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One take is Putin did not understand how much the Ukrainian people had changed since his puppet left in 2014.
Isolated, Putin did not grasp the improvements in the Ukrainian Army. Even so, he may well pound Ukraine into submission. At that point, what in the world does he do with it?
Do you know how many people are involved in planning of an operation of such magnitude? Reportedly, it's about 500 officers (in the rank of colonel or above, with many years of specialized training on top of it). Russia has very good intelligence in Ukraine (all plans are known about as soon as they became developed). Do you truly think Putin could _underestimate_ anything?
A friend of mine was in Mariupol, last contact date is March 2. He was volunteering with food and water deliveries and saw what was going on around the city. He told me, that Azov prohibits leaving the city under the threat of death.
As far as Mariupol being levelled down, it's actually untrue, the army has orders to help evacuation before anything. No bombing of the areas and only rocket strikes into the active areas of fire.
Azov is driven outside of residential areas into Azov Steel Plant. Which is built to withhold nuclear strikes and has hundreds of very strong concrete buildings and underground communications leading outside of the city and into the city..
Having said that, the Russian Army has the same maps as Azov of both undergrounds and all the buildings there. Yet, it's a solid stronghold
Do you know how many people are involved in planning of an operation of such magnitude? Reportedly, it's about 500 officers (in the rank of colonel or above, with many years of specialized training on top of it). Russia has very good intelligence in Ukraine (all plans are known about as soon as they became developed). Do you truly think Putin could _underestimate_ anything?
You seem very knowledgeable about Putin's war strategy, like a true Russian operative.
Do you know how many people are involved in planning of an operation of such magnitude? Reportedly, it's about 500 officers (in the rank of colonel or above, with many years of specialized training on top of it). Russia has very good intelligence in Ukraine (all plans are known about as soon as they became developed). Do you truly think Putin could _underestimate_ anything?
It's hard to deny the invasion has not gone as planned. Even Putin apologists admit that. Take a look at this Gilbert Doctorow analysis attached above. How anyone can read that and not be chilled by that kind of thinking is beyond me. Still even he admits Russian intelligence did not realize the Ukrainian army had professionalized.
Several Kremlin watchers are reporting firings etc. For example (a 2-second google):
At a minimum, Putin appears to be displeased with the FSB. For some time now a reported FSB whistleblower has been releasing internal analyses that may be genuine. The gist is that the operation was kept so secret that "hypothetical" ground-level analysis was not well done.
Within the armed forces, logistics have been particularly weak. Finished the rest of the video. The Russian officer corp is highly skilled but even a revamped army now consisting of proportionally more contract than conscripted soldiers still has not overcome the kind of problems (like poor maintenance) not found within US forces. On-ground performance has been spotty.
Defenders knowing what they are fighting for often have an advantage. Apparently expecting an 'easy slog' the other "home team" - the Donetsk People's Army - was not well-equipped. The Russians are attempting to rectify that.
This doesn't mean that the Russians won't prevail in the end due to mass force. These analysts see the Russians now regrouping to deal with the war they found instead of the one they expected. But it is coming at horribly high costs - for both countries, not to mention the wider world.
He told me, that Azov prohibits leaving the city under the threat of death.
The Russian army approached Mariupol from the west; the Donetsk People's Army came from the east where they are now apparently joined by the Chechens.
Russians have not as a rule allowed evacuations into the west where the Ukrainians were certainly trying to evacuate citizens.
The Azov may well be fighting more towards the east; that's the location of the Azovstal plant they've held although their headquarters was in the southwest. I would believe the battalion did not allow people to cross their lines into separatist territory. At a minimum, they'd mined the roads.
(For example, the Ukrainian army evacuated civilians south from Kviv but did not want them going thru their lines to the northeast or the northwest.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by brrabbit
A friend of mine was in Mariupol, last contact date is March 2. He was volunteering with food and water deliveries and saw what was going on around the city. ... As far as Mariupol being levelled down, it's actually untrue, the army has orders to help evacuation before anything. No bombing of the areas and only rocket strikes into the active areas of fire.
Why would you say that if you had not spoken to him since March 2, two and a half weeks ago? WHAT army has orders to help with evacuation? This is not making sense. You can't seriously mean the Russians?
Quote:
Originally Posted by brrabbit
No bombing of the areas and only rocket strikes into the active areas of fire.
There is now street to street fighting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brrabbit
Azov is driven outside of residential areas into Azov Steel Plant. Which is built to withhold nuclear strikes and has hundreds of very strong concrete buildings and underground communications leading outside of the city and into the city..
Having said that, the Russian Army has the same maps as Azov of both undergrounds and all the buildings there. Yet, it's a solid stronghold
The Azovstal steel plant, one of the largest metallurgical facilities in Europe, is in the process of being destroyed. Along with much else of Ukraine.
So if this is true Ukraine has actually added the number of tanks in their arsenal. This is just mind blowing. Since the start of the war, the Russians have lost the equivalent of the Canadian Army land forces (+/-).
I believe they started with 1000 tanks, so they have lost 25% in three weeks. That is unsustainable.
Tanks are on their way to becoming obsolete fast.Too many advanced weapon systems that can take them out fast, nowadays.
The US lost some expensive M1 tanks to cheap RPG's, in the battle of Baghdad.
Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, conceded that Mariupol was now beyond help. The nearest forces that could assist Mariupol’s defenders were 60 miles away and already engaged in battle, he disclosed.
“There is currently no military solution to Mariupol,” he said. “That is not only my opinion, that is the opinion of the military.“
I don't disagree but I've seen enough to know "on the verge" or "close" is not the same as "has fallen". If you had a friend in the hospital and docs said he probably wouldn't make it through the night, would you announce to everyone that he had died?
IF Ukraine had units on the way to join the fight, do you think the govt would announce that? Having a top official say there are no military nearby to assist sounds like an attempt to get Russian units to not watch their rear.
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