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No it doesn't. That is a technical definition. There are others, but to most people it means job losses. Q1 was negative because of massive inventory builds. Inventories are subtracted from GDP. Those bloated inventories are not getting sold as expected now and could end up putting downward pressure on prices. Target is dumping inventory at a loss, for one.
I have not seen any economist without a pronounced political agenda claim we are currently in recession. There is a group of economists that make the official pronouncement based on whatever criteria they use. Probably half or more of the prognosticators are now looking for one in late 2022 to early 2023 as the fed burdens the economy with rate increases.
like clockwork.
No, you're right - MOST economists won't declare it a recession until we get Q2 figures.
you continue to make this claim about "GDP was only down in Q1 because of inventory accumulation."
if this is not the chart you're using, by all means share.
Inventory has exceeded the 2019 peak for an entire year. Looking at that chart (the trend leading up to 2019), one might think inventory should be $2.2T. Instead it was $2.345T at the end of the quarter.
You're really attempting to assign GDP contraction to perhaps a $145B (7%) excess inventory level?? 7% excess is a "massive inventory buildup"?
Non discretionary expenses (gas, food and utilities) are up 37% from last year. Stop trying to dazzle us with your voodoo math to make your Mr. Potato Head look competent.
Those expenses are only part of costs. The only fair comparison is to look some standard metric and what the economics world agrees on is the CPI (for today numbers). The CPI is up 9.1% in mid-June which it is calculated vs the same time period last year.
As for my "voodoo" simple arithmetic calculation, it is to show that my statement that in the current month, declines in gas prices offset some cost rises in other areas. And that is factually accurate.
Take heart! Prices are going to be coming down. Shipping costs have dropped by a third over the past few weeks. Homeowners are cutting their asking prices. Fuel is down and the bosses aren't passing out raises out of fear of the looming recession (so wage price inflation is not a factor right now). Inflation could be 3%-ish by the election. The Dems are gonna win, LOL.
every stimmy check came with an income threshold. Even the majority of those who pay taxes don't understand economics very well, sadly.
Kind of. I'm not wealthy enough to have really seen a big benefit from the trickle up effect. While I didn't qualify for some, I did pick up some extra work from firms that were expanding due to booming business from the stimmies and U(B)I checks. Likewise I've lost some now with layoffs. Cyclical nature of business isn't new. Hopefully people were likewise cashing in on the gravy train before it left the station either by collecting the gravy directly or in the form of increased profit from all the people spending it.
Let's say you spend $1000 per month on food. Core inflation was around 6% the last two months. That's an annual rate, so divide by 12. You get 0.5% or, as a decimal, .005. Multiply that by the $1000 you spend for food and you get an inflationary increase of $5.00. So you spent five dollars more on the same basket of groceries as you did the month before.
Now, post above says they save $3.20 on a 16g tank of gas (although the national price has dropped far more than 20 cents/gallon). If they fill once a week, the savings is $3.20 x 4 or $12.80. That is 2 1/2 times the increased cost of the groceries. If the national average drop is gas prices is used then the "savings" is more than five times the increased cost of the groceries.
Inflation affects everyone differently. For example, rents which soared in this report have no impact on me at all as I own my house. But, there is no denying that falling gas prices (which were not included in this report because they mostly came too late) are helping offset cost increases in other areas.
May I suggest that when the Press Secretary job opens up at the White House you send over your resume. With the spin you tried to put on this you would fit right in.
I don't think I would be going out on too much of a limb by saying anyone paying $1000/month in groceries did not see their costs go up by only $5 month over month. It's more like $30-40. Of course over 6 months of "Month over Month" increase that $30-$40 turns into an additional $200, and there is really no end in sight. Personally, my average trip has gone up about 25%. some of my "core" items like meat or dairy have increased at higher rates.
"Falling Gas Prices"....LOL
Are these the same prices that just happen to still be almost double what they were just a few months ago in many areas? Sorry but I really don't think it is anything worth celebrating when gas prices drop about $0.30/gallon when I am still paying over $2/gallon more than I was a few months ago.
Microsoft, Rivian, Tesla, have already laid off workers, and Oracle is going to lay off Thousands.
Crypto's have laid off Thousands too.
More Big Gov't + Big Biz carnage to follow for the 99%
I work as a designer for an automotive OEM. We are starting to push dates back on several of our future programs. That isn't out of the ordinary, in itself, dates do get moved generally a few months or so. Rumor is we will be pushing them a year out...just waiting for then "pencil's down" email. I'm starting to get that nervous feeling. The last time I saw it like this, was in '08. Spent a year unemployed then.
The economy is hot. Near record job creation, near record low unemployment. Inflation is a symptom of an overheated economy not a weak one. The fed is about to take care of that though with a couple more rate increases that, while they won't do much to cool inflation directly, will eventually bring us to a recession with falling prices and job losses and bankruptcies, etc.
ROFLMAO.
Companies hiring people back that they had to lay off during Covid is not "job creation".
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