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Old 09-23-2022, 10:39 AM
 
Location: NYC
5,208 posts, read 4,669,806 times
Reputation: 7973

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Quote:
Originally Posted by lookingaround12345 View Post
Read again. They are mothballing planes and every segment domestic and worldwide is sharply down. The price rise isn't the big news in what I typed. Their report made the market crash it was so bleak. Inventories aren't moving, the supplies channels are winding way down, they are saying a big global recession is about to happen.
Sure, there are lots of indicators everywhere. And I generally believe a recession is coming. But I have not seen prices come down. Have you? Rental prices are at an all time high in NYC and yet demand is through the roof. Food prices are as expensive as ever and yet restaurants are full. There is a huge psychological component to inflation and I have not seen any changes yet. I'm sure the Fed hopes everyone would spend like there is a recession without having to cause one. It doesn't seem to be working so far.
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Old 09-23-2022, 11:27 AM
 
Location: West Virginia
5,044 posts, read 2,398,357 times
Reputation: 3590
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adhom View Post
Sure, there are lots of indicators everywhere. And I generally believe a recession is coming. But I have not seen prices come down. Have you? Rental prices are at an all time high in NYC and yet demand is through the roof. Food prices are as expensive as ever and yet restaurants are full. There is a huge psychological component to inflation and I have not seen any changes yet. I'm sure the Fed hopes everyone would spend like there is a recession without having to cause one. It doesn't seem to be working so far.
Gas while still relatively expensive is down as are many commodity prices from their peak. They aren't make more of it, so you can pretty much be assured it is demand destruction. Real estate is just starting to cool down. Stores like Walmart and Target are saying they have a glut of inventory and have stopped ordering and that's why Fed Ex is in bad shape lack of demand in every sector.
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Old 09-23-2022, 11:40 AM
 
Location: Texas
37,949 posts, read 17,859,151 times
Reputation: 10371
So when Trump was inflating the money supply with his handouts and increased spending it didn't matter much? When the interest rates were artificially low under Trump, it didn't matter much? Trumps polices brought us to the door, Bidens broke it down.

Where in the world were the conservatives back then?
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Old 09-23-2022, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Knoxville, TN
11,460 posts, read 5,989,164 times
Reputation: 22457
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adhom View Post
Recession or not, the Fed will keep raising rates until it achieves its desired inflation target of 2% per year.

Right now, due to supply constraints and robust consumer demand and savings, prices have not come down. Businesses still have a lot of room to charge whatever they want because the demand is still there. Sure, a lot of production costs have gone up from material, shipment and labor costs. However if I were a business and I look around and see people expecting higher prices, I will just keep raising my prices and gain a fatter margin of profits, as long as people keep buying.

Have you seen any evidence of demand dropping? I haven't.
Retail demand is dropping. Look at Walmart and Target. Even Amazon is down. It seems like it hasn't hit services and hospitality yet.

Also, a lot of people are trading down, buying budged versions of what they used to buy. So even if they buy the same amount, the prices are lower and profit is lower. One example is that a lot more people are buying generic grocery goods over name brand.
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Old 09-23-2022, 11:52 AM
 
Location: Knoxville, TN
11,460 posts, read 5,989,164 times
Reputation: 22457
Quote:
Originally Posted by NJ Brazen_3133 View Post
You quoted me. I stated how the rich wont be deter-ed at all by this. People should have been buying cheaper used cars for a long time now instead of putting themselves in massive debt. Running up credit card debt and then trying to pay off principal, and interest was never a good idea regardless of FED rates.
I misread your quoted post. Please disregard my response and sorry for the confusion.
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Old 09-23-2022, 11:53 AM
 
Location: West Virginia
5,044 posts, read 2,398,357 times
Reputation: 3590
Quote:
Originally Posted by Igor Blevin View Post
Retail demand is dropping. Look at Walmart and Target. Even Amazon is down. It seems like it hasn't hit services and hospitality yet.

Also, a lot of people are trading down, buying budged versions of what they used to buy. So even if they buy the same amount, the prices are lower and profit is lower. One example is that a lot more people are buying generic grocery goods over name brand.
Restaurants are noticing a change in their consumers as well. The restaurants might be full but what are people buying? If I go into Olive Garden and feast on free breadsticks it doesn't cut it.
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Old 09-23-2022, 11:56 AM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
7,288 posts, read 3,796,563 times
Reputation: 5264
Quote:
Originally Posted by lookingaround12345 View Post
Read again. They are mothballing planes and every segment domestic and worldwide is sharply down. The price rise isn't the big news in what I typed. Their report made the market crash it was so bleak. Inventories aren't moving, the supplies channels are winding way down, they are saying a big global recession is about to happen.
FedEx is down 42% for the year; UPS, 23.5%. A global recession is already here. FedEx relies mostly on international shipping, so they are being hurt worse than UPS. But in the end, they'll be okay. They survived all the previous recessions.
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Old 09-23-2022, 12:02 PM
 
Location: West Virginia
5,044 posts, read 2,398,357 times
Reputation: 3590
Quote:
Originally Posted by mattja View Post
FedEx is down 42% for the year; UPS, 23.5%. A global recession is already here. FedEx relies mostly on international shipping, so they are being hurt worse than UPS. But in the end, they'll be okay. They survived all the previous recessions.
Fed Ex is a great company but not a great stock. It has been dead money for ages. What I am getting at is not what is happening to them but what it means worldwide. People here should maybe take a look. The worldwide forecast is bleak in Europe it is even worse than here. So as they gave forward guidance we can determine life isn't going to be easier anytime soon.

I was replying to a post that said they didn't see any indication of a slow down. It is literally written in neon everywhere you look right now.
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Old 09-23-2022, 12:31 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
7,288 posts, read 3,796,563 times
Reputation: 5264
Quote:
Originally Posted by lookingaround12345 View Post
Fed Ex is a great company but not a great stock. It has been dead money for ages. What I am getting at is not what is happening to them but what it means worldwide. People here should maybe take a look. The worldwide forecast is bleak in Europe it is even worse than here. So as they gave forward guidance we can determine life isn't going to be easier anytime soon.

I was replying to a post that said they didn't see any indication of a slow down. It is literally written in neon everywhere you look right now.
The biggest mistake FedEx ever made was buying RPS.
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Old 09-23-2022, 12:34 PM
 
Location: new yawk zoo
8,688 posts, read 11,076,893 times
Reputation: 6363
hope dow drops 5,000 more by election day. Biden is probably still wondering how to get off that stage or tripping up stairs
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