Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
This number you’re alluding to is from one study [Jama]. As you know, studies say different things, so let’s not assume this study is fact. Underlying it are many assumptions and it’s very simplistic- a 1st year graduate student could do it in a few hours. All they did was take excess deaths and subtract reported COVID deaths. They never independently verified medical certificates. As you know, I’m not a big believer in the accuracy of reported COVID deaths.
The BMJ had a study, albeit for the UK, that was much more rigorous. There they found that only 1/3 of the excess deaths in the UK could be explained by COVID. The rest were likely the result of “pandemic protocols” eg lockdowns.
Now, the flip side, did lockdowns save anyone? We know they killed quite a few! A John Hopkins conclusion was basically no. Implementing lockdowns (the kind we had in the USA not Chinese style lockdowns!) saved no more than 5% of people.
Of course all the deaths were not thoroughly investigated. But early on in the Pandemic if you tested positive for Covid and died within a few weeks it was almost always FROM Covid, not WITH. And this is a very important generalization.
Our numbers are crude, and only give us broad general information. But using another country's data for comparison is no good idea. As the BMJ showed, different countries have experienced very different numbers of excess deaths.
In our town we had several hundred Covid deaths. Where we might have a handful of Influenza deaths. And although I was certainly not privy to anywhere near all those cases, the local docs I speak to were not misdiagnosing a significant number of cases. And had no reason to inflate numbers. Here and there we did see some unfortunate deaths as they relate to non-Covid excess. But not in the ballpark of Covid.
I can't explain these spikes with excess Pandemic protocol deaths.
I meant how a patient would tell apart COVID pneumonia from Influenza caused pneumonia (or any cause). Pneumonia I guess feels like a pneumonia, my guess as I never had it. But obviously medical professionals can just test for a specific virus/bacteria/whatever to determine the cause.
I have had pneumonia many times. They never did any tests to determine the cause. I don't think they test for that with anyone. They just treat the pneumonia in people.
Since access to inpatient treatment would be decreased during surges, as well as reluctance to seek care, deaths from all other causes would increase during these surges.
Did you know that death from Diabetes surged by 17% from 2019 to 2020?
I have had pneumonia many times. They never did any tests to determine the cause. I don't think they test for that with anyone. They just treat the pneumonia in people.
Many times they don't, depending on the patient and clinical situation. But this can be a sign of an incomplete and possibly insufficient medical work up.
Commonly we do sputum exams and cultures. Sometimes related blood work.
Since access to inpatient treatment would be decreased during surges, as well as reluctance to seek care, deaths from all other causes would increase during these surges.
Did you know that death from Diabetes surged by 17% from 2019 to 2020?
They did. 1/4 - 1/3 excess US deaths in 2020 were non-Covid related. And Cardiac and diabetes were well up there.
But these deaths don't tend to peak and valley following the influx of new and dangerous airborne infectious agents.
They did. 1/4 - 1/3 excess US deaths in 2020 were non-Covid related. And Cardiac and diabetes were well up there.
But these deaths don't tend to peak and valley following the influx of new and dangerous airborne infectious agents.
They actually do.
1. Cases begin to rise, media spreads fear
2. Hospitals shut down a lot of none COVID related care regulating patients to outpatient care
3. Patients are afraid to go to hospitals
4. Longer this goes on more deaths pile on
5. Cases drop, fear drops, hospitals open up to inpatient care
6. Excess deaths from pandemic protocols drop
1. Cases begin to rise, media spreads fear
2. Hospitals shut down a lot of none COVID related care regulating patients to outpatient care
3. Patients are afraid to go to hospitals
4. Longer this goes on more deaths pile on
5. Cases drop, fear drops, hospitals open up to inpatient care
6. Excess deaths from pandemic protocols drop
A wave tracking cases.
Non-Covid excess deaths rise in a more gradual pattern. We don't see such obvious grouping as with a novel airborne infectious disease moving from region to region.
If you are trying to suggest that the bulk of 2020 excess deaths were non-Covid, I will continue to disagree with you.
Non-Covid excess deaths rise in a more gradual pattern. We don't see such obvious grouping as with a novel airborne infectious disease moving from region to region.
Any evidence for this?
If you shut down hospitals and go to outpatient care, and if patients are afraid to go to the hospital for a specific time period- you will get deaths spike in a wave like pattern for that period. All the people reliant on modern medicine to keep them alive will die - well many of them.
You’re right though that this is actually the tip of the iceberg. These pandemic protocols will drive excess deaths for decades to come. This will far eclipse the QOY lost from immediate deaths of chronically ill patients.
You won’t see this show up in CDC’s methodology for calculating excess deaths as they use 5 year rolling averages.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
