Russia has now invaded Ukraine (Putin, interview, enemy, Afghanistan)
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Since you keep on picturing Donbass as some "violent entity," and Kiev's new regime as some "democracy" ... "
The term "Donbass" refers to the civil war, that does happen to be violent. Ukraine is a democratic republic with a multi-party system. That does not mean that it has to function well with the ongoing war and continuing corruption issues. AGAIN THIS IS A REPEAT, OF AT LEAST THREE TIMES.
EDITED - A MISSING "not" is never helpful.
Last edited by EveryLady; 04-13-2022 at 07:23 AM..
The "success" of the protest was directly caused from the escalation of violence. The people that escalated the violence was from the Ukrainian nationalists. I'd like to like to know how Putin controlled these people. You just love to have these plot holes in your theories.
And given what I know about Ukraine, this would be the first time in its history that it changed it politics without a proxy. So again it would take predicting the weather out of season over and over again. Nuland was not out passing cookies. She was installing Yatz and saying who should be in the Ukrainian government. So in other words it utterly destroys any argument that the US was there to help Ukrainian self determination. Funny how you just glossed over that phone call which tells me everything I need to know about your objectivity. She did not deny that phone call. The only one in tin foil hat denial is you.
I specifically mentioned the phone call and only "glossed over" it since it was a given. In other words, I KNOW all about it. NEVER have I denied U.S. political involvement in Ukraine. OF COURSE, the U.S. was promoting a candidate. The questions are: WHO sparked the civil war. Of course, a long chain of events exists in such happenings. Before I've cited this:
Quote:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2014/...ukraine-a41598
Russian national Igor Strelkov, a former commander of pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine, has claimed personal responsibility for unleashing the conflict in which 4,300 people have been killed since April. "I was the one who pulled the trigger of this war," Strelkov said in an interview published Thursday with Russia's Zavtra newspaper, which espouses imperialist views. "If our unit hadn't crossed the border, everything would have fizzled out — like in [the Ukrainian city of] Kharkiv, like in Odessa," Strelkov, who uses that nom-de-guerre meaning "Shooter" to replace his last name Girkin, was quoted as saying.
This analysis agrees, but continues to explore Putin's goals:
Quote:
He [Strelkov] did enough to help turn what might have been patchy unrest into a violent conflict, but then fell out with Moscow for two reasons. First, he was attracting too much attention, especially after he was implicated in the shooting down of the Malaysian airliner – MH17 – for which he is now being tried (in absentia) in the Netherlands. Second, he disagreed over political objectives. He wanted the territory of Donbas (and more if possible) to follow Crimea into becoming part of the Russian Federation. But Vladimir Putin held back. Militarily, this would certainly have been easier for Russia then than it is now, but Putin’s preferred strategy at the time was to integrate Donbas back into Ukraine under anew constitution that would guarantee it extra rights and an ability to influence Kyiv’s future political direction. Girkin thought this was a lost opportunity. His readiness to speak his mind, and the publicity surrounding him, irritated Moscow, and so he was told to get back to Russia and shut up. https://www.newstatesman.com/world/e...-debacle-shows
As mentioned earlier, with the Donbass enclave and the Crimea gone, Putin could not hope to again influence a Russian election, like the US attempted to influence the Poroshenko election. Putin no longer had the votes in what is a democratic process. Putin appeared to have attempted to influence local reaction and support for his military intervention read invasion with money to regional powers. That failed, with the FSB now in disgrace.
NOTE--You misread the "cookie" reference to Nuland. Passing out cookies (or foreign goodies) is a form of influence. Still it is less disruptive to the Ukrainian people than this now Putin passing out land mines.
You misread the "cookie" reference to Nuland. Passing out cookies (or foreign goodies) is a form of influence. Still it is less disruptive to the Ukrainian people than this now Putin passing out land mines.
Nuland's actions in Ukraine in 2014 had a direct role in creating the circumstances that ultimately led to the 8-year-long siege of the Donbass Russians. Prior to Maidan, the Donbass Russians did not face shelling, sniping, bombardments.
I'd say that 14,000 civilians dead over 8 years is pretty disruptive.
Nuland's actions in Ukraine in 2014 had a direct role in creating the circumstances that ultimately led to the 8-year-long siege of the Donbass Russians. Prior to Maidan, the Donbass Russians did not face shelling, sniping, bombardments.
I'd say that 14,000 civilians dead over 8 years is pretty disruptive.
Apologies for not returning to your long post (but will). Instead there are intermediary posts. One of which (happily) is yours.
Why Ukraine rejected Russian influence is multi-factorial. Not initially evenly distributed throughout the country, with no doubt some continued disparities. Who encouraged that rejection is another question.
Of course every "actor" (both local and foreign) made some contribution to a long and complicated process. Not sure if you were reading the thread for a while. Often some key "player" appears who takes a difficult situation and makes it worse. That person right now is Putin.
EDITED TO note - 14,000 civilians have not died in the civil war. The figure is about 4,300 (primarily from shelling) with the remainder roughly divided between Ukrainian and Separatist combatants with a substantial number of dead Russians. Many, many thousands now dying in Ukrainian cities and villages at this time.
Last edited by EveryLady; 04-13-2022 at 07:48 AM..
Nuland's actions in Ukraine in 2014 had a direct role in creating the circumstances that ultimately led to the 8-year-long siege of the Donbass Russians. Prior to Maidan, the Donbass Russians did not face shelling, sniping, bombardments.
I'd say that 14,000 civilians dead over 8 years is pretty disruptive.
It escalated and polarized after the Ukrainian nationalists made it violent. It was the same group the US decided to back with money and weapons. . Apparently people with their theories don't bother to see the same thing happen in other parts of the world including our own civil war. Small acts of violence reinforce into greater acts of violence until it became reasonable to assume that if you are Russian leaning you will be a target so then one is forced to align themselves. Like a gas air mix the relativity balanced bi-cultural state was extreme in this danger. Even since the 90s Ukraine never became a functional state. Quite a contrast from the Czechs and the Slovaks.
Not going to pull up annual data, but the vast majority of civilians death appeared to have occurred in 2014 and 2015. With the civil war now at an uneasy stalemate that complicated Ukrainian governance, negatively impacted its economy leaving the Donbas economically devastated. Fully one-half of former Donbass residents had fled by 2022. Putin broke that stalemate by sending even more Russian troops into Ukraine, resulting in many times the number of earlier civilian deaths.
Apologies for not returning to your long post (but will). Instead there are intermediary posts. One of which (happily) is yours.
Why Ukraine rejected Russian influence is multi-factorial. Not initially evenly distributed throughout the country, with no doubt some continued disparities. Who encouraged that rejection is another question.
The propped up regime rejected Russian influence. The East never rejected Russian influence and never will unless , as some in Western Ukraine have mentioned on talk shows , is ethnically cleansed. It was a coup. You can keep saying we went over this as if it was controversial, but I am not going to let the inmates in the asylum insist upon their mythological realities. its like calling the civil war the war of northern aggression. Had Russia tried to keep Ukraine in the Russian Federation I would have said the same of Western Ukraine. It has always been hostile to Russia and very nationalistic for the reasons I have pointed out. Ukrainian nationalism is itself a manufacture of foreign powers due to the Polish issue which the West now chooses the path of collective amnesia from rich mineral poisoning.
Again, Ukraine to this day pulls the same crap on the Transcarpathian calling them a fake culture all while it complains the Russians call them a fake culture. This again at the very least calls for a Federal system. The same central government goons in my country, the US, keep trying to dissolve the Federal system as well all while people think we are becoming more divided. We are not more divided. Dissolving the Federal system causes division. Why to I care of California wants pot smoking and abortion while Oklahoma bans it? I don't live there.
Only a Federalized Ukraine with lots of autonomy for the different cultures could stability ever be maintained.
Quote:
Of course every "actor" (both local and foreign) made some contribution to a long and complicated process. Not sure if you were reading the thread for a while. Often some key "player" appears who takes a difficult situation and makes it worse. That person right now is Putin.
Note - 14,000 civilians have not died in the civil war. The figure is about 4,300 (primarily from shelling) with the remainder roughly divided between Ukrainian and Separatist combatants with a substantial number of dead Russians. Many, many thousands now dying in Ukrainian cities and villages at this time.
The key players are NATO , dominated by the US, and Russia. Its a proxy war been North America , Western Europe, And the remnants of the Anglo Empire vs Asia. Anyone that does not think so needs a box of crayons and a coloring book to occupy themselves, not babble on the internet about geopolitics.
P.S. What I hear now, is that around 1,000 Ukrainian marines surrendered couple of days ago in Mariupol ( once they've got out of "Azov"'s control.)
And that mentioned above Medvedchuk "popped up on a surface" ( i.e. was shown to the Russians ( Putin?) as a potential candidate for possible exchange.
(The way Medvedchuk looks in this photo - he has been kept captive by the Security Service of Ukraine in their "cellars" for quite some time already.)
A video of hundreds of marines "surrendering" appears on social media every few days as if it is current. Some of the marines are actually wearing gym shoes. It's thought to have been taken in Donbas back in 2014.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken_N
The defenders of Mariupol might have gotten some reinforcements
"Azov has received substantial reinforcements. The 36th Brigade has avoided being defeated by troop detachments and gained additional major opportunities, in fact getting a second chance. The defenders of the city have now jointly reinforced their defence area substantially. Overall, the city's (Mariupol's) defence system has grown and strengthened."
Then there is this:
"I can’t give you all the details, but I can say that right now we have joined the "Azov" Regiment. Several hundred marines managed to escape, including the wounded," the officer from the 36th Brigade said. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/04/12/7339144/
There goes the mysterious NATO officers?
Per the BBC:
Quote:
Ukraine continues to deny Russian reports of more than 1,000 marines surrendering in the strategic, besieged port city of Mariupol.
Speaking to the BBC, Petro Andriuschenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, has dismissed Russia's statements as "impossible".
He says Ukraine still holds several areas of the city.
"They don't control our harbour, they don't control Azovstal [iron and steel works]," Andriuschenko says.
Russian forces were also not controlling half of the eastern district of Livoberezhnyi, the biggest part of Prymorskyi in the north or half of the city's central district.
Interesting: both "sides" have a movement of about 700 marines, with the Ukrainians having them escaping and the Russians making them captured. Well if the Russian proof is that video of marines in groups trudging along a road, that one is a fake. If only because they cannot surrender multiple times.
Last edited by EveryLady; 04-13-2022 at 09:30 AM..
“In the settlements of the Kiev region, Borodyanka and Gostomel, liberated from Russian invaders, volunteers, side by side with rescuers, are sorting through the rubble, looking for the missing, and cleaning the streets.”
Sky News opines that Mariupol will probably fall within hours.
Ukrainians are out of ammo; Ukraine does not dispute that.
This will fee up Russian soldiers to go fight somewhere else.
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