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Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
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Fertility decline goes across lines of religion, race, and culture. Biggest theme since to be more people living in cities reduces fertility. In a city children are a burden and liability. In a rural areas they help out on the farm and don't require constant supervision due to kidnapping and random sexual predators.
Absolutely correct. The world population has not decreased.
But it will. it does not really take a math degree to see we are very close to nosing over and witnessing a global population decrease. All it takes is a look at TFR. The decrease in TFR has been well researched and well documented.
You banal reply of "Oh, well; it'll increase some day" is common, but no demographer or sociologist has said that.
Your observation that it has never happened before is a little puzzling. This is a discussion of future population.
FWIW, many cultures have disappeared. No one can say why, so you cannot declare it is not because of a low birth rate that no longer supported the population. That very well could have been the problem.
I find the assumption that a future decreasing population is going to cause humans to become extinct or cause a collapse in the world economy and that people are worried about social security or who is going to care for the elderly puzzling. I can speculate on many things that have never happened before but without some evidence that if X happens it will lead to Y, it is merely a guess, a speculation, a fantasy.
If the handful of cultures that disappeared was due to a decrease of fertility rate overtime (which is highly unlikely) it apparently was not a devastating event for humanity.
BTW I'm not the one who said the population will increase one day.
I look at this from an American centric view. In my 62 years on this earth, the US population has gone from roughly 183 million to over 331 million. An increase of 147+ million. So it almost doubled.
Living on the east coast, it's easy to see that many areas are at max population capacity. Driving on interstates near urban areas had been a nightmare for decades. The NJSP & DC Beltway are 2 examples of roadways that experience rush hour gridlock and long snarls due to accidents. I bet drivers on those roads are glad the replacement rate isn't up in the 5s.
The covid virus had the potential to make a significant adjustment to the world's population. While noteworthy, the demise of an additional 6 million people is frightening, it's miniscule in relationship to the total world population.
So I'll continue to golf clap while worldwide birth rates decline. But in the big picture, it doesn't personally affect me very much.
I think capitalism can exist in a steady state economy. Bartering is a form of capitalism and it flourishes in small societies. I think it is the wealthy elites who can't handle a steady state economy. Bartering does not provide any get rich mechanisms, everyone who produces something of value for a bartering system is generally at the same ecomonic level as everyone else in the system.
Yeah makes sense.
The wealthy will tap ai and robotics, but will this satiate them? They will have to get used to the idea that there won’t be masses of poor to compare themselves against and exploit.
Peak global population imo will likely arrive during the 2050’s. Though it will be uneven. Africa will be the last place for above 2.1 fertility, but I have a feeling the drop for them will be even more precipitous than Asia.
The covid virus had the potential to make a significant adjustment to the world's population. While noteworthy, the demise of an additional 6 million people is frightening, it's miniscule in relationship to the total world population.
Yeah, I thought the same about the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami where 227,898 died, but in the grand scheme of things, while that number seems like a lot (I guess for a single day it does), on average, 150,000 people die each day around the world.
I find the assumption that a future decreasing population is going to cause humans to become extinct or cause a collapse in the world economy and that people are worried about social security or who is going to care for the elderly puzzling............
That's because you have not studied the subject.
But no one said humans are going to become extinct. What was said is the population decrease will never stop. What that means is the human population will decrease by 1/2 about every 75 years. I leave it up to you to calculate the human population in 300 years. Or 600. That's still plenty of people. It's a matter of where most of them will live. Temperate climates do best.
Actually, for the record, I believe there will be an industrial collapse at some point as fewer and fewer goods and services are needed worldwide. But it may or may not look ugly. Might be perfectly fine; everyone gets what they need.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2mares
BTW I'm not the one who said the population will increase one day.
Well..... It's either gotta increase or decrease, doesn't it? I mean unless Central Command dictates orders regarding how many children you are required to have
(OK. THAT ain't gonna happen)
That's because you have not studied the subject.
But no one said humans are going to become extinct. What was said is the population decrease will never stop. What that means is the human population will decrease by 1/2 about every 75 years.
Your comments on this topic are ridiculous. There is no global population decrease, and no prospect of one in our lifetimes barring unexpected catastrophe.
Your comments on this topic are ridiculous. There is no global population decrease, and no prospect of one in our lifetimes barring unexpected catastrophe.
You know nothing about a well researched topic and refuse to apply the simple math.
No one is talking about a population decrease that is already happening.
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