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Old 09-15-2022, 12:10 PM
 
5,958 posts, read 2,769,929 times
Reputation: 3457

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Once we get through the current "The Recession that's NOT a Recession!", how bad will the next Recession be?

2 year bonds highest since October 2007 (we all know what happened in 2008).
The 2s and 10s have been inverted.
Rapidly rising interest rates.
Stock market indices are down 15-27% this year.
Retail spending sluggish.
Real incomes are in decline.
Housing/RE prices are hitting a wall and are beginning to decline in many markets.
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Old 09-15-2022, 12:17 PM
 
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Also the 2s and 30s most inverted since the year 2000...

We all know what happened after that.
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Old 09-15-2022, 02:03 PM
 
5,958 posts, read 2,769,929 times
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S&P has closed at 3,901 today. January 1st it was at 4,796.

Where does it go from here? Hard crash or slow drowning? Or if you love Biden a booming economy?
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Old 09-15-2022, 02:20 PM
 
19,829 posts, read 18,122,835 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SAN_Man View Post
S&P has closed at 3,901 today. January 1st it was at 4,796.

Where does it go from here? Hard crash or slow drowning? Or if you love Biden a booming economy?
If the S&P closes below 3,900 I'd be prepared for 3,650 pretty quickly. Thank's Joe!
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Old 09-15-2022, 03:41 PM
 
574 posts, read 299,893 times
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Depends. If the Dems are in charge, nothing to see here. If the Repubs are in charge there will be wailing and screaming in the streets since we will be bound for the greatest depression ever seen.
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Old 09-15-2022, 03:57 PM
 
Location: Milwaukee
1,045 posts, read 2,005,757 times
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The Fed's soft landing is failing and investors are figuring this out. The Federal Reserve will have to continue to raise interest rates in order to control inflation. They have no choice since food inflation is 13%. It is not sustainable. The Fed will put the economy into a recession in order to curb inflation. The question is, how bad will it be?

My guess would be a stagnant stock market for the next year or so, a growing list of job cuts to the point where the United States will have negative job growth, wage increases well below inflation and negative GDP. This could last a year to a year and half or much worse. The bigger problem is the global economy, which is crashing in Europe due to high energy prices. This could make the situation in the US much worse.

The Democrat's are doing everything in their power to make this situation worse. My advice would be to do the exact opposite of everything they do. If I didn't know better, it almost seems they are doing this on purpose. Nobody can be this stupid.
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Old 09-15-2022, 04:30 PM
 
Location: North of Canada, but not the Arctic
21,163 posts, read 19,753,224 times
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Don't underestimate Biden's ability to eff things up.
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Old 09-15-2022, 04:33 PM
 
Location: Cape Cod
24,515 posts, read 17,265,170 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MSgtMike View Post
Depends. If the Dems are in charge, nothing to see here. If the Repubs are in charge there will be wailing and screaming in the streets since we will be bound for the greatest depression ever seen.



Exactly. If the Reps win in 2022 it will their fault that the country is circling the drain. IF a Rep wins the WH in 2024 forget about, the country is flushed down the toilet. If that Rep is Trump....... let the rioting and crime resume like we have never seen before.


The current recession under Republicans while be labelled a Depression.
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Old 09-15-2022, 06:57 PM
 
635 posts, read 1,167,162 times
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Consumers are getting through the inflation by charging it to their credit cards. Comapnies like Capital One will be done for.

But from what I am hearing about the grain shortages there will be mass social breakdown late winter into spring.
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Old 09-15-2022, 07:00 PM
 
1,108 posts, read 530,029 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EDS_ View Post
If the S&P closes below 3,900 I'd be prepared for 3,650 pretty quickly. Thank's Joe!
and jan 2019 it was a little over 2500- so its still way way up for those who did not panic. I say Cha Ching. Thanks Trump.
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