminated or 2020 margins changed categories based on redistricting. I know the categories for the margins are somewhat subjective and how districts change categories can be over simplified (for example a district going from 5.1 to 9.8 will not show as changing, meanwhile a district from 5.1 to 4.8 will despite having less of a change), but I needed to use something as a starting point.
*Safe = districts won on Presidential level by 15 or more
*Strong= districts won on Presidential level by 10-14.99
*Lean = districts won on Presidential level between 5-9.99
*Tilt = districts won on Presidential level by less than 5 points
Maps in Missouri are due by end of day today in order to be in line with filing timelines. Remains to be seen if they will meet the deadline or it will need to be extended. Republicans in the legislature have been in disagreement in how much they should gerrymander.
The decision by the Supreme Court of North Carolina on the redrawn submitted late last week is expected by the end of the day tomorrow.
New maps have been passed in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. I will run over the numbers when I have a bit more time. The Judges rejected the Congressional map revisions from the North Carolina Legislature and enacted their own map (they did accept the map for the State House and State Senate that were also ordered to be re-drawn)
New Pennsylvania map is out. PA did lose a seat which came from the old PA-12 in central PA. This is the area of the state that saw the most population loss so it was generally expected that it would be the area most impacted. Some shifting around of seats in central PA happened as a result. The removed district was a safe GOP district.
Some changes on the margins in some of the other districts. PA-1 which is a GOP held that Biden won becomes slightly more Republican moving from lean Biden to tilt Biden column. PA-06 based in Chester County goes from Safe Biden to Strong Bien, but again just on the margins by a few tenths. PA-07 stayed in the tilt Biden column, but did become a bit more competitive. PA-17 Conor Lamb's old seat in suburban Pittsburgh moved from tilt to lean Biden, but still is quite competitive
Old map had 9 Biden seats (6 safe, 1 lean, 2 tilt) and 9 Trump seats (7 Safe, 2 Tilt). New map has 9 Biden seats (5 Safe, 1 Strong, 1 Lean, 2 Tilt) and 8 Trump sears (6 Safe, 2 Tilt)
North Carolina saw its first map rejected by the Courts a 2nd map drawn and that was rejected as well and a Special Master drew the map. North Carolina was also given a new seat due to reapportionment.
The new district is primarily in the southern Raleigh suburbs and exurbs. This district went to Biden narrowly and should be very competitive. The most drastic change to the map s in the Charlotte area. The Charlotte area now has two districts in the core metro. In the past you had several districts do a suburban/rural split into the Charlotte region including the old NC-09 which reached into Charlotte and pushed well out into rural territory. Dan Bishop is likely the most impacted by this as he lives n Charlotte and likely will not run in the new district and likely runs in the new NC-08
It is worth noting that it appears that the map drawn by special masters in NC might only be in place for 2022 and new maps could be required to be approved prior to the 2024 election.
Last edited by Smash255; 02-23-2022 at 10:15 PM..
Reason: Clarification on NC
*TX-28 and TX-34 were two potentially marginal seats the Dems had that the GOP made safe. This was done in order to make TX-15 a bit weaker for the Dems and make a host of surrounding marginal GOP districts safer
How districts are categorized are based on 2020 Presidential #'s. To avoid having a mile long post I'm only listing the districts that are new, were eliminated or 2020 margins changed categories based on redistricting. I know the categories for the margins are somewhat subjective and how districts change categories can be over simplified (for example a district going from 5.1 to 9.8 will not show as changing, meanwhile a district from 5.1 to 4.8 will despite having less of a change), but I needed to use something as a starting point.
*Safe = districts won on Presidential level by 15 or more
*Strong= districts won on Presidential level by 10-14.99
*Lean = districts won on Presidential level between 5-9.99
*Tilt = districts won on Presidential level by less than 5 points
Six states do not have to pass new Congressional districts as they only have one district. Of the 44 states required to pass new Congressional districts, 38 currently have approved maps. Some of these are pending litigation, but as of now are approved. Six states remain.
Florida
Louisiana
Missouri
New Hampshire
*Ohio
Wisconsin
* Ohio previously did pass maps, but they were overturned by the Ohio State Supreme Court for violating voter approved redistricting reform passed in 2018.
When your map gets overturned by the Courts, do the same thing again??
Rejected map
New Proposal
I've always though Representative Kaptur's seat was gerrymandered. I'm glad to see that has been "rectified". The proposed map provides opportunities for Democrats to control five or six seats, in a good year, which is more representation than the Democrats gave Republicans in Illinois, Maryland, and New York... One side can't be allowed to get away with gerrymandering and the other one gets slapped down every time. We don't live in a fair world, so Republicans must get aggressive to keep up with the Democrats...
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