Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound
I don't know if it matters but South Africa of course had few covid cases before this recent explosion. Israel is also very quiet. Whereas The US and Europe have high case numbers.
Does it make any difference if an area has lots of cases or few new when a new variant enters that area. Meaning do we know what the ideal conditions are for a new variant or does it matter at all? I would imagine now its delta raging in the US and Europe and Omicron will have to beat out Delta.
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Of course, Israel has had three distinct waves of Covid, one after a high percentage of the population had the initial two shots:
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/israel/
Now, they have a high percentage of boosters, which, at least for the time being, seems to have brought the pandemic under good control.
I don't pretend to understand South Africa. They have had three distinct spikes:
https://www.worldometers.info/corona.../south-africa/
Their highest ever number of new infections was July 3, 2021, with 26,600 or so cases. Almost 90,000 deaths to date, out of a population of 60 million.
What I do know is that their numbers are rising rapidly, due to the widespread Omicron. However, I am heartened by the fact that there is not, so far as I know, any deaths attributable to Omicron. From what I have seen, many of those that get this variant have mild symptoms and recover quickly.
I have noted, even at the beginning of this pandemic, that viruses mutate. They can mutate 'up' into a more deadly form, which happened during the Spanish Flu pandemic. Then, like is suspected in the Spanish flu, it mutated 'down': to become more transmissible, but less deadly.
Years ago I read an excellent book called "The Hot Zone" by Richard Preston, about the Ebola virus.
The first part of the book was an examination into the nature of viruses and flues. It was noted that said organisms are like all living things: they live to reproduce.
As such, we have never had a virus or like disease that causes 100 percent mortality. Why? Well, if the virus kills every host, it cannot reproduce and survive. Even the Marburg virus, perhaps the most deadly virus known, kills, on average, 50 percent (more in isolated localities).
The Spanish flu mutated so that it could spread more, but became less deadly. After some more mutations, it became benign. Indeed, it still exists in some form today. It obeyed the law of nature: reproduce and survive.
So, I was not overly concerned over the breathtaking news that the Covid 19 virus had undergone a large number of mutations (30 to 50, depending on your source). It may well turn out that Omicron underwent such rapid mutation so that it could more easily spread, yet not kill (requiring hospitalization is unknown).
I have read that, over recorded history, the average time for a pandemic is 12 to 18 months. Note that such is the 'average'. Some last for a shorter period (Asian Flu, Hong Kong Flu and Swine Flu, to cite those during my lifetime). Note that polio was not officially considered a 'pandemic'. You had outbreaks during the decades, flow and ebb, until the vaccine was developed.
One big difference between our pandemic and the Spanish flu: in 1918, they had no treatment at all. No vaccine, no medications, no nothing. As such, some 50 million people died worldwide (and 750,000 in the United States, out of 100 million).
Here, we do have a treatment, a vaccine. A vaccine (or vaccines) with 7.8 billion doses given, with 3.3 billion being considered 'fully vaccinated'.
Yet, out of a population of close to 8 billion, that leaves a lot of people unprotected.
I said back in March 2020: the Covid coronavirus is the hunter, we are the prey. We are not the top of the food chain.
Odd, to me, that so many in "First World" countries, chose to remain the prey.
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