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It backs both nations into a corner, and puts the world at large at risk.
If Pelosi doesn't visit - whether or not it was the actual, original intention - Beijing will tout it as a victory over the US and use it as an excuse to ramp up pressure on Taiwan.
If Pelosi does visit, then there are two scenarios:
1) the CCP does nothing, and the rest of the world chortles at the whole thing. It would be another in a long string of China's bellicose and overdramatic statements that come to naught. It doesn't really change much of anything, in practice.
2) China does decide to shoot down Pelosi's plane, which would assuredly be considered an act of war by the US and its allies. If the US holds back in response in the spirit of not potentially getting engaged in what could very well become WW3, then China definitely is 100% emboldened to launch attacks against Taiwan and more aggressively assert its claims in the SCS and along its borders.
If the US does respond militarily, which is most likely what would happen, then the two strongest nations on earth would be at war. Not much else needs to be said. It would not be the end of the world, but the world we would be looking at by the end of the next month would be one drastically different from the one today.
Right now, with the issues China is facing at home with discontent over economic issues, and with Xi being challenged publicly by the Jiang Zemin camp, an act of aggression by China is perhaps more likely than it has been. He may see this as the last chance to assert his dominance over geopolitics and his status at home before things get out from under him... Bad for the world, but acceptable for a man with an ego as large as his.
Regardless of the military response, if China does shoot down Pelosi's plane, then it's economy and global standing will do into a deep crash. This would at once stymie many of Xi and the CCP's ambitions, while also making them more likely to act out further.
It backs both nations into a corner, and puts the world at large at risk.
If Pelosi doesn't visit - whether or not it was the actual, original intention - Beijing will tout it as a victory over the US and use it as an excuse to ramp up pressure on Taiwan.
If Pelosi does visit, then there are two scenarios:
1) the CCP does nothing, and the rest of the world chortles at the whole thing. It would be another in a long string of China's bellicose and overdramatic statements that come to naught. It doesn't really change much of anything, in practice.
2) China does decide to shoot down Pelosi's plane, which would assuredly be considered an act of war by the US and its allies. If the US holds back in response in the spirit of not potentially getting engaged in what could very well become WW3, then China definitely is 100% emboldened to launch attacks against Taiwan and more aggressively assert its claims in the SCS and along its borders.
If the US does respond militarily, which is most likely what would happen, then the two strongest nations on earth would be at war. Not much else needs to be said. It would not be the end of the world, but the world we would be looking at by the end of the next month would be one drastically different from the one today.
Right now, with the issues China is facing at home with discontent over economic issues, and with Xi being challenged publicly by the Jiang Zemin camp, an act of aggression by China is perhaps more likely than it has been. He may see this as the last chance to assert his dominance over geopolitics and his status at home before things get out from under him... Bad for the world, but acceptable for a man with an ego as large as his.
Regardless of the military response, if China does shoot down Pelosi's plane, then it's economy and global standing will do into a deep crash. This would at once stymie many of Xi and the CCP's ambitions, while also making them more likely to act out further.
Interesting, we may have just technically entered a recession, and we are facing record high inflation, yet as a country we are hyper focused on China's economic outlook almost to the point of praying they enter bad economic times. That is some real insecurity.
To the OP question, these stories are nothing more than click bait. Right now, China is framed as the enemy. There is money to be made publishing exaggerated narratives for public consumption. The ruling powers get to continue their efforts to weaponize public morality. Anyway, it's a myth, China did not threaten to shoot down Pelosi's plane, at least no actual decision-making person made the comment.
So China can dictate who can visit an independent country? That's so unreal.
Taiwan is not a independent country at least by U.N. standards. They consider it a territory but yeah Taiwan does operate as though it were a independent nation.
Taiwan is not a independent country at least by U.N. standards. They consider it a territory but yeah Taiwan does operate as though it were a independent nation.
The only reason Taiwan lacks formal recognition is because China keeps throwing tantrums at the mere mention of Taiwan.
KMT's Lee SL does not believe it will escalate in to a war.
Also the US are not ready to fight two wars simultaneously. See below video,
For whatever it is worth, P's flight would depart Clarke's airfield in the Phillipines arriving Taipei on the 4th, proceeding to Tokyo on the 5th.
It backs both nations into a corner, and puts the world at large at risk.
If Pelosi doesn't visit - whether or not it was the actual, original intention - Beijing will tout it as a victory over the US and use it as an excuse to ramp up pressure on Taiwan.
It probably won't change Beijing's plan too much. If they want to invade, they will invade regardless and they know that the political situation in the USA can change at any time, so there is no guarantee that the USA will let them ramp up pressure.
However, this will make Democrats look weak on China, leading to more China-hawks getting elected in the mid-term elections.
Quote:
1) the CCP does nothing, and the rest of the world chortles at the whole thing. It would be another in a long string of China's bellicose and overdramatic statements that come to naught. It doesn't really change much of anything, in practice.
2) China does decide to shoot down Pelosi's plane, which would assuredly be considered an act of war by the US and its allies. If the US holds back in response in the spirit of not potentially getting engaged in what could very well become WW3, then China definitely is 100% emboldened to launch attacks against Taiwan and more aggressively assert its claims in the SCS and along its borders.
In my opinion, the most likely scenario is that China does something, but nothing too serious. It will be similar to scenario 1, but less humiliating for Beijing.
Scenario 2 is a major escalation, but I don't think that will lead to war. America's allies have had enough with the war in Ukraine. They don't want another war unless it is absolutely necessary and avenging Pelosi is not absolutely necessary. Instead, it will be an excellent opportunity for the USA to gather support for sanctions against China.
This might make the USA look timid, but Biden strategy has been to avoid direct confrontation and quietly hit his enemies over and over again. And it looks like it is working, support behind NATO has never been stronger and he has build up coalitions such as AUKUS and QUAD that will certainly be strengthen if China shoots down Pelosi's plane.
Last edited by Camlon; 07-31-2022 at 02:10 AM..
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