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Yes. That's what I think.
Not only do I think that, every geopolitical politics professional in the world shares that opinion.
China will not - they cannot, for that matter - "provide Russia with what it needs". I know you have been told that by journalists, but it cannot be so. China's biggest import?.... Electrical equipment and machinery; so that's not going to be provided for Russia, is it. And so it goes. China imports lots and lots of things, so they don't have "extra" to provide to Russia. So they can't.
But would they, if they could?........... No. China imports 500B from USA, and 70B from Russia. China is not willing to see USA close the door economically. The two countries countries are interdependent. Things are going to get bad enough in China in the coming decades as its population collapses. They will not be willing to hasten their demise.
Again...I'm far from an expert on this, but they said the same thing in 2014. They seem to have a higher tolerance for economic disruption.
I'm not someone that's swallowed a bunch of Russian propoganda, and I support anything and everything the international community can do in the interest of Ukraine...but I think that the "these sanctions will get em" mentality may be overly optimistic.
Seems that the International Criminal Court, ICC, has refused to call Russia's SMO an aggression.
By the way, it was Ukrainian foreign minister Kuleba that said that, not Russians.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JONOV
Again...I'm far from an expert on this,...but I think that the "these sanctions will get em" mentality may be overly optimistic.
With the disinformation Russia media feeds it's populace, that assures they truly believe this is an "Everyone against them" situation which builds their national unity, encourages more stamina, bitterness (evil intent) towards the west.
Sanctions are quite irrelevant to Russia (as a whole).
It curtails their global commerce (whch was not huge).
Sanctions will not win or effectively slow the war.
We have history books to clearly show what sanctions do. (Irritate the already irritable... Japan, Germany 1939+)
Long term, sanctions are very counterproductive. (Iran, Cuba, Venezuela...)
Yep. And they weren't well-off to begin with. Russia had an opportunity in the 1990s to right the economic ship and become a wealthy developed nation. They had all the ingredients in terms of natural resources, manufacturing capability, and a reasonably educated workforce.
But because Russian leadership is corrupt down to its marrow, it became a kleptocracy instead, basically what would happen if the Mafia ran a country.
Actually, the US economists who were advising Yeltsin, and recommended the "shock therapy" that was instituted, acknowledged that the theft of funds was their fault, for the way they set up the economic recovery program. Harvard economist Jeffrey Sachs explained what went wrong in his book, "The End of Poverty".
The book presents case studies from economic development plans he designed for various countries, a different chapter for each country, and Russia was one of the examples. Poland after the USSR crashed got its own chapter as well. Poland fared much better, and Sachs explains why. He and his colleagues set up Poland's recovery completely differently. In the Russia case, they inadvertently built in unforeseen incentives for the top dogs to siphon the aid money out of the country to foreign banks. Oops.
Actually, the US economists who were advising Yeltsin, and recommended the "shock therapy" that was instituted, acknowledged that the theft of funds was their fault,
... In the Russia case, they inadvertently built in unforeseen incentives for the top dogs to siphon the aid money out of the country to foreign banks. Oops.
Yes, the bumbling "advice" was counterproductive first in its risibly poor quality, and second, in its rampant condescension and squandering of good will. But even were the advice hypothetically to have been excellent and wise, it is doubtful that the outcome would have been much better. Failure was inherent in centuries of how Russia was governed. Successive governments tried to make improvement; all failed.
Poland succeeded where Russia failed, not necessarily because Poland received better advice, but because the soil into which that advice was planted, so to speak, was more fecund. Let's not forget that before Communism, before WW2, in say 1900, the Polish peasant was much more prosperous, much more secure in his person and property, than the Russian peasant. Likewise in Germany or the Baltics. Russia was singularly backward and poorly governed, on par with the "-stans" and other nations that today we regard in the most charitable sense as being "developing".
So when the Cold War ended, most of Eastern Europe was as it were spring-loaded to recover from the stresses and depredations of the mid 20th century. Russia in contrast had no prior time of prosperity, to be recaptured. If upon reunion of West Germany and East Germany, the latter needed to be rebuilt, ... in Russia there was no "re-" to the building. Instead of rebuilding, it would be just... building. To get Dresden and Leipzig back into the West, it was necessary to undo 1933-1989. To do the same to Leningrad or Moscow, it would have been necessary to undo 9 or 10 centuries (and yes, I realize that St. Petersburg was only founded in 1703).
1900 was a rather tough time to be Polish. Pretty much the 1880's on were rather harsh. But the point is valid. Go back a bit further and you'll see that Poland-Ukraine were aligned in a country referred to as the Commonwealth. When the rest of the world was placing their monarchs as little Gods, Poland was still trucking along with their....quite imperfect...democratic Seljm. (maybe misspelled). Tough neighborhood though. Russia to the East, Prussia to the West. Austria Hungary to the South and Sweden/Denmark were fans of invading once in awhile. The whole country disappeared from the maps for about 150 years.
But, back to point, they still maintained heritage and identity....and were able to call upon these when finally given a chance.
Trying to figure it out. SMO must mean So Much Offal?
Seriously guys, those who use that term lose whatever credibility you had before.
Its a war.
Lol, I just ignore the obvious nutjob. Why bother listening to somebody who literally acts like a troll and says something that is counter to every fact known.
Russian forces are likely using Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to play on Western fears of a nuclear disaster in Ukraine, likely in an effort to degrade Western will to provide military support to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi said on August 3 that Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which is currently occupied by Russian forces, is “completely out of control” and that “every principle of nuclear safety has been violated” at the plant.[1] He warned that Russian forces are not respecting the physical integrity of the plant and pleaded with Russia and Ukraine to quickly facilitate a visit of IAEA monitors to the complex. Russian Zaporizhia Occupation Administration Head Evgeniy Balitskyi responded that the IAEA was welcome at the plant: “We are ready to show how the Russian military guards it today, and how Ukraine, which receives weapons from the West, uses these weapons, including drones, to attack the nuclear plant, acting like a monkey with a grenade.”[2] Russian officials are framing Ukraine as irresponsibly using Western-provided weapons and risking nuclear disaster to dissuade Western and other allied states from providing additional military support to Ukraine’s looming southern counteroffensive.
Russian forces likely set fire to the prison complex holding Ukrainian POWs in occupied Donetsk Oblast but blamed Ukraine for an alleged precision strike using Western-supplied military equipment, likely to deter additional Western military support to Ukraine.
The Kremlin is likely continuing efforts to leverage its relationship with Tehran in order to receive drones for use in Ukraine.
The Russian Defense Ministry has altered the focus of its reporting after the fall of Lysychansk, likely to orient on narratives that resonate positively with milbloggers and war correspondents rather than those that draw criticism from that community.
Key Takeaways
Quote:
Russian forces are likely using Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to play on Western fears of a nuclear disaster in Ukraine, attempting to thereby degrade the will of Western powers to provide military support to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Russian forces likely set fire to the prison complex holding Ukrainian POWs in occupied Donetsk Oblast but blamed Ukraine for an alleged precision strike using Western-supplied military equipment, likely to increase US hesitancy to continue providing HIMARS to Ukraine.
Moscow is likely continuing efforts to leverage its relationship with Tehran in order to secure drones for use in Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack northwest of Slovyansk and continued efforts to advance on Bakhmut from the northeast, east, and southeast.
Russian forces are prioritizing frontal assaults on Avdiivka and failed to gain ground in Pisky.
Russian forces are reportedly forming a strike group to prevent Ukrainian counteroffensives in northern Kherson Oblast or counterattack against them.
Russian occupation authorities may allow both in-person and online voting in upcoming pseudo-referenda on the annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory into Russia, enabling more straightforward Russian vote rigging.
Activity in Russian-occupied Areas
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Russian occupation authorities may allow both in-person and online voting in upcoming pseudo-referenda on the annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory into Russia, enabling more straightforward Russian vote rigging. The Ukrainian Mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, announced on August 2 that Russian occupation forces plan to allow “voting from home” in the upcoming faux referendum that Russia will use to annex occupied Ukrainian territories.[43] Fedorov warned that occupation forces are threatening to deport Ukrainians who vote against the sham referendum. Ukrainian news outlet Strana previously reported on July 29 that the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) “Public Headquarters of the Referendum” announced it will be possible to vote online in the referendum to join Russia.[44] The Kremlin introduced online voting to some regional Russian elections in 2021 and spread it to the entire country in March 2022, likely to enable Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party to more easily pad their votes and to limit the efficacy of election observers.[45] Russian opposition politicians and elections observers reported major discrepancies between online votes and paper ballots in areas where online voting was tested in 2021, suggesting that the Kremlin added online votes to their tally whenever their candidates needed a boost. Online voting in occupied Ukrainian territories would be even more farcical—many civilians in occupied areas have no access to electricity or running water, let alone to the internet.
Russian occupation authorities are continuing to set conditions for long-term Russian control of occupied Ukrainian territories. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin met with the head of the Russian-appointed head of the Zaporizhia Occupation Administration, Evgeniy Balitskyi, on August 3 to discuss a comprehensive, three-year plan to rebuild roads in Zaporizhia Oblast and to discuss increasing Russian financing of the region.[46] Balitskyi separately announced that occupation authorities are extending the deadline for local businesspeople and legal entities to register for business licenses in the oblast, suggesting that many Ukrainian businesses are not cooperating with Russian occupiers.[47] Deputy Kherson Occupation Administration Head Ekaterina Gubareva announced on August 3 that occupation authorities will give Russian passports and citizenship to people in Kherson even if they do not have local residency permits or permanent addresses in the region.[48] Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on August 3 that Russian occupation forces are destroying Ukrainian telecommunications networks that refused to cooperate with the occupiers in Chornobaivka, Kherson Oblast.[49] GUR added that Russian occupation forces are attempting to force occupied populations to use Russian rubles instead of Ukrainian hryvnyas by destroying ATMs that process hryvnya transactions.
Again...I'm far from an expert on this, but they said the same thing in 2014. They seem to have a higher tolerance for economic disruption..........
No. They did not.
No country has ever in history been sanctioned the way Russia has this year. Sanctions in the past were nothing compared to this.
Venezuela is poor because of sanctions. Cuba. North Korea. Iran. Those countries can barely get by and certainly are not capable of cause international trouble and the hope is Russia will join the ranks of permanently impoverished countries. We're not talking about "economic disruption". We're talking about economic destruction from which they will never recover.
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