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I'm goin to take a look at redistricting impacts in each state. As partisan voting has become more & more the Presidential #'s in each district lay a significant role in how a district will vote on the Congressional level. Only 16 districts voted for a different party for Congress tan it did for President. The Republicans won nine districts for Congress that Biden won, and the Democrats won seven districts for Congress that Republicans won
Maine
Maine had slight changes in the districts due to population reasons as ME-1 needed to shed some population to ME-2. ME-1 remains a safe Democratic seat going from Biden 23.1 to Biden 22.8. ME-2 remains a lean Republican seat, though Trump's margin did drop slightly from 7.5-6.1. This is one of the seats won by Trump held by a Democrat. Old and new districts both Biden and Trump won 1.
Nebraska
Nebraska's 2nd district had to shed some population due to growth in Douglas County. The 2nd is one of the districts Biden won that is held by a Republican. There were rumors that the Republicans could decide to split the Omaha based Douglas County in order to make it more Republican, however they decided to pass on that as it could have potentially made NE-1 a bit more vulnerable. Overall they decided on a more subtle change, swiping out some Republican leaning but dem trending areas of Sarpy County with heaver Republican and rural Saunders County. NE-2 would have moved a few points more Dem without the swap out instead NE-2 goes from Biden 6.6 to Biden 6.3, NE-1 goes from Trump +15 to Trump +11.1. Old districts Trump won 2, Biden won 1. New districts Trump won 2, Biden won 1.
Oregon
Oregon's redistricting was controlled by Democrats. Oregon was due to gain a district due to population growth and the new district was going to be in metro Portland. As a result the new district was going to be a Democratic leaning district and it was as the new OR-6 Biden won by 13.1. The Democrats did take the opportunity to make a competitive seat safer for the Democrats. Oregon's 4th district which Biden won by 4 points became Biden + 12.8. Old districts Biden won 4, Trump won 1, new districts Biden won 5, Trump won 1.
Indiana
The 5th district primarily in the suburbs of Indianapolis was the main GOP target here as the GOP focused on making it safer. The district had been trending pretty heavily Democratic as it went from Romney +16.8 in 2012 to Trump +2.2 in 2020. The Republicans shifted a bit away from the core Indy suburbs and pushed it to incorporate more rural areas and the Trump +2.2 district became Trump +15.9. This was accomplished by making the already Dem heavy IN-7 more Democratic and some surrounding safe GOP districts a little less Republican, but still safe. Old districts Trump won 7 Biden 2, new districts Trump won 7, Biden 2.
Colorado
Colorado added a district as a result of reapportionment. The district is mostly located in the suburbs north of Denver. The district is a dem leaning swing district in which Biden won by 4.6. The other districts really did not see that big of a change in its partisan makeup. Old districts Biden won 4, Trump 3. New districts Biden won 5, Trump 3.
Idaho
Very little change in these districts, both were safe for the GOP prior to redistricting and both are safe now. Trump won both under new and old lines
Montana
Montana gained a seat as a result if reapportionment The old at large seat was safe Republican. The new seats are lean and safe Republican as the heavier populated western portion of the state is the more Democratic portions. The 1st district Trump won by 6.9 the 2nd he won by 26,8. Old lines Trump won the one district, new lines he won both
West Virginia
West Virginia lost a seat as a result of reapportionment. All three were safe GOP and won by Trump, the GOP loses a seat as a result. Both seats now are safe GOP and won by Trump
Utah
Republicans did a four way split of the Democratic leaning Salt Lake metro, creating four safe districts as a result. They picked up UT-4 in 2020 and transformed it from a Trump +9.1 seat to a seat Trump won by 25.6. The least GOP seat is now Trump 16.7, under the old lines they had two seats less GOP than that. All four were Trump seats before and after redistricting
Nevada
The Democrats held 3 of the 4 seats, and 3 of the 4 were won by Biden. However, they changed the maps a bit in the Las Vegas metro by making their safe seat less Democratic in order to make two of the marginal seats they held a bit more Dem leaning. NV-3 went from Biden 02 to Biden +6.6, NV-4 went from Biden +3.9 to Biden Biden +8.4
All four of Arkansas districts were Republican. The new lines keep it that way. The new lines did make AR-02 which was the least GOP of the four seats slightly more Republican going from Trump 8.8 to Trump 13.1. All four districts went to Trump under old and new lines
Iowa
Little change in Iowa's lines. One safe GOP district, and the rest are marginal to very slight GOP leaning. Trump on IA-3 by 0.1 in 2020 and it remains a very tight district of 0.3
Alabama
Alabama had seven safe districts. Six safe GOP districts and one safe Democratic district. The new map keeps that the same. Trump won 6 of the 7 districts under both maps.
Texas
Republicans in Texas did make one Democratic held district a bit more Republican in turning TX-15 from Biden 1.9 to Trump 2.9, however the main focus was keeping a bunch of marginal GOP districts Republican. The GOP held eight seats in which Trump won by less than 3 points (TX-2, TX-3, TX-6, TX-10,TX-21, TX-22, TX-23 and TX-31) and one seat which Biden won by 6.5 (TX-24). The bulk of these were trending HARD away from the GOP and all of these seats were made safer and all, but TX-23 (which went from Trump 1.8 to Trump 7.2) were turned into districts in which Trump won by double digits. This was primarily done by making a couple Dem seats safer and stretching out many of these suburban districts into more rural areas. Two new seats were made, one heavily GOP and one uber safe Dem in the Austin area (which also helped the surrounding GOP seats) Trump won 22 and Biden 14 under the old lines, Trump won 25 and Biden 13 under the new lines. The GOP also made the seats they do hold much safer
North Carolina
North Carolina added a seat. This seat was drawn as a GOP seat for State House Leader Tim Moore, but Madison Cawthorn decided to switch districts and run in the new NC-13 instead. The GOP targeted NC-01 by turning this Dem leaning district into a marginal one (now named NC-02) which went from Biden 8.6 to 2.3. It also tore apart a Greensboro based district the old NC-06 and created a GOP opportunity in an open NC-04. Under the old lines Trump won 8 seats and Biden 5, under the new seats Trump won 10 seats and Biden 4.
Of the states that have passed the maps so far (including the states with only one district) it looks like the maps have changed from Trump winning 73 and Biden winning 37 to Trump winning 78 and Biden winning 37. This does not take into consideration the marginal seats on each side that stayed with that side but changed. Also, appears that Ohio passed a GOP friendly map today, this will be updated once those #'s are ran.
Oklahoma City got split into 3 of the rural congressional districts ensuring that no congressional district Oklahoma will have any closely contested elections, and that Republicans will always win for the foreseeable future. Otherwise, no significant changes.
Ohio
Ohio was a bit of an interesting one. The state did pass redistricting reform in a referendum which created a Commission and put in some new provisions on how the lines were drawn. However, if the maps were not passed by a certain time it would go back to the Legislature. Ohio was already one of the most gerrymandered states in the country. Under the current lines, Obama only won 4 of the 16 districts in 2012 despite winning the state. Biden won the same four districts. Ohio was also set to lose a seat, the primary seat torn apart due to the loss of the seat was Tim Ryan's current seat. Ryan is not running for re-election and seeking the Democratic nomination for Senate in 2022. In order to remove that seat it had to make the current OH-16 (new OH-13) more Democratic. This seat is held by current retiring Republican Anthony Gonzalez and actually changed from a Trump +14.1 all the way to a Biden + 0.7 seat.
However, the GOP obviously wasn't going to move a fairly safe GOP seat to a swing seat without gaining something in return. Making this seat a swing district allowed the GOP to make other changes in other areas to go after Mary Kaptur's previously safe seat in OH-09. Her seat goes from Biden +18.9 to Trump +4.5. Steve Chabot's seat in OH-01 also became slightly weaker for the GOP. This seat went from Trump +3.2 to Biden +1.7, although this was already a gerrymandered seat to begin with in the Cincy area and remains so by ripping of Hamilton County which Biden won by 15.8 into multiple districts. Ohio had 12 districts that went for Trump in 2020 under the old lines and Biden won four, under the new lines Trump won 11 and Biden won four. However, two of the seats Biden won under the new lines are very marginal, one safe Dem seat was turned into a GOP leaning one and this could be a 13-2 GOP map. From a technical standpoint an argument could be made that both OH-13 and OH-16 were completely shredded and a new marginal district took its place. In addition due to the way the map in Ohio was passed, it will only be in effect for two election cycles, so new maps will be drawn following the 2024 elections.
Trump won 85 to Biden's 41 districts under the old lines in the states that completed their maps, it is Trump 89 to Biden 42 under the new lines in those states.
Will post more in depth as I come across some numbers, but Oklahoma has 5 uber safe districts after Oklahoma City was carved up.
The 5th district which covered much of the OKC area previously was safe Republican, but has trended Democratic recently and became more of a lean GOP seat. It went from Romney +18.4 to Trump +5.3, and was a seat the Democrats picked off in 2018. The GOP won it back last year, but it was going to remain a potentially vulnerable seat. A core OKC district would have been somewhere between lean GOP to swing, though has since been carved up and pulling in more GOP rural areas.
Added from the last post, OK-5 went from Trump +5.3 to Trump +18.5 as it took in more rural areas outside the OKC metro
Massachusetts
Massachusetts remains to be all Democratic districts. This is not a surprise due to how Democratic the state is and it is even across the state. Biden won every county in Massachusetts by double digits. Biden won all congressional districts by double digits as well, with the 9th being the closest in both the old and new maps at right around 18 points
Illinois
Illinois was poised to lose a district and Adam Kinzinger and Dan Lahood were both pushed into the same safe GOP district, Kinzinger's district was the one which basically got removed. It wasn't that much a surprise that a GOP district got removed, and that was likely even under a fair map due to population distribution. With that said, this map was absolutely a Democratic gerrymander. The Democrats made a few seats stronger and ripped another GOP one up.
Lauren Underwood in IL-14 went from a Biden +2.4 to Biden +11.5 in this district based in suburban and exurban Chicago. Even the old district has been trending Democratic, Romney won it by 10 in 2012, but this became much safer.. Cheri Bustos's open seat in IL-17 went from Trump +1.6 to Biden +7.8, as the Democrats made this potentially vulnerable swing seat into a Dem leaning one. IL-13 was turned from a Trump 3.5 to Biden 11.2. This was Rodney Davis's seat, though he appears to be running in the more Republican IL-15. Two Democrats and two Republicans were also pushed into the same districts. Under the old lines Biden won 13 of the 18 districts, under the new ones he won 14 of 17
Of the states with finalized maps Trump won 95 and Biden 63, under the new maps Trump won 97 and Biden 64. In 2020 with all districts it was Biden 224, Trump 211. States with one Congressional District (Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming) are included in these totals.
Last edited by Smash255; 11-24-2021 at 10:49 PM..
Reason: math correction
Strong 2020 Trump Districts now outnumber Strong Biden ones by ten seats more than in 2020.
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