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Old 05-03-2022, 10:06 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles
7,826 posts, read 2,710,336 times
Reputation: 3387

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taiko View Post
I guess we are in a situation where Ukraine won and now we are in a pre-invasion position only with larger armies fighting over what Russia took in 2014. Assuming that Russia doesn't use a WMD and Ukraine gets stalled at restoring to the USSR borders it just becomes one of many world conflicts. And with that we lose interest in talking about.
Ukraine is planning a major counter-offensive in late May/June. If these are successful that will cut through the noise.

 
Old 05-03-2022, 10:28 AM
 
46,891 posts, read 25,860,181 times
Reputation: 29355
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo58 View Post
It goes further. They deport Ukrainian residents to Siberia and move ethnic Russians in their place. Stalin did it, and it's happening again.
Stalin's image is getting a do-over in Russia. The regime seems very set on selling the idea of a strong leader with a firm hand.
 
Old 05-03-2022, 10:34 AM
 
1,333 posts, read 466,258 times
Reputation: 619
Quote:
Originally Posted by EveryLady View Post
A Greece source (many Greeks in the region specifically Mariupol) disagrees: "Now home to a majority of Russian-speaking people, they moved there only in recent decades." https://greekreporter.com/2022/02/22...netsk-luhansk/

More, movements of peasantry into portions of the Donbas began much earlier than the 18th century. It was basically unpopulated up until the second half of the 17th century (Greek Reporter) with that population always forming a majority until the present. At no time did Russian settlers predominate (demographic data).


HISTORY OF THE AREA:
The 'Wild Fields' lay in present-day Eastern and Southern Ukraine into Western Russia, north of the Black Sea and Azov Sea. A portion of the Wild Fields that extended into the Donbas contained the Zaporizhian Sich which became a proto state of Cossacks existing from the 16th to the 18th century. The Sich was increasingly populated by serfs who fled the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and were termed the Ukrainian peasantry. Bohdan Khmelnytsky took over the Sich and established the Cossack Hetmanate in 1648.



In Ukraine, Khmelnytsky is generally regarded as a national hero although he is criticized for allowing the Crimean tartars to take large numbers of Ukrainian peasants as slaves. He is also claimed as a Russian hero for 'reuniting' Ukraine with Russia.

"The Donbas remained for the most part under the control of the Ukrainian Cossack Hetmanate and the Turkic Crimean Khanate until the mid-late 18th century, when the Russian Empire [under Catherine the Great] conquered the Hetmanate and annexed the Khanate."
https://greekreporter.com/2022/02/22...netsk-luhansk/


DEMOGRAPHICS:
At the end of the 18th century, many Russians, Serbs and Greeks migrated to the region. It was now integrated into the Russian Empire as "New Russia."

The rise of the coal industry in the 19th century did lead to a "population boom" in Russian settlers. Landless peasants from Russia also arrived.

[u]Further demographic figures and changes:


The net result was most ethnic Russians moved to the Donbas only in recent decades. Simultaneously, ethnic Ukrainian peasants also moved to the cities and began to use Russian as their first language. Specifically:

"By 1959, the number of ethnic Russians living there was 2.55 million; just 33 years prior, it had been just 639,000. The Russification of the area accelerated after the 1958–59 Soviet educational reforms, which led to the near elimination of all Ukrainian-language schooling in the Donbas."
https://greekreporter.com/2022/02/22...netsk-luhansk/
What wasn't mentioned in the responce here is the fact that the original grounds of Mariupol was in fact poised to have a new city constructed on it called Pavlovsk by the governor of the Russian administrative zone back in the 1700s atop an old Cossack area called Kalmius. I looked at the first census conducted by the Russian Empire back in 1897. Statistically Russian was the native language for 63% of the population in Mariupol even back then. Crimean Greeks who were resettled in the area in the 18th century have one of the oldest claims not counting the Cossacks though today their language is a small minority.

The Cossack Hetmanate had already become a vassal of Tsarist Russia back in the 1650s thanks to the Pereiaslav Agreement. They spoke Balachka which is a Ukrainian dialect but Russian was also spoken. In a number of groups such as the Grebensky Cossacks who are descended from the Don Cossacks they spoke Russian and the Turkik dialect, Nogai.

The point is Russians have been residing in those lands for centuries for about as long as the Ukrainians in many cases. In the instance of some place like Slobozhanshchyna it belonged to Russia after seizing it from Lithuania in the 16th century. Ukrainian settlement came afterwards. This is all besides the point that the industrialisation came about as a result of Russian involvement.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bu2 View Post
That's only because the Russians have been beaten back from those parts of the country. The stories from the front lines all tell of water and power being gone.
In the centres of engagement it wouldn't surprise me. Bullets, explosives and munitions getting tossed about everywhere. Across entire regions and the nation as a whole it's a different story; this isn't 2003 Iraq where the USA made it point to target key infrastructural areas.
 
Old 05-03-2022, 11:09 AM
 
Location: Western PA
10,496 posts, read 4,312,072 times
Reputation: 6515
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdnirene View Post
Most of those who posted to this thread early on are no longer doing so:

//www.city-data.com/forum/misc.php?do=whoposted&t=3341266

first 50-100 pages when it was about the war, it was MY thread. but alas, you are lucky to see me 5 x a week now. Im still 100 posts behind Deb tho...dangit!
 
Old 05-03-2022, 11:17 AM
 
51,619 posts, read 25,681,640 times
Reputation: 37806
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrLuvStrange View Post
https://www.newsweek.com/warehouse-f...-house-1702826

March-April 2022, fires at Russia that seem to relate to Ukrainian conflict, accidental or not:

One chemical factory

Army research center

5 conscription offices

Oil storage facility / refinery

Other storage depots × 2

Governors mansion in Moscow oblast

Sakhalin coal plant

Publishing house

Gunpowder plant fire at Perm
Then there was that fire on the warship that got out of hand.

Lot of accidental fires.
 
Old 05-03-2022, 11:19 AM
 
51,619 posts, read 25,681,640 times
Reputation: 37806
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrLuvStrange View Post
Oh ya, the 2014 situation when Ukrainians ousted a Russian puppet.
Wasn't 2014 also when Russia "annexed" Crimea?
 
Old 05-03-2022, 11:21 AM
bu2
 
23,972 posts, read 14,760,934 times
Reputation: 12781
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure View Post
That's what propaganda wants you to believe.

And that's the lies the Ukrainian government was producing, while pointing at Kremlin.

In reality, this assassination was carried out with the help of the Canadian Intelligence service, as the later events are pointing at, ( not even American,) as much as the assassinations of the other two very popular in Donbass field commanders.

Not only Ukraine is a Nazi state, but it's a terrorist state.
Your propaganda claims it was Canadian. Every non-Russian source suggests it was an internal conflict among the mercenaries.

Given the way these Russian founded fiefdoms run, a fellow gangster murdering him seems the most likely.

Replace Russian with German and Nazi with Socialist and Putin is taking Hitler's speeches almost word for word. He murders internal opposition. He sent several hit squads on Zelensky. And his soldiers (orcs may be a better term) are murdering and kidnapping civilians. Or are you going to deny the dozens of personal stories of Russian atrocities against civilians? Probably.
 
Old 05-03-2022, 11:29 AM
 
51,619 posts, read 25,681,640 times
Reputation: 37806
Quote:
Originally Posted by VikingsToValhalla View Post
The guy was democratically elected by a majority of Ukrainians.

Ultimately, Ukraine will have to be split up because the Russian majority in eastern Ukraine don't see eye to eye with the rest of Ukraine. They should be allowed to form their own state or join Russia if they wish. It should be decided by a fair election in the Donbas region.
Not happening.

When this is all said and done, Russia will be lucky to hang on to Crimea.
 
Old 05-03-2022, 11:57 AM
 
8,490 posts, read 3,310,354 times
Reputation: 6924
Quote:
Originally Posted by bu2 View Post
First, that area is about 60% Ukrainian ethnically. It IS majority Russian speaking. Other than a few cities, Russians are the minority almost everywhere in the Donbas.

Second, its not clear how many of the people are pro-Russian. Outside the area the Russian mercenary separatist army held, I imagine those areas are about as anti-Russian as you can get now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure View Post
It was VERY CLEAR how many of them were pro-Russian back in 2014, after the coup d'etat in Kiev, sponsored by America.

This is an example; ( You can clearly hear them chanting "Russia, Russia," can't you?)




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFmRzvZ8MS0&t=141s


It's after so many people in the South-East were killed/imprisoned/forced out of the country, and overall underwent the process of so-called "stabilization of the region," that now you can ask "how many people are pro-Russian."
There were plenty after that coup d'etat.

That Russia betrayed them back in 2014 is a whole different story.
Not a fan of these video proofs. The better measure is to simply to ask enough people to allow a statistically valid sample. Pew Research May 2014 - Field work done April 2014. Yanukovych fled in February 2014.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2...n-one-country/

Remain united or permit regions to secede if they choose?

Ukraine's west, including the central region around Kyiv - 93% remain united
Ukraine's east including the southeast and border with Russia - 70% remain united (Substantial 'don't know')
Ukraine's east, Russian speakers only - 58% remain united ((Substantial 'don't know')
Crimea - 46% remain united

Other findings:
Quote:
The survey in Ukraine finds that ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians largely have favorable views of one another. Nonetheless, there are stark regional divides, especially when it comes to the issues of official languages and governance.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2...n-one-country/
Lack of confidence in the central government. Only half in western Ukraine trust Kyiv to protect personal freedoms, far fewer in the east. Russia is viewed with more suspicion then either the US or ER. 67% say its having a bad influence on Ukraine. (For all stats there can be large categories of 'I don't know').

Quote:
When asked their attitude toward different ethnic groups, overwhelming majorities in Ukraine say they have a favorable opinion of ethnic Ukrainians (96%), Jews (87%), Russians (84%) and Tatars (84%). With regard to ethnic Ukrainians, favorable attitudes are highly uniform across the territory of the country. Views toward ethnic Russians, however, are more positive in the country’s east (93% favorable) than either the far west or center west (60% and 81% favorable, respectively). Meanwhile, there are smaller differences by language, with Russian-only speakers more favorable toward ethnic Russians (94%) than either bilingual (85%) or Ukrainian-only speakers (73%).
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2...n-one-country/
No difference between western or Eastern Ukraine or between Russian-only speakers and others on concern for possible ethnic conflict - about 75% think it a big problem. At the time of this poll, clashes between pro-maiden and anti-maiden supporters had been occurring for months. In the Donbas, separatists had occupied government buildings. The Donetsk People's Republic declared about a week before the field interviews began.

Impact of the “Right Sector” - 34% of western Ukraine give it a positive evaluation but only 7% in the east.

Quote:
Within the east, Russian-only speakers lean more toward Russia (42%) than the EU (12%), although a sizable percentage says both (34%).

Russia’s image, by contrast, has sharply declined over the same period.
In 2009, 46% of Ukrainians thought Russia was having a good influence on the way things were going in their country, while just a quarter saw Russia’s role as negative. Today, opinion has reversed: just 22% say Russia’s impact is positive, compared with two-thirds who say Russia’s influence is very bad (49%) or mostly bad (18%).

Unfavorable opinion of Russia may be linked, in part, to doubts that the Kremlin sincerely cares about civil liberties in Ukraine, let alone in Russia itself. When asked, six-in-ten Ukrainians respond that Moscow does not respect the personal freedoms of its own citizens.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2...n-one-country/
 
Old 05-03-2022, 11:59 AM
 
51,619 posts, read 25,681,640 times
Reputation: 37806
Putin got away with biting off a chunk of territory here, a hunk there, claiming that whoever lived in these areas actually wanted to live under Russian rule.

Ukraine tried to force the Russians back to their own borders, but it was a David and Goliath struggle, and no other nation wanted to get into it with Russia.

Then a couple months ago, Putin decided to see how much more Ukrainian land he could grab for his dream of restoring imperial Russia.

This time the fight was on.

Day 70.

Kyiv still stands.

Russian army has retreated to the coast, but it is unclear what they are able to do besides bomb cities to rubble. They are basically in the same place they were several months ago, minus a lot of tanks, soldiers, and generals.
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