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Old 05-25-2022, 06:18 PM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
9,005 posts, read 13,120,634 times
Reputation: 9489

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Quote:
Cede Territory to End Ukraine War
Back in 2014, I had the impression that the Russians considered Crimea under their nuclear umbrella.

Now I have the impression that the Russians consider, or will very soon, the Kherson, Zaporizhia (at least the southern part) Luhansk, and Donetsk regions under their nuclear umbrella. Not sure about Kharkiv, Nikolaev, and Odessa.

The NATO/EU countries would have to run the risk of triggering that umbrella with respect to those five regions, maybe eight, but not much more: I do not have the impression that the Russians care about western/interior Ukraine, willing to leave that to the Poles and maybe some other central European countries, if they do it tactfully.

Perhaps that is what Mr Kissinger is referring to.

If NATO/EU countries refuse to legally, or in some other overt way, recognize a Russian nuclear umbrella over the Azov/Black Sea littoral and Donbass, I do not have the impression that such refusal would dissuade the Russians.

More than that, I don’t have the impression that the Russians are hankering to restore commercial relations with EU countries as before, and that would suit the Americans just as well.


I have read that a certain Taiwanese company (maybe two) manufactures a certain type of microchip only 5 nanometers thick, the only one of its kind in the world.

Interesting.

Finally, I am not convinced that policymakers in NATO/EU countries are unwilling to trigger Russia’s nuclear umbrella; on the contrary not insignificant chance that some of them are willing to risk it.

US data collection and analysis firm Palantir puts the risk of nuclear war at 20-30%.

That’s not insignificant.

Good Luck!
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Old 05-25-2022, 06:42 PM
 
44,208 posts, read 22,841,357 times
Reputation: 26783
Quote:
Originally Posted by andywire View Post
Ukraine has been fighting back. But there is only so much they can do so long as the rest of Europe is too cowardly to do the right thing.
Huh? Europe has been sending assistance hand over fist. This is from memory:
  • France: MILAN anti-armor missiles, CAESAR howitzers - the latter is very modern and highly unpleasant.
  • Germany: Late start, but Stingers, Gepard AA guns, PzH 2000 howitzers - the latter, again, very capable.
  • The UK: Long list. Noticeably, Starstreak, Javelin, NLAW.
  • Poland: Tanks. Hundreds, reportedly. T-72s, which the Ukrainians are already familiar with. And some hush-hush deal with Mig-29s, too.

Smaller countries haven't been found wanting. Sweden - 10,000(!) AT4 anti-armor weapons. Lithuania - anything they can spare, really. Even tiny Denmark is now offering Harpoon anti-shipping missiles on top of the light anti-armor rockets already shipped. The Netherlands, Belgium - I think it's fair to say that Europe is stepping up here.

That's to say nothing of how every country that can is weaning itself of Russian petro as fast as possible.

Quote:
Ukraine also had the opportunity to join NATO, in which case the NATO nations would be obligated to help. I believe they turned it down.
They did no such thing. One of the half-baked excuses Russia came up with was that Ukraine might join NATO.
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Old 05-25-2022, 08:51 PM
 
17,508 posts, read 23,756,183 times
Reputation: 19291
Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
Back in 2014, I had the impression that the Russians considered Crimea under their nuclear umbrella.

Now I have the impression that the Russians consider, or will very soon, the Kherson, Zaporizhia (at least the southern part) Luhansk, and Donetsk regions under their nuclear umbrella. Not sure about Kharkiv, Nikolaev, and Odessa.

There is a superb anti missile Moscow defense system.
It's radius is roughly straight line from Moscow to Tallin.
Caveat to that system is, ANY missile that is WITHIN that radius is not seen by that defense system. Only ones OUTSIDE of it.

Now, take a ruler, measure that distance and draw circle. Got some of Finland into it, didn't you? Ukraine.

Hence, some red lines can not be allowed to be crossed. CAN NOT. Particularly, by a country that was under, more or less, permanent state of attack by West, for about 5 hundred years and, knows very well, how much lives it may cost, to give west slack.
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Old 05-25-2022, 08:56 PM
 
44,208 posts, read 22,841,357 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
There is a superb anti missile Moscow defense system.
There was a lot of Russian military kit that was considered "superb" up until about 3 months ago.

But if you set out to make the point that the Muscovites are quite happy dropping a few tens of thousands of farmers' kids into the meat grinder for Moscow's safety - well done. I don't think anyone will disagree.
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Old 05-25-2022, 08:58 PM
 
Location: Elysium
10,463 posts, read 6,252,863 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TimTheEnchanter View Post
Who?
The US Secretary of State generally creditied with getting the US and China talking as China went from a Soviet ally to a more self interested swing vote nation. There was also the post Yom Kippur War period as the Arabs and Israel went into a cease fire period as the way was paved for Israel to give back the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt which was captured in the 6 day War.
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Old 05-25-2022, 09:40 PM
 
69,932 posts, read 52,501,616 times
Reputation: 43085
Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
Here's something, no one without the know, will understand here.
You need to know, WHY that war actually started. The real reason, not spoken of.
And, why it is exactly Mr Kissinger, a man with tremendous respect and political weight, speaking of splitting Ukraine and giving to Cesar, what's Cesar's.

Or, for example, why one Yakov Kedmi is chastising - openly, on central Russian political program - Russian troops for moving too slowly to capture Odessa and certain else SE Ukraine regions.
Or, why one Zelensky offered Western Ukraine to Poland.

When you know the real reason behind this, then, what Henry says, only makes sense. The Plan is running behind its timetable as, according to the same Plan, other gears of it already started moving and it all needs to start falling into its schedule. And heavy-s like Kissinger and Soros are to remind the puppets to giddy up.
Doesn't matter what old man Kissinger says...or your other distractions.

The Ukrainians are going to keep bleeding you dry as they themselves suffer greatly.
They already forced Russia to try to take a much smaller bite due to brutal losses.

You're locked in a war of attrition with an imbalance in tech and will to fight.

That's a recipe for a meat grinder of an affair.

Anyway, that's my prediction.

Russia wants what it wants, Ukraine can't trust that if peace follows that Russia won't be back in 5 years.
That's a pretty honest assesment of the forseeable future. Russia will certainly suffer less just trying to take a smaller bite but I make no predictions given their poor performance to date.
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Old 05-28-2022, 07:05 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
6,322 posts, read 1,712,055 times
Reputation: 2902
Default Russia Invades Ukraine 2

Todays Update

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...essment-may-28

Quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin is inflicting unspeakable suffering on Ukrainians and demanding horrible sacrifices of his own people in an effort to seize a city that does not merit the cost, even for him.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine that aimed to seize and occupy the entire country has become a desperate and bloody offensive to capture a single city in the east while defending important but limited gains in the south and east.

When the Battle of Severodonetsk ends, regardless of which side holds the city, the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will likely have culminated, giving Ukraine the chance to restart its operational-level counteroffensives to push Russian forces back.

Moderator cut: copyright violation
Ukrainian partisan activity continues to impose costs on Russian occupation forces in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.

This is one of the many areas to pay close attention to. Partisans can wreak alot of havoc on Russian forces in occupied territories.

Last edited by Ibginnie; 05-29-2022 at 09:11 AM..
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Old 05-28-2022, 07:22 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
6,322 posts, read 1,712,055 times
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I wonder what the over/under is for this guy making it to his next birthday?

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/st...11271967862784

Quote:
Russian forces are likely aware of their lack of control over the southern oblasts. Russian collaborationist mayor of Enerhodar, Ruslan Kirpichev, reportedly fortified the entrance to his apartment due to partisan activity.
What do they mean by fortified?? is it sealed with reinforced concrete??
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Old 05-28-2022, 08:36 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
22,311 posts, read 13,832,822 times
Reputation: 32782
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnBoy64 View Post
That is about the wildest report I can imagine. It does not mince words.
This phrase....When the Battle of Severodonetsk ends, regardless of which side holds the city, the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will likely have culminated..
General Ben Hodges used a similar phrase, but he thought the Russian effort would culminate a lot sooner than it has. His thinking was, Russia will have thrown everything they care to at the objective and will simply run out of stuff to throw.
He was obviously wrong, but only by the time frame. You really have to start asking yourself just how much stuff Russia had stockpiled. "Stuff", in this case, means people and material.
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Old 05-28-2022, 09:02 PM
Status: "Smash Communism" (set 11 days ago)
 
Location: Metro Detroit, Michigan
24,344 posts, read 20,169,300 times
Reputation: 24191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
That is about the wildest report I can imagine. It does not mince words.
This phrase....When the Battle of Severodonetsk ends, regardless of which side holds the city, the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will likely have culminated..
General Ben Hodges used a similar phrase, but he thought the Russian effort would culminate a lot sooner than it has. His thinking was, Russia will have thrown everything they care to at the objective and will simply run out of stuff to throw.
He was obviously wrong, but only by the time frame. You really have to start asking yourself just how much stuff Russia had stockpiled. "Stuff", in this case, means people and material.



They keep saying that. But the Russo-Ukrainian war has been dragging on since 2014. Putin may very well be dead before this thing concludes. If I had to guess, I'd say Putin started by throwing all his obsolete equipment and least well trained troops on the field to do the bulk of the fighting and dying. Having burned through that, then he likely starts committing the better equipment, after his opposition has become beaten down and demoralized. The factories in Russia did not turn off just because there is a war. But Ukraine is very much dependent on the west to keep feeding it's military machine. I tend to believe Putin is saving a lot of his resources and military for if and when other European powers or even the USA joins in.


They also keep saying Putin's war machine will lose effectiveness over time due to sanctions, shortages, etc. I have no idea what the situation is, but I'm not going to pretend CNN or other western propaganda outlets are going to tell me the truth either. The fact is, Putin knew all these obstacles were coming, and he likely did something to prepare for them... Like making his economy and war machine "sanction proof" like he said he would do. The ruble is stronger than it's been in decades and oil revenues have shot up 50% with no shortage of buyers willing to pay rubles. I'm sure there are shortages of some things, but Russia's equipment is usually pretty simple and unsophisticated... Perfect if you anticipate future shortages of materials. Being so close to China and trading with them though, I doubt Russia is hurting for that many materials.


I keep hearing stories from bias media sources. I trust my two eyes. Russia/Putin is getting what he wants, against the western powers best efforts (thus far). Every time Putin takes another city, we get treated to puff pieces and all sorts of excuses. I don't like excuses. I like facts and results.
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