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Old 04-29-2022, 02:46 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
7,826 posts, read 2,710,336 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure View Post
They are not in a rush since their tactics are thorough destruction of the Ukrainian troops with the barrage of artillery fire.

They don't move until this part of "scorched earth" tactics is done.

Yes this approach makes advancement much slower, but this way Russians spare their own troops, while Ukraine incurs heavy losses ( their official Arestovich admitted it today.)
Ukraine will lay barren, but I suppose this doesn't bother you a bit, since you want them to fight till the last Ukrainian for American interests.

Do you think it's moral?
I didn't want to see any war...Putin made that call. The Russians are in a race against time. They don't have the time to do scorched earth tactics....they need to encircle the Donbas Now. There are 300,000 Ukrainian Reserves in training that will be joining the campaign in as little as two months and the flow of weaponry from the west is arriving now. Russia is bogged down by logistics as they have been the entire war....it's something they have a reputation for in previous wars. The trend here favors Ukraine.

 
Old 04-29-2022, 02:55 PM
 
26,733 posts, read 22,400,147 times
Reputation: 10022
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnBoy64 View Post
I didn't want to see any war...Putin made that call. The Russians are in a race against time. They don't have the time to do scorched earth tactics....they need to encircle the Donbas Now. There are 300,000 Ukrainian Reserves in training that will be joining the campaign in as little as two months and the flow of weaponry from the west is arriving now. Russia is bogged down by logistics as they have been the entire war....it's something they have a reputation for in previous wars. The trend here favors Ukraine.

Oh, as far as this part goes...
By now Russians started bombing the railway junctions in Western/Central parts of Ukraine, through which those supplies supposed to be moved to Eastern Ukraine.

And if Russian logistics are poor as you say, then Ukrainian logistics are a disaster.


And with this methodical destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure that connects the East and the West of the country, I see the gradual disintegration of Ukraine, which makes me think of eventual partition.
 
Old 04-29-2022, 03:00 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
7,826 posts, read 2,710,336 times
Reputation: 3387
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure View Post
Oh, as far as this part goes...
By now Russians started bombing the railway junctions in Western/Central parts of Ukraine, through which those supplies supposed to be moved to Eastern Ukraine.

And if Russian logistics are poor as you say, then Ukrainian logistics are a disaster.


And with this methodical destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure that connects the East and the West of the country, I see the gradual disintegration of Ukraine, which makes me think of eventual partition.
If that makes you feel better...go ahead an believe that. Ukraine has the support of 40 nations that are in the process of implementing logistics on a level not seen since D-Day in 1944.
 
Old 04-29-2022, 03:03 PM
 
8,490 posts, read 3,310,354 times
Reputation: 6919
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave New World View Post
According to the latest from Sky News, there is deep division in Russia, with the possibility of a coup against Putin.

"Ukraine latest amid anger after Russia bombards Kyiv during visit by UN chief; US says it does not believe there is a threat of a Russian nuclear strike; expert predicts Putin will face coup as his forces collapse" - Sky News.

Ukraine news live: Putin to face coup as forces collapse after 'major strategic shift', expert says; cracks emerge in Russian elite; anger over missiles while UN chief in Kyiv - Sky News

Vladimir Putin’s generals turning on weak & sickly tyrant over Ukraine war disaster as fears grow of palace coup - The Sun

According to the BBC, Russian forces became bogged down in mud in Eastern Ukraine, and analysts are in a agreement with Ukrainians that Russian losses have been colossal.
Putin's position has been stable, which might continue for some time to come. Still this war is a triad - UKRAINE - W. SUPPORT - RUSSIA. The collapse of any pillar leads to the war's end, without it each party remains trapped in an unsolvable conflict.

The Russian 'soft' takeover of Ukraine failed. Ukraine not only won't but cannot accept Russia's 'new plans' for it. Ukraine cannot function as a viable country in the little plot cut off from the Black Sea that Russian imperialists plan to give it. Increasingly agricultural it needs access to shipping to export wheat and corn. Even if Ukraine remains largely 'whole,' Russia can continue to block the Black Sea preventing ships from contracting to carry Ukrainian product. Ukraine historically divided in a messy democracy is surprisingly united.

Likewise for western nations, now largely together due to (1) Putin threats (that include the nuclear, which backfire to recreate the 'Russian menace') and (2) the humanitarian disaster.

Ukrainian and western resistance is based on the consensus of multiple parties. That's not true for Russia. This invasion came not from a consensus of the Russian elite (caught by surprise) but from Putin (and his close circle), an authoritarian within what amounts to a dictatorship who does have popular support. The weakest part of the triad largely dependent on the will of one person almost has to be Russia.

This war is not winnable by Russia, nor even by Ukraine with Western supplied arms. There has to be a settlement. The Russian elite are not fools, and in the end only they can stop this. The war will continue until that happens. However long that may be.

Googled now to find current thinking to see this, a good synopsis IMHO, "Why has Russia Invaded Ukraine and What Does Putin Want:"

Quote:
Having witnessed Mr Putin's willingness to lay waste to European cities to achieve his aims, Western leaders are now under no illusion. US President Joe Biden has labelled him a war criminal and the leaders of both Germany and France see this war as a turning point in the history of Europe. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz believes "Putin wants to build a Russian empire... he wants to fundamentally redefine the status quo within Europe in line with his own vision. And he has no qualms about using military force to do so."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589
Look at the first bold, not words ('Russia is under threat') but actual destruction is what brought the West (and Ukraine) together. Ideas have power, but dying more.

Russian expansionism now expressed not as Communism but a resurgence of Russian imperialism. Turns out Eastern European countries eager to join NATO for protection were right all along. Those thinking the Cold War long ago dead (and here I include myself) and Europe now stable, the naive.


Quote:
Originally Posted by uggabugga View Post
what are long range fires?
Think I noticed 20 km but not following closely - and not grasping military implications - may have that wrong.
 
Old 04-29-2022, 03:11 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
7,826 posts, read 2,710,336 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EveryLady View Post



Russian expansionism now expressed not as Communism but a resurgence of Russian imperialism. Turns out Eastern European countries eager to join NATO for protection were right all along. Those thinking the Cold War long ago dead (and here I include myself) and Europe now stable, the naive.
Me included....I never dreamed we would see something like this.
 
Old 04-29-2022, 03:15 PM
 
26,733 posts, read 22,400,147 times
Reputation: 10022
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnBoy64 View Post
If that makes you feel better...go ahead an believe that. Ukraine has the support of 40 nations that are in the process of implementing logistics on a level not seen since D-Day in 1944.

It all won't matter if Ukrainian bridges are destroyed and the nuclear arms are at play.

I see it as sort of "back to the Cold War" arrangements with defined borders (I don't exclude closed borders possibility, or the new "Iron curtain,") just a new, slightly different variation of it.

This stand-off between Russia and the West won't be based on the "ideological ground" of defending "communism" any longer.

But it's going to be a stand off never the less, and a serious one.
 
Old 04-29-2022, 03:22 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
7,826 posts, read 2,710,336 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure View Post
It all won't matter if Ukrainian bridges are destroyed and the nuclear arms are at play.

I see it as sort of "back to the Cold War" arrangements with defined borders (I don't exclude closed borders possibility, or the new "Iron curtain,") just a new, slightly different variation of it.

This stand-off between Russia and the West won't be based on the "ideological ground" of defending "communism" any longer.

But it's going to be a stand off never the less, and a serious one.
Any use of nuclear weapons (tactical) will be met with Massive Massive conventional weapons and the Full engagement of NATO. Then it's a roll of the dice if it elevates to strategic nuclear war....no one wins that one.

I agree with Putin in control we will experience a fortified Iron Curtain. Russia will be a hermit state with some nuclear weapons.
 
Old 04-29-2022, 03:27 PM
 
20,627 posts, read 19,289,703 times
Reputation: 8229
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnBoy64 View Post
I didn't want to see any war...Putin made that call. The Russians are in a race against time. They don't have the time to do scorched earth tactics....they need to encircle the Donbas Now. There are 300,000 Ukrainian Reserves in training that will be joining the campaign in as little as two months and the flow of weaponry from the west is arriving now. Russia is bogged down by logistics as they have been the entire war....it's something they have a reputation for in previous wars. The trend here favors Ukraine.



All it takes is missing one thing like fuel and they will be useless. All this talk of arms trickling in like 200 artillery and 200 tanks more or less implies what is obvious. Their loses. They started with 2100+ tanks, 2800+ armored vehicles , 1900+ artillery . So replacing even 50% of piece meal , with more poorly trained troops, incomparable NATO units and having to enter the theater with no air cover is not likely to work . Russia has yet to call in their reservists , and i expect they would before being pushed out of the areas they have taken.



Anyway, in 2 months their best troops will be their worst troops if they are still there.
 
Old 04-29-2022, 03:37 PM
 
26,733 posts, read 22,400,147 times
Reputation: 10022
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwynedd1 View Post
All it takes is missing one thing like fuel and they will be useless. All this talk of arms trickling in like 200 artillery and 200 tanks more or less implies what is obvious. Their loses. They started with 2100+ tanks, 2800+ armored vehicles , 1900+ artillery . So replacing even 50% of piece meal , with more poorly trained troops, incomparable NATO units and having to enter the theater with no air cover is not likely to work . Russia has yet to call in their reservists , and i expect they would before being pushed out of the areas they have taken.



Anyway, in 2 months their best troops will be their worst troops if they are still there.

I have forgotten to mention that Ukraine is experiencing shortage of fuel as it is.

For civilians - big time already.
 
Old 04-29-2022, 03:40 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
7,826 posts, read 2,710,336 times
Reputation: 3387
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwynedd1 View Post
All it takes is missing one thing like fuel and they will be useless. All this talk of arms trickling in like 200 artillery and 200 tanks more or less implies what is obvious. Their loses. They started with 2100+ tanks, 2800+ armored vehicles , 1900+ artillery . So replacing even 50% of piece meal , with more poorly trained troops, incomparable NATO units and having to enter the theater with no air cover is not likely to work . Russia has yet to call in their reservists , and i expect they would before being pushed out of the areas they have taken.



Anyway, in 2 months their best troops will be their worst troops if they are still there.
No not really. Putin would have to call for a General Mobilization to call in their reservists...something he has been quite reticent to do. He would then lose control over the war aims and be stuck with a maximalist goal.

Russia doesn't have any air superiority either. And here is one key thing missing from your point....Russian morale is low...and that has been verified countless times....Ukrainians are fighting for their very existence. That creates a multiplier effect on the Ukrainian forces...they still haven't given up in Mariupol. How much does Russia want to throw at this....it has already weakened their military....they can't make tanks...they can't get replacement parts for the current equipment. The Ukrainians will have a steady stream of materials, and an ever experienced military force.
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