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The 2nd and 3rd Districts are not "safe" for Democrats in the current environment. The 6th may be a "swing" district but it went +1 for Trump and carpetbagger Trone is about to get fired. Even Nate Silver recognizes that. But, we get it. You continually overstate the case for Democrats and understate the chances of Republicans. Can't wait for November when you're proven wrong as usual, just like you were in the VA and NJ governors' races.
Note, I am not really predicting anything on this thread. I'm comparing how districts are by the 2020 results for President in the district. Anything +15 for either Biden or Trump I put in the safe category
538 is looking at how the district compares to the average district. So for example an R+1 from the 2020 election, would be a district Biden won by roughly 3.5 points. Their figure however, isn't just based off 2020, and also takes into consideration other data over several elections including state ones.
In 2020 Biden won
New MD-2 by 19.8
New MD-3 by 25.6
New MD-6 by 9.8
Note, I am not really predicting anything on this thread. I'm comparing how districts are by the 2020 results for President in the district. Anything +15 for either Biden or Trump I put in the safe category
538 is looking at how the district compares to the average district. So for example an R+1 from the 2020 election, would be a district Biden won by roughly 3.5 points. Their figure however, isn't just based off 2020, and also takes into consideration other data over several elections including state ones.
In 2020 Biden won
New MD-2 by 19.8
New MD-3 by 25.6
New MD-6 by 9.8
I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers, but Nate Silver has the partisan breakdown as follows:
The second is a real possibility for the GOP in a wave year. That's Bob Ehrlich's old seat and includes Catonsville, Arbutus, and other more conservative parts of Baltimore County. I admit the 3rd (my old district) is a stretch, but it is not unwinnable. Sarbanes is a far left wing ideologue who is really out of step with all but the most crazed Marxists. Granted, there are plenty in the 3rd district, but if they don't turn out there could be a surprise there.
The second is a real possibility for the GOP in a wave year. That's Bob Ehrlich's old seat and includes Catonsville, Arbutus, and other more conservative parts of Baltimore County. I admit the 3rd (my old district) is a stretch, but it is not unwinnable. Sarbanes is a far left wing ideologue who is really out of step with all but the most crazed Marxists. Granted, there are plenty in the 3rd district, but if they don't turn out there could be a surprise there.
Trone is probably done in the 6th.
Nate Silver's #'s are based on how the district compares to the national margin across several election cycles. I'm using 2020 Presidential level data. The breakdown was plotted on DRA
Congressional maps in New York were initially thrown out for gerrymandering and a stay was issued allowing the maps to remain in place until an Appellate Court can hear the case, A hearing was held today and a decision is expected tomorrow.
In Kansas a challenge to the Congressional maps is expected to wrap up on Monday with a decision sometime next week
Another hearing in the challenge to the Congressional maps are to be held next week. For now the maps remain in place.
The challenge to the maps in Ohio remain ongoing, for now the maps remain in place.
The challenge to the Congressional maps in Kansas is expected to finish up this week.
There are lawsuits in other states, but these are the three most notable
There remains to be three states that do not currently have Congressional maps for the 2022 Elections.
In Missouri the GOP State House and the GOP State Senate continue discussions after passing different maps and not coming to an agreement on the maps.
In Florida after Governor DeSantis vetoed the maps passed by the GOP State Legislature as not being aggressive enough, the state Legislature has asked DeSantis for communication on how to proceed with the maps. This comes amid discussions of Primary challenges to those not backing DeSantis. DeSantis previously proposed a map that the Legislature did not take up fearing potential legal challenges that would result in a court drawn map that would be less favorable.
New Hampshire
Governor John Sununu vetoed the map passed by the GOP State legislature as being too much of a gerrymander and proposed his own map that was closer (though not completely) in line with the current map.
Interestingly, enough this is the first time I can remember a Governor vetoing a map passed by the same party legislature. I have seen disagreements and a bit of a back and forth, but do not recall any vetoes and this year we have two with Florida and New Hampshire. (though for very different reasons)
The New Hampshire Supreme Court announced that they would have a Special Master draw the districts if an agreement could not be reached by May. After the Courts statement it appears that the Legislature will take a proposal put forth by Governor Sununu. The Governor's proposal would make the 1st marginally more Republican and the 2nd marginally more Democratic. Not quite a minimum change map, but not nearly to the extent of the massive changed passed by the GOP legislature that Sununu rejected.
A New York Appellate Court sided with the ruling that overturned New York's Congressional map as an Unconstitutional Gerrymander. The map was previously overturned, and was stayed pending the Appellate Court ruling. The Court has given the Legislature until 4/30 to submit a new map. A further appeal and hearing on that could come next week. I will update my Presidential Results by district to remove NY, when I have a bit more time later this afternoon.
*TX-28 and TX-34 were two potentially marginal seats the Dems had that the GOP made safe. This was done in order to make TX-15 a bit weaker for the Dems and make a host of surrounding marginal GOP districts safer
How districts are categorized are based on 2020 Presidential #'s. To avoid having a mile long post I'm only listing the districts that are new, were eliminated or 2020 margins changed categories based on redistricting. I know the categories for the margins are somewhat subjective and how districts change categories can be over simplified (for example a district going from 5.1 to 9.8 will not show as changing, meanwhile a district from 5.1 to 4.8 will despite having less of a change), but I needed to use something as a starting point.
*Safe = districts won on Presidential level by 15 or more
*Strong= districts won on Presidential level by 10-14.99
*Lean = districts won on Presidential level between 5-9.99
*Tilt = districts won on Presidential level by less than 5 points
Florida has passed New Congressional maps. I will provide a further breakdown likely by tomorrow but this goes from 15 Trump districts and 12 Biden districts to 20 Trump districts and 8 Biden districts. The map will certainly be challenged especially due to Florida's 2010 referendum on redistricting.
Florida's old 5th district which was a heavily Democratic African American district stretching from Jacksonville to Tallahassee loses the stretch to Tallahassee, however instead of being a core Jacksonville which would have kept in fairly Democratic, it pushes up into more rural areas further away from the core Jacksonville metro. This is renamed the 4th and becomes Republican.
The 7th district was a Democratic leaning district in suburban Orlando, gets pushed further away from the Orlando metro and becomes more GOP
The 13th which was a slightly Dem leaning swing district becomes more Republican as an area of the 14th jumps over Tampa Bay to take some Democratic areas out of the 13th. This could be something to keep an eye in the courts as the map passed in 2010 was overturned in 2015 for this reason.
The new district is a rural/ suburban district stretching SW of Orlando and is quite Republican. The GOP also made some of their districts in southern Florida a bit more Republican.
Overall the map based on the old lines went 12 for Biden (7 Safe, 1 Strong, 2 Lean, 2 Tilt) and 15 for Trump (10 Safe, 1 Strong, 4 Lean). The new map has 8 Biden seats (7 safe, 1 strong ) 20 for Trump (9 Safe, 3 Strong, 6 Lean, 2 Tilt) Most of the lean districts for Trump were on the edge of strong in the high double digits. DeSantis's map packs the Democrats in as few districts as possible (8 of 28 seats) in a state which was just won by 3 points by Trump.
New Safe Trump
FL-18
TX-38
New Lean Trump
MT-01
New Safe Biden
TX-37
New Strong Biden
OR-06
New Tilt Biden
CO-08
NC-13
Safe Biden to Strong Biden
AZ-04 (renamed from AZ-09)
CA-09
CO-07
NC-06
NM-1
NM-3
Safe Biden to Lean Biden
MD-06
NV-01
Safe Biden to Tilt Trump
OH-09
Safe Biden to Strong Trump
CA-05
FL-04 (old FL-05)
TN-05
Safe Trump to Strong Trump
AZ-08
FL-02
FL-11
MD-01
NE-01
Safe Trump to Lean Trump
OH-07
Eliminated Safe Biden
CA-40
Eliminated Tilt Biden
OH-13
Eliminated Strong Trump
MI-02
Eliminated Safe Trump
IL-16
PA-12
WV-03
*TX-24 is a GOP held seat Biden won
*TX-28 and TX-34 were two potentially marginal seats the Dems had that the GOP made safe. This was done in order to make TX-15 a bit weaker for the Dems and make a host of surrounding marginal GOP districts safer
How districts are categorized are based on 2020 Presidential #'s. To avoid having a mile long post I'm only listing the districts that are new, were eliminated or 2020 margins changed categories based on redistricting. I know the categories for the margins are somewhat subjective and how districts change categories can be over simplified (for example a district going from 5.1 to 9.8 will not show as changing, meanwhile a district from 5.1 to 4.8 will despite having less of a change), but I needed to use something as a starting point.
*Safe = districts won on Presidential level by 15 or more
*Strong= districts won on Presidential level by 10-14.99
*Lean = districts won on Presidential level between 5-9.99
*Tilt = districts won on Presidential level by less than 5 points
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