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ADP is the largest payroll processor in the world. It claims 810,000 customers in 140 global locations. It has stiff competition in the US , especially for small- medium sized businesses.
Their projections, like BLS, are premature and are always revised as better information becomes available.
Trump often claimed both ADP and the BLS numbers were rigged when Obama was POTUS. These numbers suddenly became facts when Trump became POTUS, despite no change in methodology.
And when that happens, you and other Biden haters will undoubtedly come up with some other excuse to explain it all away.
well, I don't have the info from Trump years at my fingertips (could be quite similar), but there is this to consider from your first ADP link:
Quote:
Last month large companies showed they are well-poised to compete with higher wages and benefit offerings, and posted the strongest reading since the early days of the pandemic recovery,†said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Small companies lost ground as they continue to struggle to keep pace with the wages and benefits needed to attract a limited pool of qualified workers.â€
meanwhile, if you go to page 4, you see that small businesses actually shed jobs. I mean, as long as folks are comfortable with domination by large companies (those over 1,000 employees per chart) then there's no problem. Maybe it's a good thing - as noted in the quote before, large corps tend to have more benefits than small, which allow employees to be well-covered and reduce the need for Government services.
LONG RANGE SUMMARY: The current rate of 62% is well below the peak of 67% we hit in 2000.
ROOT CAUSE: aging population so more retirees + retired workers not being replaced due to low birth rates + globalization + tech advances
NEAR TERM PROJECTION: Slight upwards trend from 62.2% towards 63%, then flatlining.
yes, with Boomers retiring and a large % of population, the total employed would be lower. If I recall correctly, the LFPR measures 18-65, which really is a key indicator.
Since January 2021 the surge in demand for oil, goods, etc. has seen prices escalate as supply could not keep up with demand. Shouldn't we have seen a slow down by now. It's been a year of escalating prices.
any attempt to tie what is going on to Biden v Trump falls flat.
Unless one can specifically make the case for what measures Biden has undertaken that would have been job creation.
950,000 Americans died of Covid. Many have long Covid and are unable to work.
Baby boomers are retiring in large numbers. Covid caused a lot of people to retire but even without Covid the wave of retirements of baby boomers was predicted for a long time.
Lots of job openings and one of the reasons is that the dead as well as the retired left the work force.
since last I checked, 75%+ of the deaths claimed by Covid were > 65, then no, they weren't largely in the work force.
Not many people have actual physical long Covid that physically keeps them from working.
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