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I explained in post #31 how population density does not correlate for COVID spread. You'd want to use average intimate personal contacts, data of which I don't know if exists but would be interesting to see for sure.
Your post #31 didn't take into account the typical "yuppie" who Zooms in NYC all day is almost 100% guaranteed to live in a multi-unit high rise apartment building with shared HVAC, elevators, etc. There were some studies done early on in the pandemic showing spread in apartment buildings do to shared HVAC and common areas to get in and out of the apartments. So I don't think your #31 post really does anything to prove that those living in NYC had less exposure than a family with kids in South Dakota.
Your post #31 didn't take into account the typical "yuppie" who Zooms in NYC all day is almost 100% guaranteed to live in a multi-unit high rise apartment building with shared HVAC, elevators, etc. There were some studies done early on in the pandemic showing spread in apartment buildings do to shared HVAC and common areas to get in and out of the apartments. So I don't think your #31 post really does anything to prove that those living in NYC had less exposure than a family with kids in South Dakota.
Ok, if you want to adjust for population density, you need to know the effect. What is the effect? Effect is easily calculated for age and obesity and other conditions, but I've seen no measure where population density is predictive.
Ok, if you want to adjust for population density, you need to know the effect. What is the effect? Effect is easily calculated for age and obesity and other conditions, but I've seen no measure where population density is predictive.
Just throwing out a point that those in NYC don't necessarily have limited contact holed up in their apartments. That type of living, in a large building, in and off itself can create excess exposures that could rival or exceed a family who has no restrictions on them socialness. Your post seemed to indicate that they, the New York apartment dwellers based on lifestye, were protected more from exposures, such as I am in my single family home (yet living in a very dense area).
Just throwing out a point that those in NYC don't necessarily have limited contact holed up in their apartments. That type of living, in a large building, in and off itself can create excess exposures that could rival or exceed a family who has no restrictions on them socialness. Your post seemed to indicate that they, the New York apartment dwellers based on lifestye, were protected more from exposures, such as I am in my single family home (yet living in a very dense area).
I was trying to illustrate that it's not population density but avg person contacts that matter. Density is often used as a crude substitute for that number, since density is so easy to calculate but avg person contacts, not so much.
I was trying to illustrate that it's not population density but avg person contacts that matter. Density is often used as a crude substitute for that number, since density is so easy to calculate but avg person contacts, not so much.
They would use the calculated R0 for that area. It can vary greatly.
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They would use the calculated R0 for that area. It can vary greatly.
R0 is a measure of virus transmission in a completely immune naive population. You probably mean R, either way these are not population density dependent.
I was trying to illustrate that it's not population density but avg person contacts that matter. Density is often used as a crude substitute for that number, since density is so easy to calculate but avg person contacts, not so much.
I got it. Really I'm not trying argue. I agree with you on average person contacts wholeheartedly. I've personally seen that theory in action with COVID infections in people I know. I guess I was simply trying to correct the misperception that a person in NYC living in a apartment and Zooming has less contacts. Consciously, he/she may believe that. But just the actual nature of living in NYC is high risk because of the type of housing there that the majority of people live in.
Otherwise, absolutely. I live in the DC area but during the pandemic, I sat safely in my single family home and teleworked. My exposures were minimal, so population density wasn't really a variable for me.
R0 is a measure of virus transmission in a completely immune naive population. You probably mean R, either way these are not population density dependent.
Well, here is data on the R0 of omicron in the US, so a non-completely naive population.
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