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Old 10-16-2022, 04:37 PM
 
8,392 posts, read 7,354,917 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SanJuanStar View Post
RCP has the GOP gaining 2 Senate seats and control without Arizona. If the GOP wins Arizona that would be landslide night.
On October 7th, RCP had the Democrats holding Georgia and the Republicans flipping Arizona.

Now, RCP has the Republicans flipping Georgia (even though they project a run-off there) and the Democrats holding Arizona.

Everything is in flux, with a little over three weeks to November 8th.
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Old 10-16-2022, 04:41 PM
 
13,376 posts, read 4,227,870 times
Reputation: 5360
Quote:
Originally Posted by djmilf View Post
On October 7th, RCP had the Democrats holding Georgia and the Republicans flipping Arizona.

Now, RCP has the Republicans flipping Georgia (even though they project a run-off there) and the Democrats holding Arizona.

Everything is in flux, with a little over three weeks to November 8th.

The GOP only needs 1 seat to take control of the Senate. GA is a Democrat seat. The ace in the hole will be Nevada. We shall see.
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Old 10-16-2022, 04:47 PM
 
9,313 posts, read 16,622,517 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RowingFiend View Post
The Democrats are lucky. They can say stupid things all day long and their stupid voters don’t care.
because the benefits and checks keep flowing.
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Old 10-16-2022, 05:36 PM
 
13,673 posts, read 8,978,585 times
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Mr. Trump is certainly doing his part:



https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...p-jews-israel/


"Former president Donald Trump attacked American Jews in a post on his Truth Social platform on Sunday, saying Jews in the United States must “get their act together” and show more appreciation for the state of Israel “before it is too late."


However, I assume most people of the Jewish faith will ignore what he posts on his failing platform.



I still maintain that this election cannot be predicted by polls.


Example: the Kansas vote concerning allowing the state legislature to amend the state Constitution to ban abortion. Prior to the vote, polls indicated a tight race, with the anti-abortion vote having the edge by 2 to 3 points. Yet, as we now know, the vote against this law was defeated by 18 points.



It is a theory, which I now believe, that there is a segment of the public, including women, that will tell a pollster one thing, yet vote otherwise.



Think about it. When my wife and I go to the polling station, she may tell me she is voting for X, but she may actually vote for Y. I can't do anything but accept her word, since her vote is secret.



I have noted before, before the 2020 race, that the science of polling was in a flux. Polling initially was begun by Mr. Gallop in the early 1930s, but he had to rely on literally asking people walking in the streets for their opinion. He tried to be scientific, by pulling over people that he thought 'looked' like a demographic. But his results were poor.



He did better when most households began to have land-based telephones. Yet, even in those early days, he would be wrong. Witness the "Dewey Wins" photo (look it up).



As the years passed, Mr. Gallop became more scientific in his telephone polling (as more households had phones), and his results became more accurate.



Then, the Internet was introduced, followed by cell phones.



Internet polling was ignored. As for cell phones, they were rare until Apple reared its head.



Note to the young: in the early days, to use a phone in your car, you needed an antennae. Oddly enough, stores sold fake car-phone antennas, so people would think you owned a car phone (which was different from a 'cell' phone).



Apple introduced their cellular iPhone in 2007. Think of that. Only 15 years ago. Yet, it became a hit, selling millions.



It is now estimated that 97 percent of Americans have a cell phone. See:



https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/


Many, like myself (and I only did this two years ago) have discarded their landlines and have only cell phones. The percentage of Americans that still have a landline phone is fast decreasing, with the majority of those still having such phones limited to the elderly. Of course, many of these also have a cell phone.



As such, polling again has to change.



I see many polls that cite a combination of landlines, cell phones and Internet sampling. Internet?



Kansas: Why was the polling so wrong? Were the pollsters only calling landlines, hence older people? Were they including 'internet' polls? I have no idea.



But wrong they were.


Also in the 19th district of New York.



I think that this upcoming election is a 'societal' election. People may tell a pollster that they are 'worried about the economy', but once inside the voting booth, they will think about how Republicans are pushing for women that obtain an abortion to be jailed, even executed, as well as the doctors. Of how some Republicans have opined that a woman of child-bearing age must show that she is not pregnant, before being allowed to leave the state. Of how women must provide data concerning their periods.



Yes, these women may not like paying higher prices for gas and food, but they will look at the alternative advanced by Trump Republicans.



They will vote accordingly.
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Old 10-16-2022, 07:23 PM
 
6,758 posts, read 13,969,062 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SanJuanStar View Post
With the House gone and the GOP taking majority, taking the Senate by 1 or 2 seats would be enough to stop any agenda from Biden, making him lame duck President for 2 years.

That would be a huge failure for Democrats. They lost 14 seats in the house in 2020 and will lose majority in 2022 and if they lose the Senate then they barely had a 1 vote majority for 2 years. They only held majority in the house for 4 years and a 1 vote majority in the Senate for 2 years (if they lose the Senate. Worst scenario it's 50-50 tie)


Add that the GOP will expand their governorship 30 GOP states to 20 Democrat.



Out of 7,383 state legislative seats total in the nation: GOP has 1,092 state Senate seats to 863 Democrats. GOP has 2,902 state House seats to 2,408 Demcorats. https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_com...e_legislatures

Add the Supreme Court is 6 to 3 Republican.


It looks pretty bad for the Democrats with Biden/Harris for 2024 to fix it and expand. They have 2 years to build the party and they are the wrong people. I can see how the Democrats will dump Biden for 2024.


They will have the same issue as the democrats with such a small majority. They have a Manchin in their mist and once a senator finds out he can hold the whole party as a hostage he/she will do so. This should be a easy win for the GOP instead there this a good chance they could lose again. Like I stated this should have been a landslide but it will be a trickle if they can flip it.
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Old 10-16-2022, 07:30 PM
 
13,376 posts, read 4,227,870 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grainraiser View Post
They will have the same issue as the democrats with such a small majority. They have a Manchin in their mist and once a senator finds out he can hold the whole party as a hostage he/she will do so. This should be a easy win for the GOP instead there this a good chance they could lose again. Like I stated this should have been a landslide but it will be a trickle if they can flip it.
They will take the house. By winning 14 seats in 2020 they don't have to win at lot. The Senate was always close since 2018. Whoever wins will have 1 or 2 seat advantage or a tie.

This is bad for Biden because he is in the W.H. and wants to push his big agenda.
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Old 10-20-2022, 02:12 PM
 
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
11,974 posts, read 25,406,804 times
Reputation: 12187
While Roe v Wade ruling still hurts GOP it's now been long enough that the shock factor, plus many state have referendums on state abortion laws as an outlet for anger about the decision beyond senate races. In 50/50 races any small shift in swing voters is a huge deal. Roe probably ends GOP hopes in PA but not OH or WI.
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Old 10-20-2022, 02:48 PM
 
Location: The Piedmont of North Carolina
5,881 posts, read 2,749,510 times
Reputation: 7426
Real Clear Politics now projects the Republican Party winning fifty-three seats in the Senate.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rojection.html
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Old 10-20-2022, 03:22 PM
 
13,376 posts, read 4,227,870 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FordBronco1967 View Post
Real Clear Politics now projects the Republican Party winning fifty-three seats in the Senate.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rojection.html
LMAO!!!!! the house of cards is crumbling down for Democrats. Lake is doing so well in Arizona that she is helping Masters. Colorless mumbling Hobbs is done and the border crisis is pulling Kelly down.

You have Ducey, DeSantis, Youngskin, Trump, Pence, Cruz, Tulsi coming down for Lake/Masters and nobody is coming for Kelly or Hobbs not even Biden is wanted by the Democrats to come.
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Old 10-20-2022, 03:31 PM
 
Location: West Palm Beach, FL
17,455 posts, read 6,784,373 times
Reputation: 16331
Quote:
Originally Posted by FordBronco1967 View Post
Real Clear Politics now projects the Republican Party winning fifty-three seats in the Senate.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rojection.html
That's pretty remarkable.

If that map is accurate, it means that the Democrats will have lost each and every swing state with a Senate election in 2022.
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