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Did we ever really recover from the last recession in 2007/2008?
Considering the fact that the Federal Reserve and Central Banks around the world have kept interest rates at zero or even negative, it is arguable that the world economy never really got off the ground in the first place.
NO. They did so for the entire 8 years of Obama's two terms. The Fed raised rates for a year after Trump took office. We had the best economy in 50 years under Trump, in spite of the Fed trying to sabotage him.
Here's an interview on the now here recession, where regime economist (most are) Larry Summers is blaming inflation on Republicans, Putin and Jan6
Quote:
Inflation will be influenced by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine and the corresponding effects on oil prices, he added.
Summers also blamed Republicans for downplaying the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, saying that such rhetoric undermines the credibility of the U.S. government and thus “feeds through on inflation.”
oddly he makes no mention of money creation or govt spending
In spite of the political machinations to change the definition, we are in a recession
It's not really clear if we are in a recession, if you use a narrow definition we are but this is very different. Unemployment is decreasing, retail sales are up, corporations are doing rather well and outside of inflation the economy is doing well.
The definition is just a political tool at this point, the largest core issue is inflation and it's impact on purchasing power. Who cares what the definition is know the problems.
GDP wise we are in one. I think that it honestly was at least two years in the making. Back in the tail end of 2019, I remember on Mac & Gaydos (maybe it was officially Gaydos and Chad at the time) the PM drive-time news show on KTAR, that there was an inversion in the yield curve which typically means economic trouble. We then saw COVID pop up in December/January of 2020. We nearly were in one in 2020 and would have been sooner had it not been for pandemic relief both in our pockets through direct stimulus payments and the PPP loans for the businesses. Now we can debate how the PPP managed and if companies that got truly needed them.
The issue was it was an issue to slow the bleeding but not help clot the wound. The minute the bandage was removed, we didn't treat it. Supply chain issues we ignored never got any better and got worse. Gas prices were low due to low demand during the lockdowns and work at home but now that we are back and forth to work and leisure activities, demand is up while supply was down from the pandemic. That said the problem with gasoline in particular is the fact the gas companies are making obscene profits that are double to triple 2021's comparable quarters with the higher prices.
That said, while all this is going on, we have high employment. We can argue the Labor Force Participation Rate, but the fact is many people that want a job, have jobs. In fact, many are getting jobs, trying them, quitting and either going back to their old job or finding work at another place. Some even accept but find another and ghost the employer and leave them in the learch for the first day. It hasn't really been until the last month that we saw companies cut jobs. That said, they were still offset by job creation numbers that rivaled the initial post-COVID gains.
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