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Old 02-23-2022, 04:38 PM
 
Location: NC
11,208 posts, read 8,264,953 times
Reputation: 12412

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taggerung View Post
I swear you people are addicted to drama and sensationalism. China will not touch Taiwan.
Probably true, but China has been working on it for decades, and if they do, it will not be because of who is, or is not POTUS.

I'm surprised you let OP get away with "Biden Bungled Ukraine". Crikey, these guys are fed their biased media and believe every word of it. Ukraine is very complicated, with many factors. Biden is doing pretty well, and while this one person is trying to pin the outcome on Biden, most people, left and right, in America think we need to let Europe fight the battle. Regardless, nobody's bungled Ukraine yet. The outcome is TBD. The OP is so hell-bent on America failing that his wish has been made public before anything even happened.
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Old 02-23-2022, 05:07 PM
 
23,844 posts, read 14,968,500 times
Reputation: 12858
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roderic View Post
No, there is not. Militarily speaking, the US is supreme. And I do not use that word lightly. Remove the nuclear options and no one can take on US, not even China.
Looks to me like the Taliban did.
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Old 02-23-2022, 05:15 PM
 
1,826 posts, read 625,478 times
Reputation: 914
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocko20 View Post
This is real life not the movies, you can’t “remove the nuclear option” from China or Russia.

The entire point of nuclear weapons is to even the playing field, which is why North Korea hasn’t been turned into a parking lot yet.
If there is a shooting fight between US and China, it will be in the South China Sea, not mainland China. And in that fight, PLAN ships will be reef-ed. Will China launch nuclear missiles towards CONUS when Xi starts to see his ships sinking? The US Navy will NOT hold back out of fear that China will go nuclear. The order for the US Navy is to win on the waters and if it take two or more carriers, it will be done. If China go nuclear, that will be the end of China because even in that arena, we outgun China, not counting some allies who are also nuclear weapons states.
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Old 02-23-2022, 05:16 PM
 
1,826 posts, read 625,478 times
Reputation: 914
Quote:
Originally Posted by crone View Post
Looks to me like the Taliban did.
We were merciful towards the Taliban. And they know it.
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Old 02-23-2022, 05:18 PM
 
1,826 posts, read 667,719 times
Reputation: 665
If Joe Biden is pro-China and serves in China's interest as it's told here repeatedly, and Republicans (mainly Trump led ones) are the ones hard on China, then wouldn't China wait until after Biden's presidency when a Republican is in control for China to take Taiwan?

Then it will be a Republican administration problem, but the conservatives will find a way to blame Biden, after Biden is gone, for China invading Taiwan. Or maybe better, blame Obama for it.
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Old 02-23-2022, 05:36 PM
 
1,826 posts, read 625,478 times
Reputation: 914
Quote:
Originally Posted by s002wjh View Post
there wont be surpise sure, it doesn't mean they can't invade taiwan, especially if US doesn't get involved. both air/sea superiority is in china's favor. China is weight in cost/reward ratio, as long as taiwan doesn't formally declare independence, i dont think china will invade taiwan anytime soon.
The US do not have to get militarily involved on Taiwan. The policy will be to make Taiwan a porcupine, meaning even if the PLA managed to land on the island, the occupation of Taiwan will be painful and bloody for China.

The risk of failure for the invasion fleet is higher than most people think. While there are generally predictive local weather, the strait have been known to turn sour within 24 hrs. Similarly to the US in Desert Storm, the PLA must launch the invasion fleet the day that its weathermen PERCEIVE the strait weather to be favorable. The PLAAF must continue its aerial attacks on Taiwan to provide cover for the fleet while in strait transit, the most vulnerable time. All Taiwanese defense have to do is damage 1/4 of the invasion fleet, either in transit or on the beaches, to render the invasion a failure. Technology analysts assessed China and Taiwan to be technological peers, so even if the PLA outnumbered Taiwanese defense, it is likely that the invasion fleet will suffer 1/3 casualties. PLA troops would make the landing, but given 1/4 of them was killed, the survivors will not have enough reserves to withstand the inevitable guerrilla warfare in the urban setting. The conquest of Taiwan will be deemed a failure.

But if the weather turned sour, the PLAN will have to risk the transit and possibly casualties while in transit, which would fail the invasion before landing, or delay the launch which will give Taiwanese defense respite to regroup and rearm.

So in the final analysis, if peaceful reunification fail, China must either concede to Taiwanese independence even in declaration, or commit to the military option.
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Old 02-23-2022, 05:53 PM
 
20,421 posts, read 12,341,203 times
Reputation: 10207
Quote:
Originally Posted by MechAndy View Post
Why wouldn’t they go after Taiwan?
China has an intellectual advantage over this administration.

Biden seems weak.
Name one bad group that respects the weak?
Seems? you mean like how Mt. Everest seems tall?
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Old 02-23-2022, 06:14 PM
 
170 posts, read 59,855 times
Reputation: 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roderic View Post
The US do not have to get militarily involved on Taiwan. The policy will be to make Taiwan a porcupine, meaning even if the PLA managed to land on the island, the occupation of Taiwan will be painful and bloody for China.

The risk of failure for the invasion fleet is higher than most people think. While there are generally predictive local weather, the strait have been known to turn sour within 24 hrs. Similarly to the US in Desert Storm, the PLA must launch the invasion fleet the day that its weathermen PERCEIVE the strait weather to be favorable. The PLAAF must continue its aerial attacks on Taiwan to provide cover for the fleet while in strait transit, the most vulnerable time. All Taiwanese defense have to do is damage 1/4 of the invasion fleet, either in transit or on the beaches, to render the invasion a failure. Technology analysts assessed China and Taiwan to be technological peers, so even if the PLA outnumbered Taiwanese defense, it is likely that the invasion fleet will suffer 1/3 casualties. PLA troops would make the landing, but given 1/4 of them was killed, the survivors will not have enough reserves to withstand the inevitable guerrilla warfare in the urban setting. The conquest of Taiwan will be deemed a failure.

But if the weather turned sour, the PLAN will have to risk the transit and possibly casualties while in transit, which would fail the invasion before landing, or delay the launch which will give Taiwanese defense respite to regroup and rearm.

So in the final analysis, if peaceful reunification fail, China must either concede to Taiwanese independence even in declaration, or commit to the military option.
you really overestimate taiwan ability and morale to protect it. taiwan military currently have moral issue.
taiwan is only 80mi from mainland, china have plenty ships to offload soldier especially if they control the air and sea. modern warfare is all about air/sea dominance, if china has that its game over for taiwan. and we not even get into the thousands SRBM + 400km MLRS etc etc.
also taiwan military is severally infiltrate by chinese intel. some the retire taiwaness general go to mainland all the time, some even retire there. so addition to low morale, end of conscription, lack of manpower + china infiltration, taiwan gonna have hard time to defend itself without external help.
this was few years ago, now its even worst

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeXuEQdRtZ8

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN1N20U3
https://www.quora.com/WSJ-reports-th...wan-from-China
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Old 02-23-2022, 07:32 PM
 
1,826 posts, read 625,478 times
Reputation: 914
Quote:
Originally Posted by s002wjh View Post
you really overestimate taiwan ability and morale to protect it. taiwan military currently have moral issue.
taiwan is only 80mi from mainland, china have plenty ships to offload soldier especially if they control the air and sea. modern warfare is all about air/sea dominance, if china has that its game over for taiwan. and we not even get into the thousands SRBM + 400km MLRS etc etc.
also taiwan military is severally infiltrate by chinese intel. some the retire taiwaness general go to mainland all the time, some even retire there. so addition to low morale, end of conscription, lack of manpower + china infiltration, taiwan gonna have hard time to defend itself without external help.
this was few years ago, now its even worst
And I can say that YOU overestimate the PLA's ability to conquer Taiwan without incurring serious damages. Taiwan know that the PLA have numerical superiority, but both sides also know there are serious obstacles in landing on the island. In your comment, there is nothing about the transiting the strait. I wonder why.

Morale problems in the Taiwanese military?

Did you know that PLA generals/admirals sold ranks and assignments? Do you have any idea on how detrimental that is throughout the ranks? Have you done any research on how corrupt is the PLA's leadership, especially how in one anti-corruption drive, the Party police had to literally weigh, not count, cash from one general's home? They found antique arts, bonds, and assorted luxury items. Not only that, the PLA is filled with single childs, meaning soldiers who die in combat will leave their elderly parents with no one to care in their last yrs. What do you think that will do to the soldiers' morale? But of all the terrible things that the PLA done to itself, the worst is the selling of ranks and assignments because NOW the PLA have officers and senior NCOs who are incompetent in critical areas.

Modern warfare is all about air/sea dominance? I am USAF veteran, F-111 Cold War then F-16 Desert Storm. I think I may know a little bit about that.
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Old 02-23-2022, 08:07 PM
 
170 posts, read 59,855 times
Reputation: 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roderic View Post
And I can say that YOU overestimate the PLA's ability to conquer Taiwan without incurring serious damages. Taiwan know that the PLA have numerical superiority, but both sides also know there are serious obstacles in landing on the island. In your comment, there is nothing about the transiting the strait. I wonder why.

Morale problems in the Taiwanese military?

Did you know that PLA generals/admirals sold ranks and assignments? Do you have any idea on how detrimental that is throughout the ranks? Have you done any research on how corrupt is the PLA's leadership, especially how in one anti-corruption drive, the Party police had to literally weigh, not count, cash from one general's home? They found antique arts, bonds, and assorted luxury items. Not only that, the PLA is filled with single childs, meaning soldiers who die in combat will leave their elderly parents with no one to care in their last yrs. What do you think that will do to the soldiers' morale? But of all the terrible things that the PLA done to itself, the worst is the selling of ranks and assignments because NOW the PLA have officers and senior NCOs who are incompetent in critical areas.

Modern warfare is all about air/sea dominance? I am USAF veteran, F-111 Cold War then F-16 Desert Storm. I think I may know a little bit about that.
lol sure, even taiwaness themself say they can't win a war against china without US help. beside if china invade taiwan, it will be decades from now.

as for air dominance, kosovo war 1999, if you are F16 pilot then you know the first wave is cruise missile, bombs aka air force.

https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/taiw...ept-explained/
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