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This bothers me to no end. Russians created this monster and allowed him to rule for decades. Now they want to flee. Where were they when Putin seized Crimea and was involved with Donbas?
Because the neo-Nazis in Donbass take orders from and are subordinate to the folks running the show from Kiev, and the folks in Kiev also know where all the U.S./western-supplied weaponry is or at least was supposed to be distributed/cached.
Russia wants to take all that stuff out, just as it wants to kill (or at the very least, arrest, disarm, and imprison if not execute the "Ukronazis").
EDIT: you said "take over Kiev." I wouldn't say they want to make Kiev's government surrender so they can then abolish it, the way North Vietnam captured Saigon and dissolved the South Vietnamese government. Putin doesn't want to annex Ukraine the way Germany annexed Austria or the way Japan annexed Korea. It wants change, but it doesn't want to hold authority over Ukraine as was the case in the days of the Soviet Union.
You bold, not that simple. And almost certainly any "command structure" down to a militia member is weakened now that "the homeland" is under outright attack. These men pride their independence, and when asked why not outright join the regular army scoff brag they would outright disregard the army "as necessary."
VICE , in particular, has a series of excellent videos where reporters embed for a while with various groups and basically just allow members to talk. (In contrast to these opinion videos or something crafted like what Oliver Stone does.). As always, listen to what they say.
Violence and instability tends only to promote more. The militias movements arose largely in response to the Russian separatist violence promoted by Putin in the Donbass in 2014. This from Foreign Affairs in 2017:
It's conclusion: "When the conflict in Ukraine began in early 2014, a disturbing number of armed groups—from looting gangs to militias with ties to European white supremacy movements—sprang up from the chaos. Although the role and origin of those pro-Ukrainian militias has been hotly debated, one thing is clear: several years after the start of the conflict, the Ukrainian government has managed to stifle the independent armed groups fighting on its side. Its success offers lessons for other countries attempting to demobilize populations after a war. " https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...ck_logged_in=1
Unfortunately it turns out that the "war" was not over. Putin had more in mind.
Their origin: "At the start of the war in 2014, there were as many as 30 small armed groups made up of 50 to 100 people. This assortment quickly consolidated into five main militias: Right Sector, Azov, Aidar, Donbas, and Dnepr 1. These semi-independent groups absorbed most of Ukraine’s freelance fighters and small ethnic militias. Although each group had its own leadership, logistics, and funding, they had to negotiate access to the frontline with the Ukrainian government, and they depended on the regular army for artillery cover. Many of the volunteer fighters were internally displaced people from eastern Ukraine and Crimea, although some Russian far-right activists came to participate in the fight." https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...ck_logged_in=1
The why of it: "At the start of the war [in 2014, that Putin promoted], when Ukraine’s standing army was weak and slow to mobilize, such groups were crucial to the defense of the territory. However, even from the start, there were major problems with their operations. They rarely coordinated with each other or the Ukrainian army on the battlefield or off. Furthermore, there was no legal supervision of their activities, as Amnesty International has repeatedly pointed out." https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...ck_logged_in=1
In short, the government disallowed independent militias and forced - some initially balked - into a national guard type command structure theoretically subordinate to the government. But they continued to operate independently.
Now - 2022, during an invasion it would not be a surprise if some are good to their word and defy the government when they deem it necessary. As mentioned earlier governmental troops and militias have at times clashed.
So per the prior discussion, do I think it possible the Azov Battalion has been uncooperative when it comes to the evacuation of civilians from Mariupol. Sure of course - it would be naive to think otherwise. But does that mean the Ukrainian officials and government not want the civilians out? Nonsense.
EDITED TO ADD - Since 2014, the Ukrainian army is not now so weak as the Russians are finding out. They become battle-hardened much better trained fighters with better although still below-par weaponry provided by the west.
Last edited by EveryLady; 03-14-2022 at 12:01 PM..
I see 3 possible outcomes of this war. I have no idea which one will play out, but either way it doesn't end well for Ukraine.
1. A Russian "dumb bomb" accidentally hits Poland or another EU country and NATO gets involved.
2. Russia is crippled financially and ends up not having the finances for the war. This could take months or even years. By this time, Ukrainian cities will be empty and reduced to rubble.
3. Russia takes Zelensky and Kyiv and installs a puppet government. Part of Ukraine becomes de-facto Russia. The other part remains Ukraine until Russia has more resources to occupy all of the country.
The sad thing is that so many people have fled the country and many may never return. Ukraine's history has changed forever.
#3 - I think they will take Odesa and draw a line north to Kyiv, splitting Ukraine into east and west
“I’ve never had my phone blow up like this ever in my life. There is a feeling of potential panic. It isn’t panic yet, but the fear is there, like, where does this stop? Every day there is some senator saying LLCs must be further regulated and undressed,” Dolly Lenz said. “They are afraid of getting their assets seized, even if it is just guilt by association.”
You bold, not that simple. And almost certainly any "command structure" down to a militia member is weakened now that "the homeland" is under outright attack. These men pride their independence, and when asked why not outright join the regular army scoff brag they would outright disregard the army "as necessary."
VICE , in particular, has a series of excellent videos where reporters embed for a while with various groups and basically just allow members to talk. (In contrast to these opinion videos or something crafted like what Oliver Stone does.). As always, listen to what they say.
Violence and instability tends only to promote more. The militias movements arose largely in response to the Russian separatist violence promoted by Putin in the Donbass in 2014. This from Foreign Affairs in 2017:
It's conclusion: "When the conflict in Ukraine began in early 2014, a disturbing number of armed groups—from looting gangs to militias with ties to European white supremacy movements—sprang up from the chaos. Although the role and origin of those pro-Ukrainian militias has been hotly debated, one thing is clear: several years after the start of the conflict, the Ukrainian government has managed to stifle the independent armed groups fighting on its side. Its success offers lessons for other countries attempting to demobilize populations after a war. " https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...ck_logged_in=1
Unfortunately it turns out that the "war" was not over. Putin had more in mind.
Their origin: "At the start of the war in 2014, there were as many as 30 small armed groups made up of 50 to 100 people. This assortment quickly consolidated into five main militias: Right Sector, Azov, Aidar, Donbas, and Dnepr 1. These semi-independent groups absorbed most of Ukraine’s freelance fighters and small ethnic militias. Although each group had its own leadership, logistics, and funding, they had to negotiate access to the frontline with the Ukrainian government, and they depended on the regular army for artillery cover. Many of the volunteer fighters were internally displaced people from eastern Ukraine and Crimea, although some Russian far-right activists came to participate in the fight." https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...ck_logged_in=1
The why of it: "At the start of the war [in 2014, that Putin promoted], when Ukraine’s standing army was weak and slow to mobilize, such groups were crucial to the defense of the territory. However, even from the start, there were major problems with their operations. They rarely coordinated with each other or the Ukrainian army on the battlefield or off. Furthermore, there was no legal supervision of their activities, as Amnesty International has repeatedly pointed out." https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...ck_logged_in=1
In short, the government disallowed independent militias and forced - some initially balked - into a national guard type commend structure theoretically subordinate to the government. But they continued to operate independently.
Now - 2022, during an invasion it would not be a surprise if they are good to their word and they defy the government when they deem it necessary. As mentioned earlier governmental troops and militias have at times clashed.
So per the prior discussion, do I think it possible the Azov Battalion has been uncooperative when it comes to the evacuation of civilians from Mariupol. Sure of course - it would be naive to think otherwise. But does that mean the Ukrainian officials and government not want the civilians out? Nonsense.
EDITED TO ADD - Since 2014, the Ukrainian army is not now so weak as the Russians are finding out. They become battle-hardened much better trained fighters with better although still below-par weaponry provided by the west.
I have seen you disparage Oliver Stone's videos, even though he interviews Ukrainians who held positions of power, including the very president whom the west helped depose in 2014.
If the command structure is weaker now, then that would lead one to conclude that the Ukrainian military isn't the most professional standing army. Granted, many soldiers and officers have been trained by NATO, but they're still no match for the Russians.
Ukrainian officials don't civilians out? Maybe. But Ukrainian soldiers have stationed military vehicles right next to apartment buildings, which essentially turns scores of civilians into shields. Not much of a tough, strong army the way you describe them if they're willing to place the lives of the very civilians they are ostensibly protecting in the line of fire.
Azov may be small in numbers but they were trained by the US military and armed with the best US weapons. It’s no surprise they’re giving Russia problems in Mariupol, especially in urban areas where they occupy hospitals and residential areas. Zelensky seemed to oppose the group when he was elected but they threatened his life. What if Azov defeats Putin? I think they would take even more control of Ukraine’s government.
(Reuters) - Russian Patriarch Kirill's full-throated blessing for Moscow's invasion of Ukraine has splintered the worldwide Orthodox Church and unleashed an internal rebellion that experts say is unprecedented. Kirill, 75, is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin
Quote:
(Reuters) - Sanctioned Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich was seen in a VIP lounge at Tel Aviv's airport shortly before a jet linked to him took off for Istanbul. A photograph obtained by Reuters showed him sitting in the lounge with a face mask pulled down over his chin
Quote:
(Reuters) - A convoy of over 160 cars left Mariupol on Monday, local officials said, in what appeared to be the first successful attempt to arrange a "humanitarian corridor" to evacuate civilians from the encircled Ukrainian city.
Quote:
(Reuters) - India is considering taking up a Russian offer to buy its crude oil and other commodities at discounted prices with payment via a rupee-rouble transaction, two Indian officials said, amid tough Western sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Azov is incorporated into Ukrainian National Guard, so it's part of the Ukrainian authorities.
" On 13 April 2014, Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov issued a decree authorizing the creation of new paramilitary forces of up to 12,000 people.[29] The Azov Battalion, using "Eastern Corps" as its backbone,[28][better source needed] was formed on 5 May 2014 in Berdiansk[30] by a white nationalist.[31][who?] Azov started as a unit of the Special Tasks Patrol Police (volunteer battalions regulated by the Interior Ministry).
In September 2014, the Azov Battalion was expanded from a battalion to a regiment and enrolled into the National Guard of Ukraine.[3
At about this time it started receiving increased supplies of heavy arms.[40] The Azov Battalion received funding from the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine and other sources (believed to be Ukrainian oligarchs)."
So Azov IS the official part of the Ukrainian state ( and thus they have direct ties to the current Ukrainian authorities. As all other Nationalist paramilitary organizations of Ukraine.
It's a fact.
This puppet government was always relying on them (since 2014) to prompt the highly Nationalistic-oriented state.
( It's another thing that Azov often don't submit to the official commands of either the Ukrainian army or Zelensky personally. (None of the Nationalist Battalions do, so they act as a state within the state.)
But that's already a whole different story.
But other than that - of course all these Nationalist paramilitary organizations are closely intertwined with the current puppet government.
So when Putin is talking about the "denazification" of Ukraine - alas, it's all true.
This material was prepared four years ago ( not few days ago as I initially thought,) so have a look, what all these Nationalist paramilitary organizations are all about, and their role in today's Ukrainian society.
If Russia pays in rubles, it is actually a default as the debt is denominated in dollars and it is highly unlikely debt payments are allowed in another currency.
The Nazis are deeply integrated into the Ukrainian system. Even the main political parties:
Quote:
Svoboda meaning “Freedom,” had originally been named the Social Nationalist Party of Ukraine (inverting Hitler’s National Socialist Party of Germany), until the CIA advised them to change that to “Svoboda” so that the U.S. public (who take pride in “freedom”) could accept them. The other, Right Sector, provided the storm-troopers who carried out the extremely violent February 2014 overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected President, Viktor Yanukovych, while the “Maidan” demonstrations against him had been organized by one of the two co-founders of Svoboda, Andrei Parubiy, who was even called the “Commandant of Maidan.” Obama relied upon Parubiy to succeed. Parubiy did; and his chief assistant, Dmitriy Yarosh was the head of Ukraine’s other nazi party, and had trained the storm-troopers. Parubiy and Yarosh were a perfect team.
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